The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
APRIL 2013

EMP LOY ME NT DA TA SUMM ARY
 Illinois shed 17,800 jobs in Mar 2013, compared with a revised 15,300 job gains in Feb 2013.
Compared to March 2012, Illinois has added 36,600 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 1,100 jobs per month.
 The Nation added 88,000 jobs at a rate of 0.07%, compared with a revised 268,000 job gains in Feb 2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 168,000 jobs per month.
 The Rest of the Midwest (RMW) shed 62,000 jobs in Feb at a rate of -0.32% after a revised
54,000 job gains in Feb. The three-month moving average was up by 10,200 jobs per month.
 Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes
32 times and positive job gains 31 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of
211,700 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
 Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 192,000 new jobs.
 By Mar 2013, sector Leisure & hospitality has recovered to its previous employment peak level while sector Professional & business services is almost recovered to its previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality. For sectors such as
Construction and Information, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
 The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.2%, 13.9% and
12.2%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.5%, 7.4% and 7.6%.
 Through Mar 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 9.64%, 12.10%, and 23.87%, respectively.
E MP LOY MENT C HA RT
March
2013
Total Non-
Farm
Employment
Feb 2013–Mar 2013
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
0.07 88,000
Last 12 months
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
1.43 1,910,000
Mar 2013
Shadow
U.R. **
12.2%
-0.32 -62,000 0.52 99,800 13.9%
-0.31 -17,800 0.64 36,600 12.2%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2

T OTAL N O N FA RM E M PLOYME NT GROWTH R AT E J AN 1990 – M A R 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
100.00
National RMW IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LAST 12 M O NTHS T NF EMPL OYM ENT G ROWT H R ATE A P R 2012 – M AR 2013
Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
0.40%
Nation RMW IL
0.30%
-0.40%
TOTAL N O N FA RM EM PLOYME NT GROWTH R ATE B Y S ECTO RS F EB 2013 – M A R 2013
3

-2.00% -1.50% -1.00%
Nation
-0.50% 0.00%
RMW
0.50%
HA DOW UN E MPLOY MEN T
IL
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
1.00%
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.
 In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only 66.6%.
 For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
 In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
 The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
 For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has increased significantly since 2008.
 To bring the two together a further 182,900 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
 The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

14%
12%
6%
4%
2%
0%
12%
10%
8%

14%
Unemployment Rate Shadow Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate Shadow Unemployment Rate
5

E
F
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
Mar 2013
5,776,200
185,900
583,200
1,157,900
99,700
371,200
870,200
879,300
535,600
253,100
829,800
Mar 2014 (p)
5,793,800
181,200
584,600
1,151,000
99,200
376,600
877,400
895,600
540,900
253,700
833,500
Number of Jobs
17,600~42,400
-4,700
1,400
-6,900
-500
5,400
7,200
16,300
5,300
600
3,700
Growth Rate %
0.30%~0.73%
-2.53%
0.24%
-0.60%
-0.50%
1.45%
0.83%
1.85%
0.99%
0.24%
0.45%
6000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6

MSAs
Feb
2013*
Bloomington-Normal
Champaign-Urbana-
Rantoul
Chicago
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
90,100
106,000
4,130,100
185,400
51,100
44,100
183,900
149,700
Springfield 112,400
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Feb 2014
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
90,200 100~-500 0.06%~0.58%
107,200 1,200~2,300 1.14%~-2.13%
4,170,900 22,400~40,800 0.54%~0.99%
185,900
51,300
44,400
185,100
150,800
112,200
500~-1,900
200~400
300~400
1,200~2,000
1,200~2,100
-300~300
0.25%~-1.00%
0.46%~0.83%
0.63%~0.92%
0.66%~1.07%
0.80%~1.44%
-0.23%~0.23%
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
Growth
+
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
GOV (2.8%)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
INF (-8.5%)
INF (5.2%) MAN (-2.3%)
MAN (2.1%) CON (-10.7%)
PRO (1.8%) INF (-5.8%)
MAN (4.6%)
OTH (6.3%)
ING (-3.5%)
LEI (-1.3%)
PRO (2.3%) CON (-0.6%)
PRO (3.3%) CON (-12.3%)
PRO (3.5%) INF (-14.5%)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
90000
85000
115000
110000
80000
75000
105000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
85000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
4200000
4000000
3800000
3600000
3400000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
3200000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
190000
185000
180000
175000
170000
165000
160000
155000
150000
1990 1992 1994
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
7

52000
50000
48000
46000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
60000
58000
56000
54000
44000
1990
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
1992 1994
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
46000
44000
42000
40000
38000
36000
34000
32000
2014
Year
30000
1990
190000
180000
170000
160000
150000
140000
130000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
165000
160000
155000
150000
145000
140000
135000
130000
125000
120000
1990 1992 1994 1996
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990 1992 1994
120000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
1996 1998 2000
1992
2002
1994
2004
1996
2006
1998
2008
2000
2010
2002
2012
2004
2014
Year
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
8

At the point of
2013-March
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years 92,700 jobs/year 125,200 jobs/year
In 8 years
In 10 years
58,000 jobs/year 78,200 jobs/year
46,400 jobs/year 62,600 jobs/year
In 15 years 30,900 jobs/year 41,700 jobs/year
* The figure 681,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 209,100, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 681,900.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June
2010.
*** The figure 205,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Feb 2013.
9

