Illinois Job Index
Release
4/29/2015
Data
Jan 1990 / Mar 2015
Issue
2015.4
www.real.illinois.edu
For March 2015 Illinois Job Index, the nation had positive job growth but Illinois and RMW declined.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Feb 2015–Mar 2015

April
2015
Negative
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
Last 12 months
Mar 2015
Number of
Jobs
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
0.09
126,000
2.27
3,128,000
10.98%
RMW
-0.06
-12,500
1.70
332,700
10.97%
Illinois
-0.03
-1,800
1.23
71,600
10.81%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois shed 1,800 jobs in March 2015, compared with a 14,900 job gain in February 2015. Compared to
March 2014, Illinois has added 71,600 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of
labor market, showed an increase of 2,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 126,000 jobs at a rate of 0.09%, compared with a 264,000 job gain in February 2015.
The three-month moving average was up by 195,300 jobs per month.
The RMW shed 12,500 jobs in March after a 37,700 job gain in February 2015. The three-month moving
average was up by 28,500 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 40 times
and positive job gains 46 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 72,600 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 330,400 new jobs.
By March 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show
that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Information
and Financial Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.81%, 10.97% and 10.98%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.0%, 5.2% and 5.5%.
Through March 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 12.28%, 16.21%, and 29.35%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 126,000 jobs. Sectors such as Trade, transportation &
utilities, Professional & business services and Education & health had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 2,833,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2015 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%,
0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14%, 0.19% and 0.14% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – March 2015
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
March 2015
Number of Jobs
141,183,000
19,860,700
5,915,300
Current
Index to Jan 1990
129.35
116.21
112.28
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
32,038,000
2,770,100
647,000
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
2,833,000
-538,300
-141,700
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates Apr 2014 – Mar 2015
Apr/14
May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
Aug/14
Sep/14
Oct/14
Nov/14
Dec/14
Jan/15
Feb/15
Mar/15
0.35%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.10%
-0.15%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2015- March
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
51,600 jobs/year
112,200 jobs/year
In 8 years
32,300 jobs/year
70,100 jobs/year
In 10 years
25,800 jobs/year
56,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
17,200 jobs/year
37,400 jobs/year
* The figure 588,600 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 472,100. Adding 116,500, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 588,600.
**The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 330,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through March 2015.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, February 2015 – March 2015
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation


Sector
notes

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
Illinois Jobs Index
1.00%
1.50%
RMW
2.00%
IL
Illinois posted negative change in March 2015 by shedding 1,800 jobs. Five out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to February 2015, Information (-0.30% to 0.30%) had a major
performance gain, while Leisure & hospitality (0.48% to -0.87%) had a major performance loss.
Government (-0.19% to 0.05%), Education & health (-0.09% to -0.04%), Manufacturing (-0.21%
to -0.10%), and Construction (1.16% to 1.71%) also experienced net performance gains, while
Other Services (0.20% to -0.75%), Professional & business services (0.56% to 0.01%), Financial
Activities (0.35% to -0.65%) and Trade, transportation & utilities (0.58% to 0.35%) experienced
net losses in performances.
In March at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 41,000 (0.15%)
o Professional & business services: 40,000 (0.21%)
o Education & health: 38,000 (0.17%)
Three sectors lost jobs at the national level in March.
o Government: -3,000 (-0.01%)
o Manufacturing: -1,000 (-0.01%)
o Construction: -1,000 (-0.02%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in March were:
o Construction: 3,600 (1.71%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 4,200 (0.35%)
o Government: 400 (0.05%)
The top-three sectors that lost jobs in March for Illinois were:
o Leisure & hospitality: -4,900 (-0.87%)
o Financial Activities: -2,400 (-0.65%)
o Other Services: -1,900 (-0.75%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 344,800 jobs, Construction is down 16,700 jobs, Information
down 31,600 jobs and Financial activities has 6,300 fewer jobs.
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – March 2015
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-16,700
Rate %
-7.25
%
10.30
%
17.00
Manufacturing
-
-
-344,800
-37.38
-24.15
-30.78
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
40,300
3.51
6.88
17.90
Information
-
-
-31,600
-24.25
-16.50
4.19
Financial activities
-
-
-6,300
-1.69
16.23
22.73
Professional & business services
-
-
355,100
62.08
72.41
81.30
Education & health
-
-
367,700
69.50
70.85
102.77
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
175,600
45.74
36.16
62.06
Other Services
-
-
44,700
21.74
21.91
33.26
Government
-
-
72,000
9.53
10.09
20.64
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – March 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Mar
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010Mar 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
9,800
15.36%
20,100
31.50%
Manufacturing
-114,600
22,700
19.81%
22,200
19.37%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
68,000
69.60%
82,900
84.85%
Information
-11,300
-5,700
-50.44%
-5,800
-51.33%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-92,200
32,600
1,600
145,700
74,900
4.85%
158.03%
-
-800
159,200
94,000
-2.42%
172.67%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
47,600
213.45%
58,400
261.88%
Other services
-5,900
-5,700
-96.61%
-5,000
-84.75%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-29,400
-
-26,600
-


Recovery
by Sector



Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality have recovered 15.36%, 19.81%, 69.60%, 4.85%, 158.03% and
213.45% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By March 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Information and Other Services are still negative,
namely -51.33% and -84.75% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will
increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Information and Financial Services.
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Manufacturing
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
1.71
3,600
RMW
-0.73
-5,600
Nation
-0.02
-1,000
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.10
-600
RMW
-0.13
-3,500
Nation
-0.01
-1,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
National
RMW
IL
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.35
4,200
RMW
0.17
6,200
Nation
0.15
41,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.30
300
RMW
0.37
1,100
Nation
0.07
2,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Financial activities
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.65
-2,400
RMW
0.26
2,700
Nation
0.10
8,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Professional & business services
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.01
100
RMW
-0.71
-17,600
Nation
0.21
40,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.04
-400
RMW
0.13
4,000
Nation
0.17
38,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Leisure & hospitality
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.87
-4,900
RMW
-0.11
-2,100
Nation
0.09
13,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other Services
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.75
-1,900
RMW
0.10
800
Nation
0.00
0
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
Feb 2015 – Mar 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.05
400
RMW
0.08
2,300
Nation
-0.01
-3,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9