I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local
economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This
information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
JULY 2013
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 5,400 jobs in Jun 2013, compared with a revised 4,800 job gains in May 2013.
Compared to Jun 2012, Illinois has added 45,800 jobs. The three-month moving average of
jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 2,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 188,000 jobs at a rate of 0.14%, compared with a revised 176,000 job
gains in May 2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 187,700 jobs per
month.
The Rest of the Midwest (RMW) added 36,400 jobs in Jun at a rate of 0.19% after a revised
78,400 job gains in May. The three-month moving average was up by 35,800 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes
33 times and positive job gains also 33 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss
of 202,100 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 201,600 new jobs.
By Jun 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to its previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery
forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Financial
activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.6%, 13.6% and
12.0%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.2%, 7.4% and 7.6%.
Through Jun 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared
to January 1990 stood at 9.82%, 12.77%, and 24.49%, respectively.
JULY 2013
July
2013
Positive
Total NonFarm
Employment
E MP LOY M E N T C HA RT
May 2013– Jun 2013
Last 12 months
Number of
Jobs
Jun 2013
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Growth Rate
%
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.14
188,000
1.70
2,267,000
12.0%
RMW*
0.19
36,400
1.06
201,600
13.6%
Illinois
0.09
5,400
0.80
45,800
12.6%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force
participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – J U N 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LAST
Jul/12
0.50%
12 M O N T H S T N F E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J U L 2012 – J U N 2013
Aug/12
Nation
Sep/12
Oct/12
RMW
Nov/12
Dec/12
Jan/13
Feb/13
Mar/13
Apr/13
May/13
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Jun/13
TOTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E B Y S E C TO R S
M AY 2013 – J U N 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
Nation
S HA D OW
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
RMW
3.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently
unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has
declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does
not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has
estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be
observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.







In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been
only 66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow
unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has
increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has
increased significantly since 2008.
To bring the two together a further 234,100 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
Jun 2013
5,785,800
186,600
578,200
1,160,200
99,900
373,600
882,500
881,900
540,000
252,500
820,000
Jun 2014 (p)
5,809,700
183,200
564,000
1,158,900
100,300
380,300
908,200
897,800
546,500
252,200
818,300
Number of Jobs
23,900~34,100
-3,400
-14,200
-1,300
400
6,700
25,700
15,900
6,500
-300
-1,700
Growth Rate %
0.41%~0.59%
-1.82%
-2.46%
-0.11%
0.40%
1.79%
2.91%
1.80%
1.20%
-0.12%
-0.21%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
MSAs
May
2013*
May 2014
(p)*
Bloomington-Normal
90,600
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
Chicago
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
89,800
-800~-100
-0.91%~-0.07%
-
PRO (0.4%)
INF (-9.3%)
105,400
104,900
-400~-300
-0.40%~-0.26%
-
INF (3.3%)
MAN (-4.1%)
4,143,900
4,162,000
11,200~18,700
0.27%~0.45%
+
EDU (2.2%)
MAN (-2.3%)
183,400
183,200
-100~400
-0.07%~0.23%
-
EDU (1.9%)
INF (-4.7%)
50,500
50,100
-300~-100
-0.67%~-0.10%
-
PRO (3.6%)
INF (-3.7%)
Kankakee
44,100
44,500
300~400
0.76%~0.98%
+
INF (3.2%)
TTU (-1.4%)
Peoria
181,900
183,300
1,400~1,600
0.76%~0.86%
+
PRO (3.9%)
TTU (-0.6%)
Rockford
148,100
147,200
-900~-300
-0.61%~-0.19%
-
PRO (1.9%)
CON (-10.6%)
Springfield
111,800
111,800
0~200
0.00%~0.17%
+
PRO (3.4%)
INF (-13.5%)
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
4000000
180000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
150000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
60000
46000
58000
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
30000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
145000
160000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2012
2014
Year
118000
1990
2010
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- June
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
101,100 jobs/year
132,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
63,200 jobs/year
82,700 jobs/year
In 10 years
50,500 jobs/year
66,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
33,700 jobs/year
44,100 jobs/year
* The figure 706,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest
point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 234,100, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and
official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 706,900.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June
2010.
*** The figure 201,600 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Jun 2013.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Jun 2013
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
Job Changes
in Jan 2010Jun 2013
Recovery
Rate
Forecasted
Job Changes
Jan 2010-Jun
2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-17,300
-27.12%
-20,700
-32.45%
Manufacturing
-114,500
23,300
20.35%
9,100
7.95%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
39,300
40.47%
38,000
39.13%
Information
-11,300
-4,500
-39.82%
-4,100
-36.28%
Financial activities
-32,700
8,600
26.30%
15,300
46.79%
Professional & business services
-92,700
101,600
109.60%
127,300
137.32%
Education & health
32,200
60,400
--
76,300
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
28,100
126.01%
34,600
155.16%
Other Services
-6,300
-3,100
-49.21%
-3,400
-53.97%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-36,300
--
-38,000
--


