Illinois Job Index
Release
06/30/2014
Data
Jan 1990 / May 2014
Issue
2014.6
www.real.illinois.edu
Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014.
For June Illinois Job Index, Illinois, RMW and the nation all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Apr 2014– May 2014

June
2014
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
May 2014
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
0.17
229,000
1.77
2,413,000
11.62%
RMW
0.15
29,600
1.21
233,600
12.18%
Illinois
0.01
600
0.39
22,400
11.47%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois

Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois gained 600 jobs in May 2014, compared with an 8,600 job loss in April 2014. Compared to May
2013, Illinois has added 22,400 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor
market, showed a decrease of 3,900 jobs per month.
The Nation added 229,000 jobs at a rate of 0.17%, compared with a 304,000 job gain in April 2014. The
three-month moving average was up by 245,300 jobs per month.
The RMW added 29,600 jobs in May after a 25,600 job gain in April 2014. The three-month moving
average was up by 23,200 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37 times
and positive job gains 39 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 180,700 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 222,300 new jobs.
By May 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their
previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also show that the future
recovery rates will increase for Leisure & hospitality.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.47%, 12.18% and 11.62%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 7.5%, 6.1% and 6.3%.
Through May 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 10.23%, 14.48%, and 26.85%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 229,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business
services, Education & health and Leisure & hospitality had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 147,000 jobs since the last employment
peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their
respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 0.07%, 0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14% and 0.16% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – May 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
May 2014
Number of Jobs
138,497,000
19,565,300
5,807,200
Current
Index to Jan 1990
126.85
114.48
110.23
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
29,314,000
2,474,200
538,900
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
147,000
-838,100
-249,700
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Jun 2013 – May 2014
Jun/13
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14
May/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- May
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
81,100 jobs/year
119,500 jobs/year
In 8 years
50,700 jobs/year
74,700 jobs/year
In 10 years
40,600 jobs/year
59,800 jobs/year
In 15 years
27,000 jobs/year
39,800 jobs/year
* The figure 628,000 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 466,100. Adding 161,900, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 628,000.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 222,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through May 2014.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, Apr 2014 – May 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
Nation


Sector
notes

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

Illinois Jobs Index
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in May 2014 by adding 600 jobs. Four out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to April 2014, Information (-1.12% to -0.21%) had a major
performance gain while Other Services (0.64% to -1.03%) had a major performance loss.
Government (0.08% to 0.36%), Leisure & hospitality (-0.24% to 0.04%), Education & health (0.01% to 0.39%), Professional & business Services (-1.15% to -0.61%), Financial activities (0.49% to -0.38%), Manufacturing(-0.71% to -0.11%) and Construction (0.26% to 1.04%) also
experienced net performance gain, while Trade, transportation & utilities(0.64% to 0.19%)
experienced net loss in performance.
In May at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Professional & business services: 57,000 (0.30%)
o Education & health: 59,000 (0.28%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 45,000 (0.31%)
Loss at the national level in May was recorded by:
o Information: -6,000 (-0.23%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in May were:
o Construction: 2,000 (1.04 %)
o Education & health: 3,400 (0.39%)
o Government: 3,000 (0.36%)
Following are the top three sectors that lost jobs in May for Illinois:
o Financial activities: -1,400 (-0.38%)
o Professional & business services: -5,500 (-0.61%)
o Other Services:-2,600 (-1.03%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 352,200 jobs, Construction is down 36,300 jobs, Information
down 33,400 jobs and Financial activities has 7,200 fewer jobs.
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – May 2014
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
5.53
%
10.83
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-36,300
Rate %
-15.76
Manufacturing
-
-
-352,200
-38.19
-25.82
-31.96
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
16,400
1.43
4.58
15.84
Information
-
-
-33,400
-25.63
-17.59
-0.60
Financial activities
-
-
-7,200
-1.93
14.34
20.36
Professional & business services
-
-
317,500
55.51
69.32
77.67
Education & health
-
-
353,900
66.89
68.68
98.75
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
166,600
43.40
33.81
57.19
Other Services
-
-
44,200
21.50
22.14
30.54
Government
-
-
78,400
10.38
10.72
20.56
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – May 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-May
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010May 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-9,800
-15.36%
-7,700
-12.07%
Manufacturing
-114,500
15,300
13.35%
-3,700
-3.23%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
44,100
45.14%
43,500
44.52%
Information
-11,300
-7,500
-66.37%
-9,200
-81.42%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
700
108,100
61,100
2.12%
117.25%
-
-3,200
90,000
73,800
-9.70%
97.61%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
38,600
173.09%
44,800
200.90%
Other services
-6,300
-6,200
-105.08%
-7,000
-118.64%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-23,000
-
-25,000
-


Recovery
by Sector




Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have recovered 13.35%, 45.14%, 2.12%, 117.25% and 173.09% respectively, from
the jobs lost during the recession.
By May 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered
to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information and Other Services are
still negative, namely, -15.36%, -66.37% and -105.08% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for Leisure & hospitality.
Construction, Information and Other Services are predicted to continue to lose jobs.
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Manufacturing
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
1.04
2,000
RMW
-0.68
5,000
Nation
0.15
9,000
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.11
-600
RMW
0.38
10,200
Nation
0.12
15,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.19
2,200
RMW
0.01
400
Nation
0.13
35,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.21
-200
RMW
0.62
1,800
Nation
-0.23
-6,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Financial activities
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.38
-1,400
RMW
-0.15
-1,600
Nation
0.10
8,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Professional & business services
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.61
-5,500
RMW
0.44
10,500
Nation
0.30
57,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.39
3,400
RMW
0.09
2,600
Nation
0.28
59,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leisure & hospitality
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.04
200
RMW
0.41
7,900
Nation
0.31
45,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other Services
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-1.03
-2,600
RMW
0.29
2,400
Nation
0.07
4,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Apr 2014 – May 2014
Apr 2014 – May 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.36
3,000
RMW
0.00
100
Nation
0.00
1,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 6/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9