I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local
economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This
information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
AUGUST 2013
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 6.600 jobs in July 2013, compared with a revised 8,300 job gain in June 2013.
Compared to July 2012, Illinois has added 55,500 jobs. The three-month moving average of
jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 6,567 jobs per month.
The Nation added 104,000 jobs at a rate of 0.08%, compared with a revised 172,000 job
gains in June 2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 150,700 jobs per
month.
The RMW added 40,500 jobs in July at a rate of 0.21% after a revised 39,300 job gains in
June. The three-month moving average was up by 52,700 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes
33 times and positive job gains also 34 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss
of 192,600 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 211,100 jobs.
By July 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to its previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery
forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Financial
activities, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 13.0%, 13.7% and
11.9%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.2%, 7.6% and 7.3%.
Through July 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared
to January 1990 stood at 10.00%, 13.02%, and 24.57%, respectively.
JULY 2013 EMPLOYMENT CHART
August
2013
Positive
Total NonFarm
Employment
Jun 2013–Jul 2013
Last 12 months
Jul 2013
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.08
104,000
1.65
2,202,000
13.0%
RMW*
0.21
40,500
1.37
260,900
13.7%
Illinois
0.11
6,600
0.97
55,500
11.9%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force
participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – J U L 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LAST
12 M O N T H S T N F E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J U N 2012 – J U L 2013
Aug/12 Sep/12 Oct/12 Nov/12 Dec/12 Jan/13 Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13 Jul/13
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
TOTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E B Y S E C TO R S
A P R 2013 – J U L 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation
S HA D OW
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently
unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has
declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does
not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has
estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be
observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.







In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been
only 66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow
unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has
increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has
increased significantly since 2008.
To bring the two together a further 258,300 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4

Illinois
14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

US
14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
July 2013
5,795,300
188,500
576,200
1,166,900
99,300
374,500
891,000
878,600
537,200
249,500
823,100
July 2014 (p)
5,845,200
188,400
560,400
1,177,800
98,600
381,600
930,500
896,300
542,600
248,900
820,200
Number of Jobs
49,900~67,000
-100
-15,800
10,900
-700
7,100
39,500
17,700
5,400
-600
-2,900
Growth Rate %
0.86%~1.16%
-0.05%
-2.74%
0.93%
-0.70%
1.90%
4.43%
2.01%
1.01%
-0.24%
-0.35%
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Growth
Sector
with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-0.25%~-0.13%
-
GOV (3.6%)
CON (-10.1%)
-500~-300
-0.40%~-0.26%
-
INF (2.1%)
MAN (-3.8%)
4,165,000
11,200~16,700
0.27%~0.40%
+
EDU (2.0%)
MAN (-2.5%)
184,000
184,200
200~400
0.11%~0.23%
+
EDU (1.6%)
INF (-3.1%)
50,260
50,000
-260~-100
-0.52%~-0.10%
-
PRO (3.8%)
INF (-3.0%)
Kankakee
43,610
43,610
0~300
0%~0.69%
+
INF (2.8%)
TTU (-2.2%)
Peoria
182,040
182,500
460~800
0.25%~0.44%
+
PRO (1.8%)
TTU (-2.6%)
Rockford
148,220
147,300
-900~-400
-0.62%~-0.27%
-
PRO (1.5%)
CON (-6.1%)
Springfield
111,690
111,600
-100~100
-0.08%~0.08%
-
PRO (2.5%)
INF (-7.8%)
Jun
2013*
Jun
2014
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth
Rate %
90,040
89,820
-230~-120
106,180
105,700
4,153,690
MSAs
BloomingtonNormal
ChampaignUrbana-Rantoul
Chicago
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
165000
3600000
160000
3400000
155000
150000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1990
2012
Year
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
7
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
58000
42000
56000
40000
54000
38000
52000
36000
50000
34000
48000
32000
46000
30000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1990
2012
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2012
2014
Year
118000
1990
2010
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- July
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
104,000 jobs/year
140,200 jobs/year
In 8 years
65,000 jobs/year
87,600 jobs/year
In 10 years
52,000 jobs/year
70,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
34,700 jobs/year
46,700 jobs/year
* The figure 731,000 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest
point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 258,300, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and
official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 731,000.
**The figure 13,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through July
2010.
*** The figure 211,100 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through July 2013.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from December 2007 – July 2013
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
Job Changes
in Jan 2010July 2013
Recovery
Rate
Forecasted
Job Changes
Jan 2010-July
2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-15,400
-24.14%
-15,500
-24.29%
Manufacturing
-114,500
21,300
18.60%
5,500
4.80%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
46,000
47.37%
56,900
58.60%
Information
-11,300
-5,100
-45.13%
-5,800
-51.33%
Financial activities
-32,700
9,500
29.05%
16,600
50.76%
Professional & business services
-92,700
110,100
118.77%
149,600
161.38%
Education & health
32,200
57,100
--
74,800
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
25,300
113.45%
30,700
137.67%
Other Services
-6,300
-6,100
-96.83%
-6,700
-106.35%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-33,200
--
-36,100
--


