I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local
economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This
information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
MARCH 2013
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 12,400 jobs in Feb 2013, compared with a revised 4,600 job gains in Jan 2013.
Compared to Feb 2012, Illinois has added 64,300 jobs. The three-month moving average of
jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 3,900 jobs per month.
The Nation added 236,000 jobs at a rate of 0.18%, compared with a revised 119,000 job
gains in Jan 2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 191,300 jobs per
month.
The Rest of the Midwest (RMW) added 55,700 jobs in Feb at a rate of 0.29% after a revised
38,700 job gains in Jan 2013. The three-month moving average was up by 36,100 jobs per
month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes
31 times and positive job gains 31 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of
198,000 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 205,700 new jobs.
By Feb 2013, sectors Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery
forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business
services and Leisure & hospitality. For sectors such as Construction and Information, they
will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.7%, 13.9% and
12.0%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.5%, 7.5% and 7.7%.
Through Feb 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared
to January 1990 stood at 9.93%, 12.47%, and 23.73%, respectively.
MAR 2013
March
2013
Positive
Total NonFarm
Employment
E MP LOY M E N T C HA RT
Jan 2013–Feb 2013
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
Feb 2013
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Growth Rate
%
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.18
236,000
1.48
1,966,000
12.0%
RMW*
0.29
55,700
1.07
202,700
13.9%
Illinois
0.21
12,400
1.12
64,300
11.7%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force
2
participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – F E B 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LAST
12 M O N T H S T N F E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E M A R 2012 – F E B 2013
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
0.35%
0.30%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.10%
-0.15%
3
Feb-13
TOTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E B Y S E C TO R S
J A N 2013 – F E B 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation
S HA D OW
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently
unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has
declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does
not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has
estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be
observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.







In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been
only 66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow
unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has
increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has
increased significantly since 2008.
To bring the two together a further 209,100 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
Feb 2013
5,789,900
187,400
582,400
1,166,400
99,100
371,000
875,600
875,200
540,100
251,500
830,800
Feb 2014 (p)
5,865,400
183,700
585,100
1,180,000
98,000
378,700
900,400
896,700
550,800
252,900
839,100
Number of Jobs
63,900~75,500
-3,700
2,700
13,600
-1,100
7,700
24,800
21,500
10,700
1,400
8,300
Growth Rate %
1.10%~1.30%
-1.97%
0.46%
1.17%
-1.11%
2.08%
2.83%
2.46%
1.98%
0.56%
1.00%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
92,200
200~800
0.23%~0.82%
+
LEI (2.5%)
INF (-8.4%)
107,000
107,000
0~500
0.02%~0.46%
+
INF (2.0%)
GOV (-3.1%)
4,129,700
4,144,200
14,400~28,500
0.35%~0.69%
+
FIN (3.1%)
CON (-6.2%)
183,700
183,300
-400~600
-0.22%~-0.31%
-
EDU (1.3%)
INF (-6.1%)
51,400
51,300
-100~--40
-0.19%~ -0.08%
-
GOV (3.4%)
ING (-3.2%)
Kankakee
44,000
44,400
400~700
0.86%~1.59%
+
OTH (6.9%)
TTU (-0.9%)
Peoria
184,100
185,300
1,200~2,000
0.67%~-1.07%
+
PRO (2.3%)
CON (-0.4%)
Rockford
149,100
149,700
600~-2,300
0.39%~1.52%
+
GOV (2.9%)
CON (-12.8%)
Springfield
111,700
111,600
-100~400
-0.08%~0.38%
-
PRO (3.9%)
INF (-12.7%)
MSAs
Jan
2013*
Jan 2014
(p)*
Bloomington-Normal
92,000
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
Chicago
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
85000
1990
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
165000
3600000
160000
3400000
155000
150000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
44000
58000
42000
56000
40000
54000
38000
52000
36000
50000
34000
48000
32000
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
30000
1990
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
1990
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- Feb
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
95,200 jobs/year
130,400 jobs/year
In 8 years
59,500 jobs/year
81,500 jobs/year
In 10 years
47,600 jobs/year
65,200 jobs/year
In 15 years
31,700 jobs/year
43,500 jobs/year
* The figure 681,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest
point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 209,100, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and
official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 681,900.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June
2010.
*** The figure 205,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Feb 2013.
9
.
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Feb 2013
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
Job Changes
in Jan 2010Feb 2013
Recovery
Rate
Forecasted
Job Changes
Jan 2010-Feb
2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-16,500
-25.86%
-20,200
-31.66%
Manufacturing
-114,500
27,500
24.02%
30,200
26.38%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
45,500
46.86%
59,100
60.87%
Information
-11,300
-5,300
-46.90%
-6,400
-56.64%
Financial activities
-32,700
6,000
18.35%
13,700
41.90%
Professional & business services
-92,700
94,700
102.16%
119,500
128.91%
Education & health
32,200
53,700
--
75,200
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
28,200
126.46%
38,900
174.44%
Other Services
-6,300
-4,100
-65.08%
-2,700
-42.86%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-25,500
--
-17,200
--