Recovery by
Sector



During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10
Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education &
health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive
job growth during the recession.
Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered
20.35%, 40.47%, 26.30%, 109.60%, 126.01%, respectively, from
the job lost during the recession.
By Jun 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have both recovered to its previous employment peak
level.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction,
Information and Other services are still negative, namely, 27.12%, -39.82% and -49.21% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
124.49
(Jun 2013)
112.77
(Jun 2013)
109.82
(Jun 2013)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates
at May 2013**
70.98%
58.75%
49.94%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
138.73
(May 2013)
103.58
(May 2013)
110.39
(May 2013)
110.59
(May 2013)
93.61
(May 2013)
123.34
(May 2013)
116.94
(May 2013)
110.01
(May 2013)
105.13
(May 2013)
106.17
(May 2013)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
32.64%
NA
56.61%
43.76%
NA
65.43%
51.36%
27.66%
61.72%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are
coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN MAY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy,
tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24
months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 97.0 in May from 98.9 in April. The
fall is attributed to the decrease in manufacturing employment and activities in retail sector in the
Chicago region.

In May, the national and regional economy shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that total industrial production index unchanged at 98.7 and that capacity utilization in
all industry also little changed at 77.6% in May.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to 0.30 in May from -0.52 in April due to positive contributions of production and employment.
Midwest manufacturing output measured by the Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index
(CFMMI) decreased 0.4% in May. In the Chicago region, compared with the previous month,
employment in manufacturing and non-manufacturing increased 0.09% and 0.36% respectively.
Employment in construction increased 3.44% in May. Retail sales are estimated to have fallen
0.55% in May.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its modest recovery trend. The
economic growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was near
its historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment
rose by 195,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was unchanged ats 7.6%. Considering recent
national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is
expected to continue its modest improving trend over the next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
CBAI (Current: 97.0)
102.3
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
98.9
96.9
102.3
Forecast (ahead)
89.9
78.1
-
100
98.9
96.9
trend
97.0
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/06
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Metro-East (1st to 9th) experienced the deepest fall this month.

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (4th to 6th), Decatur (5th to 7th) and Rockford (7th
to 10th) dropped in terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in May was recorded for Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline (9th to 2nd).

Bloomington-Normal (2nd to 1st), Kankakee (10th to 4th) and Springfield (6th to
5th) also gained in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Chicago
(2nd to 1st), Bloomington-Normal (9th to 7th).

Downward moves were recorded for Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1st to 2nd),
Metro-East (7th to 8th) and Peoria (8th to 9th).

Rockford, Kankakee, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline, Springfield and Decatur
remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur remained in the last place and
Chicago climbed up to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data
are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Apr 2013
May 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Metro-East (0.27%)
Bloomington-Normal (1.21%)
1
(+1)
2
Bloomington-Normal (0.11%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.54%)
2
 (+7)
3
Chicago (0.01%)
Chicago (0.26%)
3
 (+0)
4
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.19%)
Kankakee (0.15%)
4
 (+6)
5
Decatur (-0.22%)
Springfield (0.1%)
5
(+1)
6
Springfield (-0.26%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.1%)
6
 (-2)
7
Rockford (-0.39%)
Decatur (-0.11%)
7
 (-2)
8
Peoria (-0.57%)
Peoria (-0.2%)
8
 (+0)
9
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.69%)
Metro-East (-0.3%)
9
 (-8)
10
Kankakee (-0.76%)
Rockford (-0.3%)
10
 (-3)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Apr 2013
May 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.16%)
Chicago (1.55%)
1
 (+1)
2
Chicago (1.15%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.19%)
2
 (-1)
3
Rockford (1.13%)
Rockford (0.96%)
3
 (+0)
4
Kankakee (0.95%)
Kankakee (0.73%)
4
 (+0)
5
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.33%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.16%)
5
 (+0)
6
Springfield (-0.68%)
Springfield (-0.35%)
6
 (+0)
7
Metro-East (-1.05%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.87%)
7
 (+2)
8
Peoria (-1.37%)
Metro-East (-1.19%)
8
 (-1)
9
Bloomington-Normal (-1.83%)
Peoria (-1.86%)
9
 (-1)
10
Decatur (-5.24%)
Decatur (-4.7%)
10
 (+0)
*
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15