Illinois Job Index
Release
11/30/2014
Data
Jan 1990 / Oct 2014
Issue
2014.11
www.real.illinois.edu
Note: Bureau of Labor Statistics revised their current and previous estimates for employment at the beginning of 2014.
For October Illinois Job Index, RMW and the nation had positive job growth while Illinois declined.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Sep 2014–Oct 2014

Nov
2014
Negative
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Oct 2014
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
0.17
243,000
1.96
2,687,000
11.10%
RMW
0.16
32,000
1.13
219,700
11.85%
Illinois
-0.04
-2,200
0.67
39,200
11.06%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes 
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Nation 
Notes

Illinois lost 2,200 jobs in October 2014, compared with a 14,000 job gain in September 2014. Compared
to October 2013, Illinois has added 39,200 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable
measure of labor market, showed an increase of 10,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 243,000 jobs at a rate of 0.17%, compared with a 271,000 job gain in September 2014.
The three-month moving average was up by 239,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 32,000 jobs in October after an 18,100 job gain in September 2014. The three-month
moving average was up by 17,300 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 38 times
and positive job gains 43 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 131,800 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 271,900 new jobs.
By October 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation
& utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and
Other Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.06%, 11.85% and 11.10%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.6%, 5.8% and 5.8%.
Through October 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 11.16%, 15.20%, and 28.02%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 243,000 jobs. Sectors such as Professional & business
services, Trade, transportation & utilities and Leisure & hospitality had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 1,682,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 0.07%, 0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14% and 0.17% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – October 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
October 2014
Number of Jobs
139,724,000
19,689,100
5,856,100
Current
Index to Jan 1990
128.02
115.20
111.16
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
30,579,000
2,598,500
587,800
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
1,682,000
-709,900
-200,900
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Nov 2013 – Oct 2014
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14
May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
Aug/14
Sep/14
Oct/14
0.40%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- October
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
65,800 jobs/year
113,900 jobs/year
In 8 years
41,100 jobs/year
71,200 jobs/year
In 10 years
32,900 jobs/year
57,000 jobs/year
In 15 years
21,900 jobs/year
38,000 jobs/year
* The figure 600,100 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 466,100. Adding 134,000, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 600,100.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 271,200 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through October 2014.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, September 2014 – October 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.40%
-1.20%
-1.00%
-0.80%
-0.60%
Nation


Sector
notes




Illinois Jobs Index
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
RMW
0.40%
0.60%
IL
Illinois posted negative change in October 2014 by shedding 2,200 jobs. Three out of ten
sectors recorded net gains. Compared to September 2014, Leisure & hospitality (-0.36% to
0.24%) had a major performance gain, while Other Services (1.96% to -0.16%) had a major
performance loss. Government (0.05% to -0.36%), Professional & business services (-0.60% to
-0.02%), Financial Activities (0.24% to -0.41%), Information (0.31% to -1.23%), Trade,
transportation & utilities(0.23% to -0.06%) and Construction (0.89% to -0.34%) also
experienced net performance loss, while Education & health (0.22% to 0.40%) and
Manufacturing (-0.38% to 0.14%) experienced net gains in performance.
In October at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Professional & business services: 52,000 (0.27%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 56,000 (0.21%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 55,000 (0.37%)
Loss at the national level in October was recorded by
o Information: -5,000 (-0.19%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in October were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 1,300 (0.24%)
o Education & health: 3,500 (0.40%)
o Manufacturing: 800 (0.14%)
Following are the top three sectors that lost jobs in October for Illinois:
o Government: -3,000 (-0.36%)
o Financial Activities: -1,500 (-0.41%)
o Information: -1,200 (-1.23%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 348,900 jobs, Construction is down 27,100 jobs, Information
down 33,900 jobs and Financial activities has 4,300 fewer jobs.
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – October 2014
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
6.21
%
12.30
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-27,100
Rate %
-11.76
Manufacturing
-
-
-348,900
-37.83
-24.95
-31.51
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
23,000
2.00
5.34
16.87
Information
-
-
-33,900
-26.02
-18.04
0.64
Financial activities
-
-
-4,300
-1.15
14.94
21.36
Professional & business services
-
-
337,500
59.00
70.64
80.33
Education & health
-
-
359,800
68.00
70.06
100.67
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
164,900
42.95
33.90
58.90
Other Services
+
-
49,400
24.03
22.03
30.92
Government
-
-
76,300
10.10
11.19
20.80
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – October 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Oct
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Oct 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-600
-0.94%
300
0.47%
Manufacturing
-114,500
18,500
16.16%
19,300
16.86%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
50,100
51.60%
56,400
58.08%
Information
-11,300
-8,000
-70.80%
-8,200
-72.57%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,700
-92,700
32,200
3,300
128,600
67,400
10.09%
138.73%
-
5,400
158,300
85,400
16.51%
170.77%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
36,900
165.47%
46,500
208.52%
Other services
-6,300
-1,000
-16.95%
200
3.39%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-24,700
-
-26,000
-


Recovery
by Sector




Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have recovered 16.16%, 51.60%, 10.09%, 138.73% and 165.47% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By October 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information and Other Services are
still negative, namely, -0.94%,-70.80% and -16.95% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities,
Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
Information is predicted to lose jobs.
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Manufacturing
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.34
-700
RMW
-0.66
-4,900
Nation
0.12
7,000
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.14
800
RMW
0.41
11,000
Nation
0.16
20,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.06
-700
RMW
0.42
15,300
Nation
0.21
56,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-1.23
-1,200
RMW
-0.78
-2,300
Nation
-0.19
-5,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Financial activities
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.41
-1,500
RMW
0.39
4,100
Nation
0.08
6,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Professional & business services
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.02
-200
RMW
0.21
5,100
Nation
0.27
52,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.40
3,500
RMW
0.28
8,500
Nation
0.17
37,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leisure & hospitality
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.24
1,300
RMW
0.44
8,500
Nation
0.37
55,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Other Services
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.16
-400
RMW
-0.22
-1,800
Nation
0.13
7,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
Sep 2014 – Oct 2014
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.36
-3,000
RMW
-0.40
-11,800
Nation
0.03
7,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/30/2014
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9