I
J
R
S
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Mar 2013
Construction
Manufacturing
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
-63,800
-114,500
Job Changes in Jan 2010-
Mar 2013
-18,000
28,300
Recovery
Rate
-28.21%
24.72%
Forecasted
Job Changes
Jan 2010-Nov
2013
-22,700
29,700
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
-35.58%
25.94%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) -97,100 37,000 38.11% 30,100 31.00%
Information
Financial activities
Professional & business services
-11,300
-32,700
-92,700
-4,700
6,200
89,300
-41.59%
18.96%
96.33%
-5,200
11,600
96,500
-46.02%
35.47%
104.10%
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other Services
32,200
-22,300
-6,300
57,800
23,700
-2,500
--
106.28%
-39.68%
74,100
29,000
-1,900
--
130.04%
-30.16%
Government 5,600 -26,500 -- -22,800 --
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
Recovery by
Sector
 During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10
Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
 Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered
24.72%, 38.11%, 18.96%, 96.33%, 106.28%, respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
 By Mar 2013, Leisure & hospitality has recovered to its previous employment peak level while sector Professional & business services is almost recovered to its previous employment peak level.
 However, Construction, Information and Other services continued to lose jobs leading to negative recovery rates of -
28.21%, -41.59% and -39.68% respectively.
 The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing,
Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure
& hospitality.
 For sectors such as Construction and Information, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
10

C
S
*
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
122.12
(Mar 2013)
111.51
(Mar 2013)
108.95
(Mar 2013)
Metro Areas***:
139.35
(Feb 2013)
106.06
(Feb 2013)
108.89
(Feb 2013)
111.12
(Feb 2013)
98.61
(Feb 2013)
122.58
(Feb 2013)
118.75
(Feb 2013)
108.72
(Feb 2013)
106.00
(Feb 2013)
107.58
(Feb 2013)
Positive growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative growth
Positive growth
Positive growth
Positive growth
Positive growth
Positive growth
Positive growth
Positive growth
Negative growth
**
61.86%
50.69%
47.56%
13.92%
27.47%
51.42%
60.66%
-15.56%
64.62%
61.55%
38.86%
85.08%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11

This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 99.3 in February from 89.3 in January.
The rise is attributed to the increase in Chicago area employment in non-manufacturing and construction and to improved nationwide economic activities in major sectors.

In February, the national and regional economy shared positive features. The Federal Reserve
Board announced that total industrial (manufacturing) production increased 0.7% (0.8%) in
February and that capacity utilization in all industry (manufacturing) recorded 79.6% (78.3%) in
February, up from 79.2% (77.8%) in the previous month.

The Chicago Fed reported that CFNAI increased to +0.44 in February from -0.49 in January due to positive contributions of all four categories: production, employment, consumption, and sales.
In the Chicago region, compared with the previous month, employment in non-manufacturing and construction increased 0.16% and 0.42% in February, respectively. Employment in manufacturing decreased 0.17% and retail sales are estimated to have fallen 1.64% in February.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its modest recovery trend. The economic growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 88,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.6%. Considering recent national economic conditions and movements of projected
CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its modest improving trend over the next several months.
140
121.3
4 month forecast above trend 120
CBAI (Current: 99.3)
Historical (ago)
1 month 3 month 1 year
89.3 88.0 121.3
Forecast (ahead) 98.4 104.1 -
100
80
60
99.3 trend
88.0
89.3 below trend
40
20
01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13
12

 Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1st to 9th) and Bloomington-Normal (2nd to 10th) experienced the deepest fall this month.
 Springfield (3rd to 7th) and Chicago (5th to 8th) dropped in terms of rank from last month.
 The most remarkable upward move in December was recorded for Decatur (10th to 1st).
 Metro-East (9th to 3rd), Peoria (8th to 4th), Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (4th to
2nd), and Rockford (7th to 5th) also gained in terms of rank from last month.
 Kankakee remained in the same place.
 In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Rockford
(2nd to 1st), Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (4th to 2nd), Kankakee (6th to 5th),
Peoria (6th to 7th) and Springfield (7th to 8th).
 In the 12 months growth league table, downward moves were recorded for
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1st to 3rd), Chicago (3rd to 4th) and Bloomington-
Normal (5th to 8th).
 Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul, Rockford and Chicago remained in the same place.
 In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur remained in the last place and
Rockford climbed up to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13

7
8
9
10
3
4
1
2
5
6
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank Jan 2013 Feb 2013
7
8
5
6
9
3
4
1
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.9%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.94%)
Springfield (0.82%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.79%)
Chicago (0.42%)
Kankakee (0.22%)
Rockford (0.15%)
Peoria (-0.34%)
Metro-East (-1.15%)
10 Decatur (-1.83%)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank Jan 2013
Decatur (1.05%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.64%)
Metro-East (0.61%)
Peoria (0.56%)
Rockford (0.26%)
Kankakee (0.19%)
Springfield (0.11%)
Chicago (0.07%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-1.59%)
Bloomington-Normal (-1.72%)
Feb 2013
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2.43%) Rockford (2.25%)
Rockford (2.02%)
Chicago (1.4%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (1.4%)
Bloomington-Normal (1.01%)
Kankakee (0.04%)
Peoria (-0.16%)
Springfield (-0.4%)
Metro-East (-3.57%)
Decatur (-5.09%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (1.63%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.57%)
Chicago (1.36%)
Kankakee (0.73%)
Peoria (-0.17%)
Springfield (-0.32%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.83%)
Metro-East (-1.14%)
Decatur (-4.36%)
Rank Change**
1
2
3
4
 (+9)
 (+2)
 (+6)
 (+4)
7
8
5
6
9
10


(+2)
(+0)
 (-4)
 (-3)
 (-8)
 (-8)
Rank Change**
1  (+1)
2
3
4
5
6
7
 (+2)
 (-2)
 (-1)
 (+1)
 (+1)
 (+1)
8
9
10
 (-3)

(+0)

(+0)
* MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
40,000
Initial Claims (IL)
35,000
Initial Claims (US)
`
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
15