Illinois Job Index
Release
09/30/2014
Data
Jan 1990 / Aug 2014
Issue
2014.9
www.real.illinois.edu
Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014.
For August Illinois Job Index, Illinois and the nation had positive job growth while RMW declined.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
July 2014–Aug 2014

Sep
2014
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Aug 2014
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
0.10
142,000
1.82
2,482,000
11.50%
RMW
-0.03
-5,400
1.13
219,400
12.42%
Illinois
0.24
13,800
0.70
40,600
11.57%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes 
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Nation 
Notes

Illinois gained 13,800 jobs in August 2014, compared with a 9,400 job gain in July 2014. Compared to
August 2013, Illinois has added 40,600 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of
labor market, showed an increase of 10,100 jobs per month.
The Nation added 142,000 jobs at a rate of 0.10%, compared with a 212,000 job gain in July 2014. The
three-month moving average was up by 207,000 jobs per month.
The RMW shed 5,400 jobs in August after a 24,700 job gain in July 2014. The three-month moving
average was up by 22,100 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37 times
and positive job gains 42 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 150,500 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 252,500 new jobs.
By August 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation
& utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and
Other Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.57%, 12.42% and 11.50%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.7%, 6.1% and 6.1%.
Through August 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 10.80%, 14.87%, and 27.42%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 142,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business
services, Educational & Health Services and Construction had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 768,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 0.07%, 0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14% and 0.16% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – August 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
August 2014
Number of Jobs
139,118,000
19,631,700
5,837,400
Current
Index to Jan 1990
127.42
114.87
110.80
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
29,935,000
2,540,600
569,100
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
768,000
-771,700
-219,500
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Sep 2013 – Aug 2014
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14
May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
Aug/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- August
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
76,500 jobs/year
121,000 jobs/year
In 8 years
47,800 jobs/year
75,600 jobs/year
In 10 years
38,300 jobs/year
60,500 jobs/year
In 15 years
25,600 jobs/year
40,300 jobs/year
* The figure 635,000 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 466,100. Adding 168,900, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 635,000.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 252,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through August 2014.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, July 2014 – August 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation


Sector
notes




Illinois Jobs Index
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in August 2014 by adding 13,800 jobs. Six out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to July 2014, Leisure & hospitality (-0.35% to 0.92%) had a
major performance gain while Other Services (-0.24% to -0.72%) had a major performance
loss.
Government (-0.11% to 0.10%), Information (-0.21% to -0.10%) and Trade,
transportation & utilities (0.13% to 0.37%) also experienced net performance gain, while
Education & health (0.09% to -0.19%), Professional & business services (0.56% to 0.37%),
Manufacturing (0.49% to 0.37%), Financial activities (0.14% to -0.08%) and Construction
(1.16% to 1.15%) experienced net loss in performance.
In August at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Professional & business services: 47,000 (0.24%)
o Construction: 20,000 (0.33%)
o Education & health: 37,000 (0.17%)
The sector that lost jobs in August at the national level was
o . Information: -3,000 (-0.11%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in August were:
o Professional & business Services: 3,300 (0.37%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 4,300 (0.37%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 5,000 (0.92%)
Following are the three sectors that lost jobs in August for Illinois:
o Education & health: -1,700 (-0.19%)
o Other Services: -1,800 (-0.72%)
o Information:-100 (-0.10%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 349,000 jobs, Construction is down 28,100 jobs, Information
down 33,200 jobs and Financial activities has 3,800 fewer jobs.
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – August 2014
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
5.89
%
11.91
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-28,100
Rate %
-12.20
Manufacturing
-
-
-349,000
-37.84
-25.41
-31.68
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
20,300
1.77
4.88
16.33
Information
-
-
-33,200
-25.48
-16.98
-0.11
Financial activities
-
-
-3,800
-1.02
14.54
20.91
Professional & business services
-
-
329,100
57.53
69.84
79.09
Education & health
-
-
353,600
66.83
68.77
99.84
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
166,300
43.32
33.92
57.71
Other Services
-
-
43,700
21.25
21.84
30.66
Government
-
-
79,100
10.47
11.69
20.64
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – August 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Aug
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Aug 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-1,600
-2.51%
9,900
15.52%
Manufacturing
-114,500
18,400
16.07%
19,800
17.29%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
47,400
48.82%
60,900
62.72%
Information
-11,300
-7,300
-64.60%
-7,800
-69.03%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
3,800
120,200
61,200
11.62%
129.67%
-
7,500
137,600
82,000
22.94%
148.44%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
38,300
171.75%
47,100
211.21%
Other services
-6,300
-6,700
-113.56%
-5,400
-91.53%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-21,900
-
-15,100
-


Recovery
by Sector




Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have recovered 16.07%, 48.82%, 11.62%, 129.67% and 171.75% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By August 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information and Other Services are
still negative, namely, -2.51%, -64.60% and -113.56% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities,
Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
Information is predicted to continue to lose jobs.
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
July 2014 – Aug 2014
Manufacturing
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
1.15
2,300
RMW
-0.54
-4,000
Nation
0.33
20,000
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.37
2,100
RMW
-0.04
-1,200
Nation
0
0
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.37
4,300
RMW
-0.23
-8,500
Nation
0.00
1,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.10
-100
RMW
-0.61
-1,800
Nation
-0.19
-5,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Financial activities
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.08
-300
RMW
-0.18
-1,900
Nation
0.09
7,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Professional & business services
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.24
3,300
RMW
0.13
3,100
Nation
0.37
47,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.19
-1,700
RMW
-0.30
-9,300
Nation
0.17
37,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leisure & hospitality
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.10
5,000
RMW
-0.28
-5,400
Nation
0.92
15,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other Services
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.72
-1,800
RMW
0.16
1,300
Nation
0.15
8,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
July 2014 – Aug 2014
July 2014 – Aug 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.10
800
RMW
0.76
22,800
Nation
0.04
8,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 9/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9