I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local
economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This
information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
JUNE 2013
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 5,600 jobs in May 2013, compared with a revised 1,900 job loss in Apr 2013.
Compared to May 2012, Illinois has added 49,100 jobs. The three-month moving average of
jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was down by 4,300 jobs per month.
The Nation added 175,000 jobs at a rate of 0.13%, compared with a revised 149,000 job
gains in Apr 2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 155,300 jobs per
month.
The Rest of the Midwest (RMW) added 78,000 jobs in May at a rate of 0.41% after a revised
7,500 job loss in Apr. The three-month moving average was up by 5,200 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes
33 times and positive job gains 32 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of
206,700 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 197,000 new jobs.
By May 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to its previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery
forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Financial
activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality, Information and Other
services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.3%, 13.5% and
12.0%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.1%, 7.3% and 7.6%.
Through May 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared
to January 1990 stood at 9.74%, 12.55%, and 24.27%, respectively.
JUNE 2013
June
2013
Positive
Total NonFarm
Employment
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
Apr 2013–May 2013
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
May 2013
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Growth Rate
%
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.13
175,000
1.58
2,115,000
12.0%
RMW*
0.41
78,000
0.92
176,100
13.5%
Illinois
0.10
5,600
0.86
49,100
12.3%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force
participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – M A Y 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LAST
12 M O N T H S T N F E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J U N 2012 – M AY 2013
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
TOTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E B Y S E C TO R S
A P R 2013 – M A Y 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
Nation
1.50%
2.00%
RMW
S HA D OW
2.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently
unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has
declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does
not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has
estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be
observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.







In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been
only 66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow
unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has
increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has
increased significantly since 2008.
To bring the two together a further 218,500 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
May 2013
5,781,200
181,500
580,300
1,155,600
100,300
372,100
879,700
880,000
540,500
255,200
825,700
May 2014 (p)
5,789,700
172,500
567,600
1,146,400
101,100
377,300
900,300
896,400
547,800
255,900
824,300
Number of Jobs
8,500~16,100
-9,000
-12,700
-9,200
800
5,200
20,600
16,400
7,300
700
-1,400
Growth Rate %
0.15%~ 0.28%
-4.96%
-2.19%
-0.80%
0.80%
1.40%
2.34%
1.86%
1.35%
0.27%
-0.17%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Apr 2013*
Apr 2014
(p)*
Bloomington-Normal
89,400
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
Chicago
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
88,600
-800~-100
-0.92%~-0.17%
-
GOV (0.9%)
INF (-9.6%)
105,400
105,100
-300~500
-0.30%~0.49%
-
INF (4.0%)
MAN (-4.3%)
4,132,600
4,152,000
8,700~19,500
0.21%~0.47%
+
EDU (2.2%)
MAN (-1.1%)
182,500
182,200
-300~200
-0.16%~0.13%
-
CON (1.4%)
INF (-5.4%)
50,400
50,400
0~200
0.00%~0.33%
+
PRO (3.6%)
INF (-3.6%)
Kankakee
44,000
44,400
500~600
1.07%~1.38%
+
EDU (3.1%)
TTU (-0.8%)
Peoria
182,300
183,400
1,100~1,200
0.62%~0.65%
+
PRO (3.1%)
MAN (-0.4%)
Rockford
148,600
148,600
0~800
-0.02%~0.56%
-
PRO (2.4%)
CON (-8.3%)
Springfield
111,400
111,600
300~700
0.25%~0.59%
+
PRO (3.7%)
INF (-10.3%)
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
165000
3600000
160000
3400000
155000
150000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1990
2012
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
58000
42000
56000
40000
54000
38000
52000
36000
50000
34000
48000
32000
46000
30000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1990
2012
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2012
2014
Year
118000
1990
2010
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- May
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
98,900 jobs/year
132,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
61,800 jobs/year
82,700 jobs/year
In 10 years
49,400 jobs/year
66,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
33,000 jobs/year
44,100 jobs/year
* The figure 691,300 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest
point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 218,500, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and
official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 691,300.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June
2010.
*** The figure 197,000 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through May 2013.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – May 2013
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
Job Changes
in Jan 2010Apr 2013
Recovery
Rate
Forecasted
Job Changes
Jan 2010-Apr
2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-22,400
-35.11%
-31,400
-49.22%
Manufacturing
-114,500
25,400
22.18%
12,700
11.09%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
34,700
35.74%
25,500
26.26%
Information
-11,300
-4,100
-36.28%
-3,300
-29.20%
Financial activities
-32,700
7,100
21.71%
12,300
37.61%
Professional & business services
-92,700
98,800
106.58%
119,400
128.80%
Education & health
32,200
58,500
--
74,900
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
28,600
128.25%
35,900
160.99%
Other Services
-6,300
-400
-6.35%
300
4.76%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-30,600
--
-32,000
--


