Illinois Job Index
Release
8/29/2015
Data
Jan 1990 / July 2015
Issue
2015.8
www.real.illinois.edu
For July 2015 Illinois Job Index, the nation, RMW and Illinois all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
June 2015– July 2015

August
2015
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
0.15
RMW
Illinois
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
July 2015
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
215,000
2.09
2,915,000
10.96%
0.29
56,800
1.68
330,300
11.50%
0.03
1,900
0.85
50,100
10.85%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois added 1,900 jobs in July 2015, compared with a 5,600 job loss in June 2015. Compared to July
2014, Illinois has added 50,100 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor
market, showed an increase of 1,200 jobs per month.
The Nation added 215,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a 231,000 job gain in June 2015. The
three-month moving average was up by 235,300 jobs per month.
The RMW gained 56,800 jobs in July after an 11,200 job gain in June 2015. The three-month moving
average was up by 29,100 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 41 times
and positive job gains 49 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 63,900 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 339,100 new jobs.
By July 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show
that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Information
and Other Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.85%, 11.50% and 10.96%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 5.8%, 5.0% and 5.3%.
Through July 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 12.45%, 16.82%, and 30.17%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 215,000 jobs. Sectors such as Trade, transportation &
utilities, Professional & business services and Education & health had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 3,721,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2015 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%,
0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14%, 0.19% and 0.15% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – July 2015
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
July 2015
Number of Jobs
142,071,000
19,964,700
5,924,000
Nation
RMW
Illinois
Current
Index to Jan 1990
130.17
116.82
112.45
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
32,926,000
2,874,100
655,700
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
3,721,000
-434,300
-133,000
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates August 2014 – July 2015
Aug/14
Sep/14
Oct/14
Nov/14
Dec/14
Jan/15
Feb/15
Mar/15
Apr/15
May/15
Jun/15
Jul/15
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.10%
Nation
RMW
IL
-0.15%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2015- July
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
51,800 jobs/year
114,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
32,400 jobs/year
71,300 jobs/year
In 10 years
25,900 jobs/year
57,000 jobs/year
In 15 years
17,300 jobs/year
38,000 jobs/year
* The figure 597,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 472,100. Adding 125,800, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 597,900.
**The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 339,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through July 2015.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, June 2015 – July 2015
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation


Sector
notes
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Illinois Jobs Index
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in July 2015 by adding 1,900 jobs. Six out of ten sectors recorded
net gains. Compared to June 2015, Construction (-1.92% to 0.96%) had a major performance
gain, while Financial Activities (0.91% to 0.33%) had a major performance loss. Government (0.16% to 0.31%), Other Services (-1.07% to 0.04%), Leisure & hospitality (-0.39% to 0.43%)
and Information (-0.20% to -0.10%) also experienced performance gains, while Education &
health (0.07% to -0.07%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.35% to 0.03%), Manufacturing
(0.19% to -0.10%) and Professional & business services (-0.42% to -0.57%) also experienced net
losses in performances.
In July at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 60,000 (0.22%)
o Professional & business services: 40,000 (0.20%)
o Education & health: 37,000 (0.17%)
No sector recorded negative job growth at the national level in July.
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in July were:
o Government: 2,600 (0.31%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 2,400 (0.43%)
o Construction: 2,000 (0.96%)
The top-three sectors that lost jobs in July for Illinois were:
o Professional & business services: -5,300 (-0.57%)
o Education & health: -600 (-0.07%)
o Manufacturing: -600 (-0.10%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 348,700 jobs, Construction is down 19,200 jobs, Information
down 32,100 jobs and Financial activities has 4,200 fewer jobs.
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – July 2015
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
%
9.09
%
17.72
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-19,200
Rate %
-8.33
Manufacturing
-
-
-348,700
-37.81
-23.69
-30.60
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
42,400
3.69
7.00
18.70
Information
-
-
-32,100
-24.64
-17.09
4.61
Financial activities
-
-
-4,200
-1.13
17.28
23.60
Professional & business services
-
-
360,200
62.97
74.82
83.61
Education & health
-
-
369,400
69.82
72.33
104.76
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
178,800
46.57
35.95
63.15
Other Services
+
-
45,000
21.89
21.41
33.93
Government
-
-
73,600
9.74
11.27
20.78
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – July 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-July
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010July 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
7,300
11.44%
14,300
22.41%
Manufacturing
-114,600
18,800
16.40%
15,500
13.53%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
70,100
71.75%
77,800
79.63%
Information
-11,300
-6,200
-54.87%
-7,000
-61.95%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-92,200
32,600
3,700
150,800
76,600
11.21%
163.56%
-
4,900
151,100
92,300
14.85%
163.88%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
50,800
227.80%
58,100
260.54%
Other services
-5,900
-5,400
-91.53%
-5,500
-93.22%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-27,800
-
-29,800
-


Recovery
by Sector



Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality have recovered 11.44%, 16.40%, 71.75%, 11.21%, 163.56% and
227.80% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By July 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered
to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Information and Other Services are still negative,
namely -54.87% and -91.53% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will
increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Information and Other Services.
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
June 2015- July 2015
Manufacturing
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.96
2,000
RMW
-0.86
-6,500
Nation
0.09
6,000
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.10
-600
RMW
-0.04
-1,000
Nation
0.12
15,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
National
RMW
IL
60.00
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.03
300
RMW
-0.06
-2,200
Nation
0.22
60,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.10
-100
RMW
0.03
100
Nation
0.07
2,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Financial activities
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.33
1,200
RMW
0.54
5,700
Nation
0.21
17,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Professional & business services
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.57
-5,300
RMW
0.47
11,600
Nation
0.20
40,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.07
-600
RMW
0.39
12,000
Nation
0.17
37,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Leisure & hospitality
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.43
2,400
RMW
-0.08
-1,600
Nation
0.20
30,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other Services
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.04
100
RMW
-0.01
-100
Nation
0.12
7,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
June 2015- July 2015
June 2015- July 2015
%
Change
130.00
Number of
Jobs
125.00
Illinois
0.31
2,600
RMW
1.36
39,200
Nation
0.02
5,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 8/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9