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10
Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education &
health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive
job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered
24.02%, 46.86%, 18.35%, 102.16%, 126.46%, respectively, from
the job lost during the recession
By Feb 2013, sectors Professional & business services and Leisure
& hospitality have recovered to their previous employment peak
levels.
However, Construction, Information and Other services
continued to lose jobs leading to negative recovery rates of 25.86%, -46.90% and -65.08% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality.
For sectors such as Construction and Information, they will
continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
121.93
(Feb 2013)
111.28
(Feb 2013)
108.68
(Feb 2013)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
139.02
(Jan 2013)
106.62
(Jan 2013)
108.32
(Jan 2013)
109.72
(Jan 2013)
98.69
(Jan 2013)
122.88
(Jan 2013)
117.50
(Jan 2013)
108.53
(Jan 2013)
106.11
(Jan 2013)
109.73
(Jan 2013)
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Nation
RMW
IL
Recovery rates
at Feb 2013**
59.86%
55.18%
50.95%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
65.36%
42.21%
50.57%
51.53%
NA
61.34%
55.35%
37.03%
80.94%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are
coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN JANUARY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy,
tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24
months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 83.2 in January from 88.0 in December.
The fall is attributed mainly to a decline in nationwide economic activities measured by the
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).

In January, the national and regional economy shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that total industrial production unchanged in January after having increased 0.3% in
December. Capacity utilization in all industry little changed at 79.2% in January.

The Chicago Fed reported that CFNAI decreased to -0.32 in January from +0.25 in December due
to negative contributions of all but employment-related indicators: production, consumption, and
sales. In the Chicago region, employment in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing increased
0.66% and 0.38% in January, respectively. Employment in construction increased 1.08% and retail
sales are estimated to have risen 2.50% in January.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to continue to maintain its modest, but slow
recovery trend. The economic growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary
pressure from economic activity over the coming year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February, and the unemployment
rate edged down to 7.7%. Considering recent national economic conditions and movements of
projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its modest improving trend over the
next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
114.8
CBAI (Current: 83.2)
trend
100
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
88.0
77.2
114.8
88.0
83.2
80
77.2
Forecast (ahead)
89.5
90.5
below
trend
60
40
20
01/06
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Kankakee (2nd to 7th) and Metro-East (4th to 10th) experienced the deepest fall
this month.

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1st to 3rd) and Rockford (7th to 8th) dropped in
terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in December was recorded for DavenportRock Island-Moline (8th to 2nd).

Peoria (10th to 5th) also gained in terms of rank from last month.

Springfield and Decatur remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for
Bloomington-Normal (7th to 4th), Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (6th to 5th),
Springfield (9th to 8th) and Decatur (10th to 9th).

In the 12 months growth league table, downward moves were recorded for Peoria
(5th to 6th), Kankakee (4th to 7th) and Metro-East (8th to 10th).

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul, Rockford and Chicago remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Metro-East remained in the last place and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul climbed up to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data
are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Dec 2012
Jan 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.02%)
Bloomington-Normal (1.21%)
1
(+2)
2
Kankakee (0.25%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.52%)
2
(+6)
3
Bloomington-Normal (-0.02%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.51%)
3
 (-2)
4
Metro-East (-0.04%)
Chicago (0.5%)
4
 (+1)
5
Chicago (-0.17%)
Peoria (0.34%)
5
(+5)
6
Springfield (-0.3%)
Springfield (0.24%)
6
 (+0)
7
Rockford (-0.37%)
Kankakee (0.19%)
7
 (-5)
8
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.6%)
Rockford (0.05%)
8
(-1)
9
Decatur (-1.01%)
Decatur (-0.13%)
9
(+0)
10
Peoria (-1.03%)
Metro-East (-1.17%)
10
 (-6)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Dec 2012
Jan 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2.85%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2.48%)
1
 (+0)
2
Rockford (2.27%)
Rockford (1.95%)
2
 (+0)
3
Chicago (1.22%)
Chicago (1.46%)
3
 (+0)
4
Kankakee (1.12%)
Bloomington-Normal (1.36%)
4
(+3)
5
Peoria (0.83%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (1.23%)
5
 (+1)
6
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.58%)
Peoria (0.51%)
6
(-1)
7
Bloomington-Normal (0.48%)
Kankakee (0.04%)
7
 (-3)
8
Metro-East (0.4%)
Springfield (-0.95%)
8
(+1)
9
Springfield (-1.03%)
Decatur (-3.52%)
9
 (+1)
10
Decatur (-3.09%)
Metro-East (-3.57%)
10
 (-2)
*
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15