I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
DECEMBER 2013
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 9,400 jobs in November 2013, compared with a 17,200 job gain in October 2013.
Compared to November 2012, Illinois has added 58,900 jobs. The three-month moving average,, a
more stable measure of labor market, was up by 12,300 jobs per month.
The Nation added 203,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a 200,000 job gain in October
2013. The three-month moving average was up by 192,700 jobs per month.
The RMW added 27,800 jobs in November at a rate of 0.14% after a 36,200 job gain in October. The
three-month moving average was up by 13,400 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 33
times and positive job gains 37 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 150,900 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 252,800 new jobs.
By November 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered
to their previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the
future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities
(TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other
services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.9%, 13.5% and 12.1%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 8.7%, 7.1% and 7.0%.
Through November 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.79%, 13.26%, and 25.31%, respectively.
NOVEMBER 2013
Total NonFarm
Employment
DEC
Positive
Nation
RMW*
Illinois
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
Oct 2013– Nov 2013
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Nov 2013
Shadow
U.R. **
0.15
203,000
1.71
2,293,000
12.10%
0.14
27,800
1.27
243,400
13.50%
0.16
9,400
1.02
58,900
12.90%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004. What are these numbers? – they are the annual growth in number of jobs. The column
to the left is the annual growth rate assume. Please correct.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – N OV 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E D E C 2 0 1 2 –
NOV 2 0 1 3
Dec/12
Jan/13
Feb/13
Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13
Jun/13
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50% -1.00% -0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
Nation
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
RMW
S HA D OW
4.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has increased but
recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has increased significantly since
2008.
To bring the two together a further 259,000 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
November
2013
5,837,000
188,400
576,200
1,179,600
99,900
370,600
897,300
882,500
545,200
258,900
827,700
November
2014 (p)
5,893,000
178,900
585,600
1,202,600
100,700
369,300
923,400
896,700
554,000
262,900
818,900
Number of Jobs
56,000 ~ 78,300
-9,500
9,400
23,000
800
-1,300
26,100
14,200
8,800
4,000
-8,800
Growth Rate
%
0.96%~1.45%
-5.04%
1.63%
1.95%
0.80%
-0.35%
2.91%
1.61%
1.61%
1.54%
-1.06%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (2.54%)
INF (-12.19%)
0.13%~0.23%
+
LEI (1.79%)
MAN (-2.45%)
390,00~52,800
0.94%~1.27%
+
PRO(2.50%)
FIN (-1.93%)
186,100
700~-1,000
0.35%~ 0.52%
+
EDU (2.23%)
INF (-4.28%)
50,100
50,000
-100~300
-0.16%~0.57%
+
PRO (5.26%)
GOV (-3.29%)
Kankakee
43,700
43,500
-200~-50
-0.44%~ -0.11%
-
OTH (1.44%)
FIN (-1.85%)
Peoria
182,200
183,500
1,300~1,400
0.71 %~ 0.76%
+
PRO (5.47%)
TTU (-0.41%)
Rockford
148,700
149,200
500~1,000
0.32%~0.64%
+
PRO (2.16%)
CON (-15.08%)
Springfield
112,100
112,200
100~ 800
0.11%~ 0.70%
+
PRO (3.52%)
INF (-10.02%)
Oct 2013*
Oct
2014
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
89,800
89,300
-500 ~ -340
-0.56%~ -0.38%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
106,100
106,200
100~240
Chicago
4,170,000
4,209,000
185,400
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
150000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
2012
2014
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
60000
46000
58000
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
30000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2012
2014
Year
118000
1990
2010
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- Nov
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
90,800 jobs/year
135,400 jobs/year
In 8 years
56,800 jobs/year
84,600 jobs/year
In 10 years
45,400 jobs/year
67,700 jobs/year
In 15 years
30,300 jobs/year
45,100 jobs/year
* The figure 706,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point Dec-2009 is
472,800. Adding 259,000, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 706,900.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 252,800 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through November 2013.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – November 2013
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Nov
2013
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Nov 2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-15,500
-24.29%
-13,400
-21.00%
Manufacturing
-114,500
21,300
18.60%
30,300
26.46%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
58,700
60.45%
88,400
91.04%
Information
-11,300
-4,500
-39.82%
-2,800
-24.78%
Financial activities
-32,700
5,600
17.13%
10,500
32.11%
Professional & business services
-92,700
116,400
125.57%
144,800
156.20%
Education & health
32,200
61,000
--
87,300
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
33,300
149.33%
48,000
215.25%
Other Services
-6,300
3,300
52.38%
8,200
130.16%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-28,600
--
-21,900
--


