Illinois Job Index
Release
10/30/2014
Data
Jan 1990 / Sep 2014
Issue
2014.10
www.real.illinois.edu
Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014.
For September Illinois Job Index, Illinois, RMW and the nation all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Aug 2014–Sep 2014

Oct
2014
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Sep 2014
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
0.18
248,000
1.93
2,635,000
11.44%
RMW
0.07
14,700
1.25
242,600
12.21%
Illinois
0.33
19,300
1.19
69,000
11.45%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois gained 19,300 jobs in September 2014, compared with a 20,700 job gain in August 2014.
Compared to September 2013, Illinois has added 69,000 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more
stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 16,500 jobs per month.
The Nation added 248,000 jobs at a rate of 0.18%, compared with an 180,000 job gain in August 2014.
The three-month moving average was up by 223,700 jobs per month.
The RMW added 14,700 jobs in September after a 1,900 job gain in August 2014. The three-month
moving average was up by 13,800 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37 times
and positive job gains 43 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 124,300 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 279,400 new jobs.
By September 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Trade, transportation & utilities
(TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.45%, 12.21% and 11.44%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.6%, 6.0% and 6.0%.
Through September 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 11.30%, 15.00%, and 27.75%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 248,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business
services, Trade, transportation & utilities and Leisure & hospitality had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 1,393,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 0.07%, 0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14% and 0.16% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – September 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
September 2014
Number of Jobs
139,435,000
19,653,700
5,863,600
Current
Index to Jan 1990
127.75
115.00
111.30
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
30,290,000
2,563,100
595,300
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
1,393,000
-745,300
-193,400
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Oct 2013 – Sep 2014
Oct/13
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14
May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
Aug/14
Sep/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- September
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
69,600 jobs/year
119,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
43,500 jobs/year
74,600 jobs/year
In 10 years
34,800 jobs/year
59,700 jobs/year
In 15 years
23,200 jobs/year
39,800 jobs/year
* The figure 626,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 466,100. Adding 160,800, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 626,900.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 278,700 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through September 2014.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, August 2014 – September 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation


Sector
notes




Illinois Jobs Index
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
RMW
2.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in September 2014 by adding 19,300 jobs. Eight out of ten
sectors recorded net gains. Compared to August 2014, Other Services (-0.24% to 2.20%) had a
major performance gain, while Manufacturing (0.63% to -0.49%) had a major performance
loss. Leisure & hospitality (0.79% to -0.20%), Professional & business services (0.75% to
0.66%) and Construction (1.10% to 0.69%) also experienced net performance loss, while
Education & health (-0.10% to 0.08%), Government (0.07% to 0.11%), Information (0.10% to
0.62%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.43% to 0.56%) and Financial activities (-0.05% to
0.41%) experienced net gains in performance.
In September at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Professional & business services: 81,000 (0.42%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 37,000 (0.14%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 33,000 (0.23%)
No sector lost jobs in September at the national level, and the only sector that had unchanged
employment was Other Services.
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in September were:
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 6,500 (0.56%)
o Professional & business services: 6,000 (0.66%)
o Other Services: 5,500 (2.20%)
Following are the two sectors that lost jobs in September for Illinois:
o Leisure & hospitality: -1,100 (-0.20%)
o Manufacturing: -2,800 (-0.49%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 350,000 jobs, Construction is down 26,800 jobs, Information
down 32,400 jobs and Financial activities has 2,200 fewer jobs.
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – September 2014
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
7.02
%
12.12
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-26,800
Rate %
-11.63
Manufacturing
-
-
-350,300
-37.98
-25.15
-31.70
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
27,500
2.40
4.97
16.54
Information
-
-
-32,400
-24.87
-17.09
0.82
Financial activities
-
-
-2,200
-0.59
14.48
21.24
Professional & business services
-
-
338,500
59.18
69.85
80.12
Education & health
-
-
355,100
67.11
69.42
100.22
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
164,500
42.85
33.15
58.09
Other Services
+
-
50,400
24.51
22.34
30.73
Government
-
-
79,800
10.57
11.64
20.72
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – September 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Sep
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Sep 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-300
-0.47%
100
0.16%
Manufacturing
-114,500
17,100
14.93%
14,600
12.75%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
54,600
56.23%
68,400
70.44%
Information
-11,300
-6,500
-57.52%
-7,600
-67.26%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
5,400
129,600
62,700
16.51%
139.81%
-
5,800
158,800
77,700
17.74%
171.31%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
36,500
163.68%
45,400
203.59%
Other services
-6,300
0
0.00%
3,900
66.10%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-21,200
-
-19,500
-


Recovery
by Sector




Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have recovered 14.93%, 56.23%, 16.51%, 139.81% and 163.68% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By September 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction and Information are still negative,
namely, -0.47% and -57.52% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for Construction, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional &
business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
Manufacturing and Information are predicted to lose jobs.
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Manufacturing
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.69
1,400
RMW
0.94
6,900
Nation
0.26
16,000
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.49
-2,800
RMW
0.46
12,300
Nation
0.03
4,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.56
6,500
RMW
0.04
1,600
Nation
0.14
37,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.62
600
RMW
0.00
0
Nation
0.45
12,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Financial activities
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.41
1,500
RMW
-0.03
-300
Nation
0.15
12,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Professional & business services
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.66
6,000
RMW
0.05
1,100
Nation
0.42
81,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.08
700
RMW
0.23
7,000
Nation
0.15
32,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leisure & hospitality
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.20
-1,100
RMW
-0.47
-9,000
Nation
0.23
33,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other Services
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
2.20
5,500
RMW
0.35
2,900
Nation
0
0
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
Aug 2014 – Sep 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.11
900
RMW
-0.26
-7,700
Nation
0.05
12,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 10/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9