Illinois Job Index
Release
08/30/2014
Data
Jan 1990 / July 2014
Issue
2014.8
www.real.illinois.edu
Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014.
For July Illinois Job Index, Illinois, RMW and the nation all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Jun 2014– July 2014

August
2014
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
July 2014
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
0.15
209,000
1.88
2,570,000
11.44%
RMW
0.11
21,000
1.37
264,500
12.45%
Illinois
0.18
10,300
0.61
35,600
11.44%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois gained 10,300 jobs in July 2014, compared with a 7,000 job gain in June 2014. Compared to July
2013, Illinois has added 35,600 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor
market, showed an increase of 6,000 jobs per month.
The Nation added 209,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a 298,000 job gain in June 2014. The
three-month moving average was up by 245,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 21,000 jobs in July after a 47,100 job gain in June 2014. The three-month moving
average was up by 32,600 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37 times
and positive job gains 41 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 163,400 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 239,600 new jobs.
By July 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities
(TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.44%, 12.45% and 11.44%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.8%, 6.2% and 6.2%.
Through July 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 10.56%, 14.87%, and 27.31%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 209,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business
services, Manufacturing and Trade, transportation & utilities had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 654,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 0.07%, 0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14% and 0.17% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – July 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
July 2014
Number of Jobs
139,004,000
19,633,400
5,824,500
Current
Index to Jan 1990
127.31
114.87
110.56
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
29,821,000
2,542,300
556,200
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
654,000
-770,000
-232,400
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Aug 2013 – Jul 2014
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14 May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- July
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
77,200 jobs/year
119,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
48,300 jobs/year
74,400 jobs/year
In 10 years
38,600 jobs/year
59,500 jobs/year
In 15 years
25,700 jobs/year
39,700 jobs/year
* The figure 625,700 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 466,100. Adding 159,600, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 625,700.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 239,600 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through July 2014.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, June 2014 – July 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
Nation


Sector
notes

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

Illinois Jobs Index
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
RMW
1.00%
1.20%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in July 2014 by adding 10,300 jobs. Six out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to June 2014, Manufacturing (-0.30% to 0.69%) had a major
performance gain while Information (0.52% to -0.51%) had a major performance loss.
Education & health (0.07% to 0.10%), Professional & business Services (0.37% to 0.66%) and
Trade, transportation & utilities (-0.16% to 0.12%) also experienced net performance gain,
while Government (0.10% to -0.11%), Other Services (0.76% to -0.04%), Leisure &
hospitality (-0.62% to -0.69%), Financial activities (0.88% to 0.41%) and Construction (1.85%
to 0.96%) experienced net loss in performance.
In July at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Professional & business services: 47,000 (0.24%)
o Manufacturing: 28,000 (0.23%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 39,000 (0.15%)
No sector reported loss at the national level in July.
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in July were:
o Professional & business Services: 5,900 (0.66 %)
o Manufacturing: 3,900 (0.69%)
o Construction: 1,900 (0.96%)
Following are the top three sectors that lost jobs in July for Illinois:
o Leisure & hospitality: -3,800 (-0.69%)
o Government: -900 (-0.11%)
o Information:-500 (-0.51%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 350,000 jobs, Construction is down 30,800 jobs, Information
down 33,400 jobs and Financial activities has 2,500 fewer jobs.
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – July 2014
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
6.56
%
11.42
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-30,800
Rate %
-13.37
Manufacturing
-
-
-350,000
-37.95
-25.29
-31.67
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
15,900
1.39
5.08
16.32
Information
-
-
-33,400
-25.63
-16.92
-0.15
Financial activities
-
-
-2,500
-0.67
14.86
20.73
Professional & business services
-
-
326,700
57.12
69.85
78.78
Education & health
-
-
355,400
67.17
69.24
99.32
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
159,400
41.52
34.09
57.66
Other Services
+
-
46,000
22.37
21.50
30.56
Government
-
-
78,300
10.37
10.70
20.78
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – July 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-July
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010July 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-4,300
-6.74%
3,600
5.64%
Manufacturing
-114,500
17,500
15.27%
23,200
20.24%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
43,600
44.63%
45,400
46.47%
Information
-11,300
-7,500
-66.37%
-9,000
-79.65%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
5,400
117,300
62,600
16.36%
127.22%
-
9,100
123,800
78,000
27.58%
134.27%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
31,400
140.81%
38,400
172.20%
Other services
-6,300
-4,400
-74.58%
-4,300
-72.88%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-23,100
-
-21,100
-


Recovery
by Sector




Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have recovered 15.27%, 44.63%, 16.36%, 127.22% and 140.81% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By July 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered
to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information and Other Services are
still negative, namely, -6.74%, -66.37% and -74.58% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional &
business services and Leisure & hospitality.
Information is predicted to continue to lose jobs.
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
June 2014 – July 2014
Manufacturing
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.96
1,900
RMW
0.78
5,700
Nation
0.37
22,000
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.69
3,900
RMW
0.34
9,100
Nation
0.23
28,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.12
1,400
RMW
0.22
8,200
Nation
0.15
39,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.51
-500
RMW
0.17
500
Nation
0.08
2,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Financial activities
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.41
1,500
RMW
0.49
5,100
Nation
0.09
7,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Professional & business services
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.66
5,900
RMW
-0.11
-2,700
Nation
0.24
47,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.10
900
RMW
0.26
7,900
Nation
0.08
17,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leisure & hospitality
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.69
-3,800
RMW
-0.11
-2,200
Nation
0.14
21,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other Services
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.04
-100
RMW
0.11
900
Nation
0.13
7,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
June 2014 – July 2014
June 2014 – July 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.11
-900
RMW
-0.40
-11,800
Nation
0.05
11,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9