I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local
economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This
information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
MARCH 2013
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 7100 jobs in Jan 2013, compared with a revised 5,200 job losses in Dec 2012.
Compared to Jan 2012, Illinois has added 62,700 jobs. The three-month moving average of
jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 3,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 119,000 jobs at a rate of 0.09%, compared with a revised 219,000 job
gains in Dec 2012. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 195,000 jobs per
month.
The Rest of the Midwest (RMW) added 26,600 jobs in Jan at a rate of 0.14% after a revised
13,800 job gains in Dec 2012. The three-month moving average was up by 15,500 jobs per
month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes
31 times and positive job gains 30 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of
207,900 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 195,800 new jobs.
By Feb 2013, sector Leisure & hospitality have recovered to its previous employment peak
levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will
increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial
activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality. For sectors such as
Construction and Information, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.3%, 14.0% and
12.1%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.0%, 7.4% and 7.9%.
Through Jan 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 9.71%, 12.07%, and 23.51%, respectively.
FEB 2013
February
2013
Positive
Total NonFarm
Employment
E MP LOY M E N T C HA RT
Dec 2012–Jan 2013
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
Jan 2013
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Growth Rate
%
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.09
119,000
1.51
2,001,000
12.1%
RMW*
0.14
26,600
0.97
183,500
14.0%
Illinois
0.12
7,100
1.10
62,700
11.3%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force
participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – J A N 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LAST
12 M O N T H S T N F E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E F E B 2012 – J A N 2013
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
0.30%
0.25%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.10%
-0.15%
3
Jan-13
TOTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E B Y S E C TO R S
D E C 2012 – J A N 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
Nation
S HA D OW
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
RMW
1.20%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently
unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has
declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does
not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has
estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be
observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.







In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been
only 66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow
unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has
increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has
increased significantly since 2008.
To bring the two together a further 181,500 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Jan 2013
5,780,000
185,000
583,600
1,163,900
99,600
370,800
868,500
877,300
538,600
252,300
830,000
Jan 2014 (p)
5,842,800
177,800
586,700
1,178,400
99,500
379,200
879,600
898,600
549,600
254,200
839,300
Number of Jobs
Growth Rate %
47,700~62,800
-7,200
3,100
14,500
-100
8,400
11,100
21,300
11,000
1,900
9,300
0.83%~1.09%
-3.89%
0.53%
1.25%
-0.10%
2.27%
1.28%
2.43%
2.04%
0.75%
1.12%
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Dec 2013*
Dec 2013
(p)*
Bloomington-Normal
90,3900
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
Chicago
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
89,700
-700~-100
-0.75%~-0.12%
-
GOV (4.1%)
INF (-10.1%)
103,600
102,700
-900~-800
-0.86%~-0.73%
-
PRO (0.7%)
MAN (-3.8%)
4,065,500
4,070,100
4,600~5,300
0.11%~0.13%
+
TTU (3.6%)
CON (-9.7%)
176,400
174,100
-2,300~-1,500
-1.27%~-0.85%
-
EDU (0.7%)
INF (-6.4%)
51,200
51,100
-100~300
-0.20%~0.54%
-
GOV (1.3%)
ING (-3.3%)
Kankakee
43,800
43,900
100~400
0.29%~0.95%
+
CON (1.3%)
FIN (-2.7%)
Peoria
180,300
180,200
-100~900
-0.06%~0.60%
-
PRO (1.9%)
TTU (-1.6%)
Rockford
145,900
143,200
-2,700~-2,100
-1.85%~-1.44%
-
PRO (1.4%)
CON (-12.1%)
Springfield
112,400
113,100
700~1,200
0.63%~1.09%
+
PRO (4.0%)
INF (-5.5%)
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
85000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
4000000
180000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
150000
2012
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
2008
2010
2012
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
44000
58000
42000
56000
40000
54000
38000
52000
36000
50000
34000
48000
32000
46000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
30000
2012
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
120000
2012
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2012
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- Jan
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
91,700 jobs/year
124,900 jobs/year
In 8 years
57,300 jobs/year
78,100 jobs/year
In 10 years
45,900 jobs/year
62,400 jobs/year
In 15 years
30,600 jobs/year
41,600 jobs/year
* The figure 654,300 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest
point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 181,500, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and
official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 654,300.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June
2010.
*** The figure 195,800 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Jan 2013.
9
.
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Jan 2013
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
Job Changes
in Jan 2010Jan 2013
Recovery
Rate
Forecasted
Job Changes
Jan 2010-Jan
2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-18,900
-29.62%
-26,100
-40.91%
Manufacturing
-114,500
28,700
25.07%
31,800
27.77%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
43,000
44.28%
57,500
59.22%
Information
-11,300
-4,800
-42.48%
-4,900
-43.36%
Financial activities
-32,700
5,800
17.74%
14,200
43.43%
Professional & business services
-92,700
87,600
94.50%
98,700
106.47%
Education & health
32,200
55,800
--
77,100
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
26,700
119.73%
37,700
169.06%
Other Services
-6,300
-3,300
-52.38%
-1,400
-22.22%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-26,300
--
-17,000
--


