I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local
economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This
information is compiled by IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
OCTOBER 2013
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 10,300 jobs in September 2013, compared with a revised 3,900 job gain in
August 2013. Compared to September 2012, Illinois has added 57,800 jobs. The threemonth moving average of jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 7,200 jobs
per month.
The Nation added 163,000 jobs at a rate of 0.12%, compared with a revised 238,000 job gain
in August 2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 163,300 jobs per
month.
The RMW shed 23,800 jobs in September at a rate of -0.12% after a revised 17,400 job gain
in August. The three-month moving average was up by 5,900 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job
changes 33 times and positive job gains also 36 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a
net loss of 177,500 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession,
Illinois has added 226,200 new jobs.
By September 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery
forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Professional & business services, Leisure &
hospitality and Other services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 13.1%, 14.6% and
12.0%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.1%, 7.6% and 7.3%.
Through September 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation
compared to January 1990 stood at 10.29%, 12.89%, and 24.93%, respectively.
SEPTEMBER 2013
October
2013
Positive
Total NonFarm
Employment
Nation
RMW*
Illinois
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
Aug 2013 – Sep 2013
Last 12 months
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
Growth Rate
%
Number of
Jobs
0.12
163,000
1.70
2,285,000
-0.12
-23,800
1.14
217,100
0.18
10,300
1.00
57,800
Sep 2013
Shadow
U.R. **
12.5%
14.6%
13.1%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force
participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – S E P 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LAST
12 M O N T H S T N F E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E OC T 2012 – S E P 2013
Oct/12 Nov/12 Dec/12 Jan/13 Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13
0.50%
Nation
RMW
Jul/13 Aug/13 Sep/13
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
TOTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E B Y S E C TO R S AU G
2013 – S E P 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
Nation
S HA D OW
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
RMW
3.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently
unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has
declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does
not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has
estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be
observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to
2004.







In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been
only 66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been
66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow
unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has
increased but recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has
increased significantly since 2008.
To bring the two together a further 276,800 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
The gap at the national level is much smaller.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
Sep 2013
5,810,400
184,300
574,200
1,171,100
99,300
373,300
891,700
881,600
540,100
256,900
827,300
Sep 2014 (p)
5,883,400
181,800
572,500
1,189,300
99,000
379,400
917,900
903,100
551,200
259,700
829,600
Number of Jobs
73,000 ~ 82,600
-2,500
-1,700
18,200
-300
6,100
26,200
21,500
11,100
2,800
2,300
Growth Rate %
1.26% ~ 1.42%
-1.36%
-0.30%
1.55%
-0.30%
1.63%
2.94%
2.44%
2.06%
1.09%
0.28%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Aug 2013*
Aug 2014
(p)*
Bloomington-Normal
90,300
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
Chicago
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
90,100
-200 ~ -80
-0.21%~ -0.09%
-
LEI (2.62%)
INF (-8.28%)
106,500
106,600
150~440
0.14%~0.41%
+
PRO (1.85%)
MAN (-2.70%)
4,163,000
4,215,000
518,00~64,900
1.24%~1.56%
+
PRO (3.15%)
MAN (-2.35%)
184,100
184,200
100~-700
0.05%~ -0.36%
+
EDU (1.84%)
INF (-4.66%)
50,500
50,000
-500~ -20
-0.91%~-0.04%
-
PRO (8.81%)
MAN (-3.90%)
Kankakee
43,400
42,900
-500~-340
-1.08%~ -0.78%
-
OTH (0.68%)
FIN (-3.04%)
Peoria
182,500
183,600
1100~2400
0.62 %~ 1.35%
+
PRO (3.05%)
INF (-0.51%)
Rockford
148,300
147,800
-500~ -280
-0.34%~-0.19%
-
PRO (2.10%)
CON (-14.90%)
Springfield
113,500
112,700
-800~ -250
-0.67%~ -0.22%
-
PRO (2.76%)
INF (-9.80%)
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
165000
3600000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
150000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
2010
2012
2014
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
60000
48000
58000
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
30000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
120000
2014
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- Sep
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
104,800 jobs/year
143,900 jobs/year
In 8 years
65,500 jobs/year
90,000 jobs/year
In 10 years
52,400 jobs/year
72,000 jobs/year
In 15 years
34,900 jobs/year
48,000 jobs/year
* The figure 749,600 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest
point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 276,800, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and
official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 749,600.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through
June 2010.
*** The figure 225,800 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through September 2013.
.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Sep 2013
Job Changes in
Recession
Period*
Job Changes
in Jan 2010Sep 2013
Recovery
Rate
Forecasted
Job Changes
Jan 2010-Sep
2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-19,600
-30.72%
-22,100
-34.64%
Manufacturing
-114,500
19,300
16.86%
17,600
15.37%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
50,200
51.70%
68,400
70.44%
Information
-11,300
-5,100
-45.13%
-5,400
-47.79%
Financial activities
-32,700
8,300
25.38%
14,400
44.04%
Professional & business services
-92,700
110,800
119.53%
137,000
147.79%
Education & health
32,200
60,100
--
81,600
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
28,200
126.46%
39,300
176.23%
Other Services
-6,300
1,300
20.63%
4,100
65.08%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-29,000
--
-26,700
--