Recovery by
Sector



During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009,
8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth.
Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that
had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial
activities, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have recovered 18.60%, 47.37%, 29.05%, 118.77%,
113.45%, respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
By July 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have both recovered to its previous employment peak
level.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction,
Information and Other services are still negative, namely, 24.14%, -45.13% and -96.83% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Trade,
transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional
& business services and Leisure & hospitality.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
124.57
(Jul 2013)
113.02
(Jul 2013)
110.00
(Jul 2013)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates
at Jul 2013**
72.16%
61.80%
52.29%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
138.25
(Jun 2013)
107.56
(Jun 2013)
110.61
(Jun 2013)
111.37
(Jun 2013)
93.05
(Jun 2013)
121.66
(Jun 2013)
116.80
(Jun 2013)
109.92
(Jun 2013)
104.93
(Jun 2013)
106.03
(Jun 2013)
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative
Growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
60.06%
53.92%
NA
41.16%
50.04%
27.17%
54.51%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are
coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN JULY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy,
tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24
months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 91.7 in July from 94.9 in June. The fall is
attributed to the nationwide employment decrease in manufacturing and construction sectors.

In July, the national and regional economy shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that total industrial production index unchanged at 99.0 in July after showing a slight
increase (+0.1%) in June. Capacity utilization in all industry recorded 77.6% in July, down from 77.8%
in the previous month.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to -0.15
in July from -0.23 in June due to positive contributions of sales and consumption. Midwest
manufacturing output measured by the Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI)
decreased 0.1% in July due to negative contributions of auto and machinery sectors. In the Chicago
region, employment in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing rose 0.38% and 0.21% in July while
employment in construction decreased 0.03%. Retail sales are estimated to have risen 1.42% in July.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its modest recovery trend. The
economic growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was below its
historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose
by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3%. Considering recent
national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected
to continue its modest improving trend over the next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
CBAI (Current: 91.7)
100
98.8
99.5
trend
94.9
91.7
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
94.9
99.5
98.8
Forecast (ahead)
83.4
84.7
-
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/06
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Bloomington-Normal (1st to 9th) experienced the deepest fall in June.

Decatur (6th to 8th) and Kankakee (4th to 10th) dropped in terms of rank from
last month.

The most remarkable upward move in June was recorded for Champaign-UrbanaRantoul (10th to 1st).

Springfield (5th to 4th), Rockford (8th to 5th), Peoria (7th to 6th) and Metro-East
(9th to 7th) also gained in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (9th to 1st).

Downward moves were recorded for Chicago (1st to 2nd), Rockford (2nd to 3rd),
Kankakee (3rd to 6th), Bloomington-Normal (6th to 8th) and Peoria (8th to 9th).

Davenport-Rock Island-Moline, Springfield, Metro-East and Decatur remained in
the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur remained in the last place and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul climbed up to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data
are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
May 2013
Jun 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Bloomington-Normal (1.11%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (3.9%)
1
(+9)
2
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.42%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.49%)
2
 (+0)
3
Chicago (0.34%)
Chicago (0.14%)
3
 (+0)
4
Kankakee (0.31%)
Springfield (-0.04%)
4
 (+1)
5
Springfield (0.09%)
Rockford (-0.06%)
5
(+3)
6
Decatur (0.03%)
Peoria (-0.15%)
6
(+1)
7
Peoria (-0.02%)
Metro-East (-0.16%)
7
(+2)
8
Rockford (-0.18%)
Decatur (-0.55%)
8
 (-2)
9
Metro-East (-0.3%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.61%)
9
 (-8)
10
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-3.04%)
Kankakee (-1.35%)
10
 (-6)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
May 2013
Jun 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Chicago (1.55%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.85%)
1
 (+8)
2
Rockford (1.09%)
Chicago (1.52%)
2
 (-1)
3
Kankakee (0.94%)
Rockford (0.78%)
3
 (-1)
4
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.01%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.14%)
4
 (+0)
5
Springfield (-0.37%)
Springfield (-0.1%)
5
 (+0)
6
Bloomington-Normal (-0.97%)
Kankakee (-0.16%)
6
 (-3)
7
Metro-East (-1.19%)
Metro-East (-0.92%)
7
 (+0)
8
Peoria (-1.66%)
Bloomington-Normal (-1.4%)
8
 (-2)
9
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-1.9%)
Peoria (-1.89%)
9
 (-1)
10
Decatur (-4.52%)
Decatur (-4.31%)
10
 (+0)
*
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15