Illinois Job Index
Release
2/29/2015
Data
Jan 1990 / Jan 2015
Issue
2015.2
www.real.illinois.edu
For January 2015 Illinois Job Index, RMW and the nation had positive job growth while Illinois declined.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Dec 2014–Jan 2015

Feb
2015
Negative
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Jan 2015
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
0.17
239,000
2.32
3,189,000
10.93%
RMW
0.37
72,800
1.92
373,100
11.05%
Illinois
-0.12
-7,100
1.11
65,000
10.60%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois

Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois lost 7,100 jobs in January 2015, compared with a 15,500 job gain in December 2014. Compared
to January 2014, Illinois has added 65,000 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable
measure of labor market, showed an increase of 4,300 jobs per month.
The Nation added 239,000 jobs at a rate of 0.17%, compared with a 329,000 job gain in December 2014.
The three-month moving average was up by 330,300 jobs per month.
The RMW added 72,800 jobs in January after a 31,500 job gain in December 2014. The three-month
moving average was up by 49,200 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 39 times
and positive job gains 45 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 88,000 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 315,000 new jobs.
By January 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show
that the future recovery rates will increase for every sector except Information.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.60%, 11.05% and 10.93%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.2%, 5.5% and 5.7%.
Through January 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 11.99%, 16.13%, and 29.03%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 239,000 jobs. Sectors such as Trade, transportation &
utilities, Construction, and Education & health had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 2,481,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2015 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%,
0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14%, 0.19% and 0.17% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – January 2015
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
January 2015
Number of Jobs
140,831,000
19,848,100
5,899,900
Current
Index to Jan 1990
129.03
116.13
111.99
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
31,686,000
2,757,500
631,600
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
2,481,000
-550,900
-157,100
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates Feb 2014 – Jan 2015
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14
May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
Aug/14
Sep/14
Oct/14
Nov/14
Dec/14
Jan/15
0.40%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2015- January
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
51,900 jobs/year
109,400 jobs/year
In 8 years
32,500 jobs/year
68,400 jobs/year
In 10 years
26,000 jobs/year
54,700 jobs/year
In 15 years
17,300 jobs/year
36,500 jobs/year
* The figure 574,600 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 472,100. Adding 102,500, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 574,600.
**The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 315,000 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through January 2015.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, December 2014 – January 2015
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation


Sector
notes
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
Illinois Jobs Index
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted negative change in January 2015 by shedding 7,100 jobs. Three out of ten
sectors recorded net gains. Compared to December 2014, Financial activities (-0.16% to 0.08%) had a major performance gain, while Construction (2.09% to -1.19%) had a major
performance loss. Government (-0.02% to -0.32%), Other Services (0.08% to -0.36%), Leisure
& hospitality (0.61% to 0.59%), Professional & business services (0.31% to -0.60%),
Information (0.10% to 0.00%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.14% to 0.13%) and
Manufacturing (0.29% to -0.36%) also experienced net performance losses, while Education &
health (0.24% to 0.26%) experienced a net gain in performance.
In January at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 44,000 (0.16%)
o Construction: 49,000 (0.78%)
o Education & health: 46,000 (0.21%)
No sector lost jobs at the national level in January.
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in January were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 3,300 (0.59%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 1,600 (0.14%)
o Education & health: 2,300 (0.26%)
The top-three sectors that lost jobs in January for Illinois were:
o Professional & business services: -5,500 (-0.60%)
o Government: -2,700 (-0.32%)
o Construction: -2,500 (-1.19%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 343,400 jobs, Construction is down 23,000 jobs, Information
down 31,800 jobs and Financial activities has 4,400 fewer jobs.
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – January 2015
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-23,000
Rate %
-9.98
%
10.03
%
16.64
Manufacturing
-
-
-343,400
-37.23
-24.21
-30.76
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
30,500
2.66
6.71
17.53
Information
-
-
-31,800
-24.41
-16.27
3.82
Financial activities
-
-
-4,400
-1.18
15.94
22.55
Professional & business services
-
-
346,700
60.61
74.29
80.45
Education & health
-
-
367,300
69.42
70.26
101.93
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
179,100
46.65
35.97
61.32
Other Services
+
-
46,300
22.52
21.62
33.10
Government
+
-
73,200
9.69
9.57
20.68
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – January 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Jan
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Jan 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
3,500
5.49%
15,300
23.98%
Manufacturing
-114,600
24,100
21.03%
27,100
23.65%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
58,200
59.57%
59,700
61.11%
Information
-11,300
-5,900
-52.21%
-6,100
-53.98%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-92,200
32,600
3,500
137,300
74,500
10.61%
148.92%
-
4,300
139,300
95,300
13.03%
151.08%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
51,100
229.15%
62,400
279.82%
Other services
-5,900
-4,100
-69.49%
-2,400
-40.68%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-28,200
-
-21,600
-


Recovery
by Sector

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
Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality have recovered 5.49%, 21.03%, 59.57%, 10.61%, 148.92% and
229.15% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By January 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Information and Other Services are still negative,
namely -52.51% and -69.49% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase
for every sector except Information.
Information is predicted to lose jobs.
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Manufacturing
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-1.19
-2,500
RMW
0.40
3,000
Nation
0.78
49,000
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.36
-2,100
RMW
0.51
13,900
Nation
0.17
21,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.14
1,600
RMW
0.64
23,600
Nation
0.16
44,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.00
0
RMW
1.33
3,900
Nation
0.18
5,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Financial activities
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.08
-300
RMW
0.18
1,900
Nation
0.27
22,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Professional & business services
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.60
-5,500
RMW
0.39
9,700
Nation
0.05
10,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.26
2,300
RMW
0.43
13,200
Nation
0.21
46,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Leisure & hospitality
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.59
3,300
RMW
0.66
12,800
Nation
0.26
39,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other Services
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.36
-900
RMW
0.24
2,000
Nation
0.12
7,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.32
-2,700
RMW
-0.39
-11,300
Nation
0.01
2,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 2/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9