Recovery by
Sector



During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other
services have recovered 18.60%, 60.45%, 17.13%, 125.57%, 149.33%
and 52.38% respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
By November 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak
levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction and
Information are still negative, namely, -24.29% and -39.82% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional &
business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
125.31
(Nov 2013)
113.26
(Nov 2013)
110.79
(Nov 2013)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
November 2013**
82.89%
64.70%
62.62%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
137.47
(Oct 2013)
107.53
(Oct 2013)
110.97
(Oct 2013)
111.99
(Oct 2013)
92.86
(Oct 2013)
122.03
(Oct 2013)
116.86
(Oct 2013)
110.29
(Oct 2013)
105.46
(Oct 2013)
105.77
(Oct 2013)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
64.37%
61.83%
NA
46.95%
50.68%
29.64%
73.41%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN OCTOBER
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 94.7 in October from 98.6 in September. The fall
is attributed to slower national economic activities and the decline in the Chicago area’s retail activities.

In October, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that industrial production index edged down 0.1 percent in October to 100.1 after having
increased 0.7 percent in September. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector declined 0.2 percentage
point in October to 78.1 percent.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to -0.18 in
October from +0.13 in September, led by declines in employment and production. In the Chicago region,
the employment in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing rose 0.04 percent and 0.26 percent in October
respectively. Construction employment increased 0.66 percent in October while retail sales are estimated to
have fallen 0.57%.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its modest recovery trend. The economic
growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was near its historical trend.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000 in
November, and the unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent. Considering recent
national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to
continue its modest improving trend over the next several months.
140
CBAI (Current: 94.7)
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
98.6
91.4
81.4
Forecast (ahead)
93.6
105.6
-
120
4 month
forecast
above
trend
100
trend
94.7
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
01/14
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Peoria (3rd to 9th) and Metro East (4th to 10th) experienced the deepest fall in October.

Kankakee (1st to 3rd), Rockford (2nd to 7th), Bloomington-Normal (7th to 8th) also
dropped in terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in October was recorded for Decatur (10th to 2nd).

Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (6th to 1st), Chicago (5th to 4th) Springfield (9th to 5th) and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (8th to 6th) also gained in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Kankakee (6th to
5th), Chicago (2th to 1st) and Rockford (8th to 6th).

Downward moves were recorded for Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1st to 2nd) and
Bloomington-Normal (5th to 8th).

Davenport-Rock Island-Moline, Springfield, Metro-East, Peoria and Decatur remained in
the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur is in the last place and Chicago climbed up to
the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Sep 2013
Oct 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Kankakee(0.46%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.92%)
1
(+5)
2
Rockford (0.21%)
Decatur(0.69%)
2
(+8)
3
Peoria (0.06%)
Kankakee (0.42%)
3
(-2)
4
Metro-East (-0.05%)
Chicago (0.22%)
4
(+1)
5
Chicago (-0.06%)
Springfield (0.2%)
5
(+4)
6
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.2%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.13%)
6
(+2)
7
Bloomington-Normal (-0.47%)
Rockford (0.04%)
7
(-5)
8
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.5%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.14%)
8
(-1)
9
Springfield (-1.43%)
Peoria (-0.22%)
9
(-6)
10
Decatur (-1.47%)
Metro-East (-0.34%)
10
(-6)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Sep 2013
Oct 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.17%)
Chicago (1.37%)
1
(+1)
2
Chicago (1.15%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.99%)
2
(-1)
3
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.13%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.77%)
3
(+0)
4
Springfield (-0.19%)
Springfield (0.11%)
4
(+0)
5
Bloomington-Normal (-0.51%)
Kankakee (-0.28%)
5
(+1)
6
Kankakee (-0.67%)
Rockford (-0.92%)
6
(+2)
7
Metro-East (-0.77%)
Metro-East (-1.15%)
7
(+0)
8
Rockford (-0.81%)
Bloomington-Normal (-1.36%)
8
(-3)
9
Peoria (-1.74%)
Peoria (-2.16%)
9
(+0)
10
Decatur (-4.83%)
Decatur (-4.73%)
10
(+0)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15