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10
Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education &
health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive
job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional
& business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services have
recovered 16.86%, 51.70%, 25.38%, 119.53%, 126.46%, 20.63%,
respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
By September 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure
& hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment
peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction and
Information are still negative, namely, -30.72% and -45.13%
respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Trade,
transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional
& business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.
Construction and Information will continue to lose jobs with
faster rates
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
124.93
(Sep 2013)
113.89
(Sep 2013)
110.29
(Sep 2013)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates
at Sep 2013**
77.33%
60.19%
56.03%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
138.31
(Aug 2013)
107.93
(Aug 2013)
110.79
(Aug 2013)
111.20
(Aug 2013)
93.60
(Aug 2013)
120.97
(Aug 2013)
117.06
(Aug 2013)
110.02
(Aug 2013)
106.78
(Aug 2013)
106.18
(Aug 2013)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
62.14%
51.73%
NA
31.39%
52.50%
27.79%
119.74%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February 2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are
coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN AUGUST
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy,
tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24
months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased slightly to 90.9 in August from 90.1 in
July. The rise is attributed to the nationwide employment increase in manufacturing and
nonmanufacturing sectors and improved activities in retail in the Chicago region.

In August, the national and regional economy shared positive features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that total industrial production index advanced 0.4 percent in August to 99.4 after
having been unchanged in July. Capacity utilization for all industry increased 0.2 percentage point
in August to 77.8 percent.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to
+0.14 in August from -0.43 in July due to positive contributions of production, sales and
employment. Midwest manufacturing output measured by the Chicago Fed Midwest
Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 1.5% in August due to production increases in auto,
machinery and resource sectors. In the Chicago region, employment in manufacturing and
construction fell 0.36% and 1.08% in August while nonmanufacturing employment little changed.
Retail sales are estimated to have risen 0.61% in August.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its modest recovery trend. The
economic growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was
below its historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll
employment rose by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3%.
Considering recent national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago
economy is expected to continue its modest improving trend over the next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
CBAI (Current: 90.9 )
102.0
trend
100
1 month 3 month 1 year
90.1 90.9
88.8
Historical (ago)
90.1
102.0
88.8
Forecast (ahead)
95.9
93.1
-
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/06
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (4th to 10th) experienced the deepest fall in August.

Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (1st to 5th), Chicago (2nd to 7th), Peoria (5th to
8th) and Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (4th to 10th) dropped in terms of rank from
last month.

The most remarkable upward move in August was recorded for Rockford (8th to
2nd).

Bloomington-Normal (3rd to 1st), Decatur (7th to 3th), Metro-East (6th to 4th),
Springfield (10th to 6th), also gained in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Kankakee
(2nd to 1st), Metro-East (9th to 7th), Decatur (8th to 5th), Springfield (10th to 7th).

Downward moves were recorded for Rockford (1st to 8th), Peoria (7th to 9th) and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (5th to 10th).

Bloomington-Normal, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline and Chicago remained in
the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul is in the last
place and Kankakee climbed up to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data
are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Jul 2013
Aug 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.64%)
Bloomington-Normal(1.44%)
1
(+2)
2
Chicago (0.27%)
Rockford (1.41%)
2
(+6)
3
Bloomington-Normal (0.23%)
Decatur (0.19%)
3
(+4)
4
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.22%)
Metro-East (0.18%)
4
(+2)
5
Peoria (0%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.14%)
5
(-4)
6
Metro-East (-0.06%)
Springfield (0.09%)
6
(+4)
7
Decatur (-0.06%)
Chicago (-0.02%)
7
(-5)
8
Rockford (-0.15%)
Peoria (-0.02%)
8
(-3)
9
Kankakee(-0.29%)
Kankakee (-0.08%)
9
(+0)
10
Springfield (-0.56%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.26%)
10
(-6)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Jul 2013
Aug 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Rockford (2.4%)
Kankakee (2.21%)
1
(+1)
2
Kankakee (1.74%)
Metro-East (1.6%)
2
(+7)
3
Bloomington-Normal (0.57%)
Bloomington-Normal (1.39%)
3
(+0)
4
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.19%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.2%)
4
(+0)
5
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.1%)
Decatur (-0.61%)
5
(+3)
6
Chicago (-0.51%)
Chicago (-0.8%)
6
(+0)
7
Peoria (-0.54%)
Springfield (-1%)
7
(+3)
8
Decatur (-0.73%)
Rockford (-1.25%)
8
(-7)
9
Metro-East (-2.02%)
Peoria (-1.85%)
9
(-2)
10
Springfield (-3.97%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-3.36%)
10
(-5)
*
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15