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10
Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education &
health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive
job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered
25.07%, 44.28%, 17.74%, 94.50%,119.73%, respectively, from the
job lost during the recession.
By Feb 2013, sector Leisure & hospitality have recovered to its
previous employment peak levels.
However, Construction, Information and Other services
continued to lose jobs leading to negative recovery rates of 29.62%, -42.48% and -52.38% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality.
For sectors such as Construction and Information, they will
continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
121.19
(Jan 2013)
110.57
(Jan 2013)
108.06
(Jan 2013)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
138.48
(Dec 2012)
105.79
(Dec 2012)
108.04
(Dec 2012)
109.77
(Dec 2012)
98.44
(Dec 2012)
121.29
(Dec 2012)
116.72
(Dec 2012)
108.07
(Dec 2012)
105.97
(Dec 2012)
106.65
(Dec 2012)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Nation
RMW
IL
Recovery rates
at Feb 2013**
56.70%
51.25%
47.88%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
38.09%
26.75%
44.73%
41.05%
NA
56.00%
58.78%
35.63%
52.67%
13.86%
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are
coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN DECEMBER
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy,
tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24
months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 85.6 in December from 82.8 in
November. The rise is attributed mainly to nationwide improvement in major sectors such as
manufacturing, nonmanufacturing, construction, and retail.

In December, the national and regional economy shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve
Board announced that total industrial (manufacturing) production rose 0.3% (0.8%) in December
after having increased 1.0% (1.3%) in November. Capacity utilization in all industry
(manufacturing) increased to 78.8% (77.4%) in December from 78.7% (76.9%) in November.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to
+0.02 in December from +0.27 in November due to negative contributions of the consumption and
housing category. In the Chicago region, manufacturing output, measured by the Chicago Fed
Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI), increased 0.7% in December and was mainly attributed
by improvement of production in auto industry. Employment in manufacturing was unchanged
while nonmanufacturing employment decreased 0.06% in December. Employment in construction
decreased 0.51% and retail sales are estimated to have fallen 0.02% in December.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to continue to maintain its modest, but slow
recovery trend. The CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below
its historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment
increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.9%. Considering
recent national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is
expected to continue its modest improving trend over the next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
CBAI (Current: 85.6)
trend
101.5
100
85.6
84.2
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
82.8
84.2
101.5
Forecast (ahead)
87.0
87.1
-
82.8
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/06
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (2nd to 8th) experienced the deepest fall this
month.

Metro-East (1st to 4th) and Chicago (3rd to 5th) dropped in terms of rank from
last month.

The most remarkable upward move in December was recorded for Kankakee (6th
to 1st).

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (5th to 2nd), Bloomington-Normal (4th to 3st),
Springfield (8th to 6th) also gained in terms of rank from last month.

Rockford, Peoria and Decatur remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (6th to 1st), Bloomington-Normal (8th to 4th), and
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (9th to 8th).

In the 12 months growth league table, downward moves were recorded for
Kankakee (1st to 2nd), Chicago (2nd to 3rd), Springfield (3rd to 5th), Metro-East
(4th to 6th) and Peoria (5th to 9th).

Rockford and Decatur remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur remained in the last place and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul climbed up to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data
are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Nov 2012
Dec 2012
Rank
Change**
1
Metro-East (0.2%)
Kankakee (0.58%)
1
(+5)
2
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.16%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.39%)
2
(+3)
3
Chicago (0.11%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.31%)
3
(+1)
4
Bloomington-Normal (-0.23%)
Metro-East (0.07%)
4
(-3)
5
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.25%)
Chicago (-0.1%)
5
(-2)
6
Kankakee (-0.55%)
Springfield (-0.29%)
6
(+2)
7
Rockford (-0.56%)
Rockford (-0.67%)
7
(+0)
8
Springfield (-0.66%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-1.21%)
8
(-6)
9
Peoria (-0.7%)
Peoria (-1.68%)
9
(+0)
10
Decatur (-1.38%)
Decatur (-2.03%)
10
(+0)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Nov 2012
Dec 2012
Rank
Change**
1
Kankakee (1.12%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2.66%)
1
(+5)
2
Chicago (0.94%)
Kankakee (2.27%)
2
(-1)
3
Springfield (0.88%)
Chicago (1.07%)
3
(-1)
4
Metro-East (0.78%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.94%)
4
(+4)
5
Peoria (0.44%)
Springfield (0.36%)
5
(-2)
6
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.39%)
Metro-East (0.03%)
6
(-2)
7
Rockford (0.28%)
Rockford (-0.39%)
7
(+0)
8
Bloomington-Normal (-0.07%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.52%)
8
(+1)
9
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.11%)
Peoria (-1.56%)
9
(-4)
10
Decatur (-1.44%)
Decatur (-3.46%)
10
(+0)
*** MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15