Illinois Job Index
Release
03/30/2014
Data
Jan 1990 / Feb 2014
Issue
2014.3
www.real.illinois.edu
Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014.
For February Illinois Job Index, IL and RMW and the nation all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Jan 2014– Feb 2014

Mar
2014
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Feb 2014
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
0.13
175,000
1.59
2,158,000
11.76%
RMW
0.02
4,300
1.03
198,900
12.56%
Illinois
0.11
6,400
0.46
26,500
12.25%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois
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Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois added 6,400 jobs in February 2014, compared with an 18,000 job loss in January 2014.
Compared to February 2013, Illinois has added 26,500 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more
stable measure of labor market, showed a decrease of 3,000 jobs per month.
The Nation added 175,000 jobs at a rate of 0.13%, compared with a 129,000 job gain in January 2014.
The three-month moving average was up by 129,300 jobs per month.
The RMW added 4,300 jobs in February after a 6,800 job loss in January 2014. The three-month moving
average was up by 4,600 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 35 times
and positive job gains 38 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 171,700 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 231,300 new jobs.
By February 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to
their previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also show that the
future recovery rates will increase for these two sectors.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.25%, 12.56% and 11.76%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 8.7%, 6.5% and 6.7%.
Through February 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.40%, 14.10%, and 26.12%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 175,000 jobs. Sectors such as Construction, Leisure &
hospitality and Professional &business services had major job growth.
Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 651,000 jobs. However, for RMW
and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 0.07%, 0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14% and 0.11% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Feb 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
February 2014
Number of Jobs
137,699,000
19,501,100
5,816,200
Current
Index to Jan 1990
126.12
114.10
110.40
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
28,516,000
2,410,000
547,900
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
-651,000
-902,300
-240,700
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Mar 2013 – Feb 2014
Mar/13
Apr/13
May/13
Jun/13
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- Feb
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
89,900 jobs/year
130,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
56,200 jobs/year
81,300 jobs/year
In 10 years
45,000 jobs/year
65,000 jobs/year
In 15 years
30,000 jobs/year
43,400 jobs/year
* The figure 680,800 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 466,100. Adding 214,700, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 680,800.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 231,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through February 2014.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation


Sector
notes
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Illinois Jobs Index
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in February 2014 by adding 6,400 jobs. Six out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to January 2014, Leisure & hospitality (-0.62% to 0.73%) had a
major performance gain while Construction (1.52% to 0.10%) had a major performance loss.
Government (-0.18% to 0.07%), Education & Health Services (-0.35% to 0.05%), Professional
& business services (0.51% to 1.16%), Financial Services (-0.35% to 0.03%), Information (1.41% to -0.72%), Trade, transportation & utilities (-1.04% to -0.52%) and Manufacturing (0.60% to -0.19%) also experienced net performance gain, while Other Services (0.20% to 0.51%) experienced net losses in performance.
In February at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Professional & business services: 79,000 (0.42%)
o Construction: 15,000 (0.25%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 25,000 (0.17%)
Losses at the national level in February was recorded by:
o Information: -16,000 (-0.60%)
For Illinois, the other major job-gain sectors in February were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 4,000 (0.73 %)
o Construction: 200 (0.10%)
o Government: 600 (0.07%)
Following are the major top three sectors that lost jobs in February for Illinois:
o Information: -700 (-0.72%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: -6,100 (-0.52%)
o Other Services:-1,300 (-0.51%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 348,300 jobs, Construction is down -35,900 jobs, Information
down -33,400 jobs and Financial activities has -4,200 fewer jobs.
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Feb 2014
Illinois
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
4.10
%
9.57
vs.
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-35,900
Rate %
-15.58
Manufacturing
-
-
-348,300
-37.76
-25.98
-32.20
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
8,400
0.73
4.32
15.18
Information
-
-
-33,400
-25.63
-17.99
-0.75
Financial activities
-
-
-4,200
-1.13
14.56
20.07
Professional & business services
-
-
332,700
58.16
68.84
75.94
Education & health
-
-
349,700
66.09
68.29
97.49
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
165,100
43.01
32.39
55.89
Other Services
+
-
47,200
22.96
21.74
30.04
Government
-
-
75,700
10.02
10.61
20.38
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – February 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Feb
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Feb 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-9,400
-14.73%
-6,300
-9.87%
Manufacturing
-114,500
19,200
16.75%
11,900
10.38%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
36,100
36.95%
11,200
11.46%
Information
-11,300
-7,500
-66.37%
-10,800
-95.58%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
3,700
123,300
56,900
11.21%
133.73%
-
3,600
159,400
69,500
10.91%
172.89%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
37,100
166.37%
41,700
187.00%
Other services
-6,300
-3,200
-54.24%
-3,800
-64.41%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-25,700
-
-26,400
-


Recovery
by Sector
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Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have recovered 16.75%, 36.95%, 11.21%, 133.73% and 166.37% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By February 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information and Other Services are
still negative, namely, -14.73%, -66.37% and -54.24% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for sectors such as Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
Information & Other Services are predicted to continue to lose jobs.
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Manufacturing
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.10
200
RMW
0.35
2,500
Nation
0.25
15,000
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.19
-1,100
RMW
0.27
7,100
Nation
0.05
6,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.52
-6,100
RMW
0.14
5,000
Nation
0.03
7,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.72
-700
RMW
-0.58
-1,700
Nation
-0.60
-16,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Financial activities
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.03
100
RMW
-0.25
-2,600
Nation
0.11
9,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Professional & business services
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
1.16
10,400
RMW
-0.39
-9,400
Nation
0.42
79,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.05
400
RMW
0.19
5,700
Nation
0.16
33,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leisure & hospitality
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.73
4,000
RMW
0.06
1,100
Nation
0.17
25,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other Services
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.51
-1,300
RMW
0.56
4,600
Nation
0.05
3,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
Jan 2014 – Feb 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.07
600
RMW
-0.27
-7,800
Nation
0.06
13,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9