Recovery by
Sector



During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10
Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education &
health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive
job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered
22.18%, 35.74%, 21.71%, 106.58%, 128.25%, respectively, from
the job lost during the recession.
By May 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have both recovered to its previous employment peak
level.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction,
Information and Other services are still negative, namely, 35.11%, -36.28% and -6.35% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Financial activities,
Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality,
Information and Other services.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
124.27
(May 2013)
112.55
(May 2013)
109.74
(May 2013)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates
at May 2013**
67.78%
56.15%
48.80%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
136.93
(Apr 2013)
106.87
(Apr 2013)
109.98
(Apr 2013)
110.23
(Apr 2013)
93.41
(Apr 2013)
122.63
(Apr 2013)
116.92
(Apr 2013)
110.25
(Apr 2013)
104.77
(Apr 2013)
106.47
(Apr 2013)
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
NA
19.29%
52.23%
38.84%
NA
56.52%
51.76%
34.05%
48.91%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are
coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN MARCH
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy,
tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24
months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 97.3 in April from 92.3 in March. The
rise is attributed to the increase in non-manufacturing employment and improved activities in
retail sector in the Chicago region.

In April, the national and regional economy shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that total industrial (manufacturing) production decreased 0.5% (0.4%) in April and
that capacity utilization in all industry (manufacturing) recorded 77.8% (75.9%) in April, down
from 78.3% (76.3%) in the previous month.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to 0.53 in April from -0.23 in March due to negative contributions of production, sales, and
consumption. Midwest manufacturing output measured by the Chicago Fed Midwest
Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) decreased 0.5% in April. In the Chicago region, compared with
the previous month, employment in non-manufacturing increased 0.06% while employment in
manufacturing and construction decreased 0.45% and 2.89% respectively in April. Retail sales are
estimated to have risen 2.14% in April.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its recovery trend. The economic
growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was near its
historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment
rose by 175,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%. Considering recent
national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is
expected to continue its modest improving trend over the next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
CBAI (Current: 97.3)
109.0
100
97.3
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
92.3
88.9
109.0
Forecast (ahead)
98.7
91.0
-
trend
92.3
88.9
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/06
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Kankakee (1st to 10th) experienced the deepest fall this month.

Bloomington-Normal (3rd to 4th), Rockford (5th to 6th) and Peoria (6th to 8th)
dropped in terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in April was recorded for Champaign-UrbanaRantoul (7th to 3rd).

Metro-East (4th to 1st), Springfield (8th to 5th) and Decatur (10th to 7th) also
gained in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (4th to 2nd), Metro-East (8th to 7th).

Downward moves were recorded for Kankakee (2nd to 4th) and Peoria (7th to
8th).

Rockford, Chicago, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline, Springfield, BloomingtonNormal and Decatur remained in the same place.

Decatur remained in the last place and Rockford climbed up to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data
are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Mar 2013
Apr 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Kankakee (0.28%)
Metro-East (0.29%)
1
(+3)
2
Chicago (-0.08%)
Chicago (0.02%)
2
 (+0)
3
Bloomington-Normal (-0.19%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.23%)
3
 (+4)
4
Metro-East (-0.2%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.28%)
4
 (-1)
5
Rockford (-0.27%)
Springfield (-0.43%)
5
(+3)
6
Peoria (-0.32%)
Rockford (-0.43%)
6
 (-1)
7
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.41%)
Decatur (-0.54%)
7
 (+3)
8
Springfield (-0.52%)
Peoria (-0.6%)
8
 (-2)
9
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.64%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.83%)
9
 (+0)
10
Decatur (-0.7%)
Kankakee (-0.95%)
10
 (-9)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Mar 2013
Apr 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Rockford (1.87%)
Rockford (1.12%)
1
 (+0)
2
Kankakee (1.18%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.09%)
2
 (+2)
3
Chicago (1.1%)
Chicago (1.04%)
3
 (+0)
4
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.06%)
Kankakee (0.62%)
4
 (-2)
5
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.11%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.29%)
5
 (+0)
6
Springfield (-0.68%)
Springfield (-0.99%)
6
 (+0)
7
Peoria (-0.89%)
Metro-East (-1.24%)
7
 (+1)
8
Metro-East (-1.2%)
Peoria (-1.42%)
8
 (-1)
9
Bloomington-Normal (-1.4%)
Bloomington-Normal (-2.02%)
9
 (+0)
10
Decatur (-4.87%)
Decatur (-5.66%)
10
 (+0)
*
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15