Illinois Job Index
Release
11/29/2015
Data
Jan 1990 / Oct 2015
Issue
2015.11
www.real.illinois.edu
For October 2015 Illinois Job Index, the nation, RMW and Illinois all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Sep 2015– Oct 2015

Nov
2015
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
0.19
RMW
Illinois
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Oct 2015
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
271,000
2.01
2,814,000
11.03%
0.30
59,400
1.61
317,800
11.10%
0.24
14,100
0.68
40,300
10.22%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois gained 14,100 jobs in October 2015, compared with a 3,000 job loss in September 2015.
Compared to October 2014, Illinois has added 40,300 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more
stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 2,000 jobs per month.
The Nation added 271,000 jobs at a rate of 0.19%, compared with a 137,000 job gain in September 2015.
The three-month moving average was up by 187,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 59,400 jobs in October after a 43,000 job loss in September 2015. The three-month
moving average was up by 17,000 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has positive job gains 50 times and
negative job changes 43 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 60,700 jobs since the beginning
of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 342,300 new jobs.
By October 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show
that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities and Information.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.22%, 11.10% and 11.03%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 5.4%, 4.5% and 5.0%.
Through October 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 12.51%, 17.11%, and 30.70%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 271,000 jobs. Sectors such as Trade, transportation &
utilities, Professional & business services and Education & health had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 4,304,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2015 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%,
0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14%, 0.19% and 0.15% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – October 2015
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
October 2015
Number of Jobs
142,654,000
20,015,200
5,927,200
Current
Index to Jan 1990
130.70
117.11
112.51
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
33,509,000
2,924,600
658,900
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
4,304,000
-383,800
-129,800
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates November 2014 – October 2015
Nov/14
Dec/14
Jan/15
Feb/15
Mar/15
Apr/15
May/15
Jun/15
Jul/15
Aug/15
Sep/15
Oct/15
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Nation
RMW
IL
-0.30%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2015- October
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
41,200 jobs/year
104,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
25,700 jobs/year
65,100 jobs/year
In 10 years
20,600 jobs/year
52,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
13,700 jobs/year
34,700 jobs/year
* The figure 548,100 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 472,100. Adding 76,100, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 548,100.
**The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 342,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through October 2015.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, September 2015 – October 2015
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
Nation


Sector
notes
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Illinois Jobs Index
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
RMW
1.20%
1.40%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in October 2015 by adding 14,100 jobs. Five out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to September 2015, Leisure & hospitality (-0.46% to 0.63%) had a
major performance gain, while Information (0.51% to -0.31%) had a major performance loss.
Education & health (0.10% to 0.88%), Financial Activities (-0.57% to -0.05%), Trade,
transportation & utilities (-0.56% to 0.15%) and Construction (0.10% to 0.81%) also experienced
performance gains, while Government (0.25% to 0.14%), Other Services (0.92% to 0.59%),
Manufacturing (-0.26% to -0.33%) and Professional & business services (0.42% to -0.12%)
experienced net losses in performances.
In October at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 51,000 (0.19%)
o Professional & business services: 78,000 (0.39%)
o Education & health: 57,000 (0.26%)
The only sector that lost jobs at the national level in October was:
o Information: -1,000 (-0.04%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in October were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 3,500 (0.63%)
o Education & health: 7,900 (0.88%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 1,800 (0.15%)
The top-three sectors that lost jobs in October for Illinois were:
o Information: -300 (-0.31%)
o Professional & business services: -1,100 (-0.12%)
o Manufacturing: -1,900 (-0.33%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 355,400 jobs, Construction is down 19,300 jobs, Information
down 32,600 jobs and Financial activities has 4,200 fewer jobs.
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – October 2015
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-19,300
Rate %
-8.38
%
10.31
%
18.66
Manufacturing
-
-
-355,400
-38.53
-23.42
-30.79
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
33,300
2.90
7.31
18.98
Information
-
-
-32,600
-25.02
-17.51
4.87
Financial activities
-
-
-4,200
-1.13
17.79
23.91
Professional & business services
-
-
366,100
64.00
75.01
84.96
Education & health
-
-
377,400
71.33
74.10
106.31
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
179,100
46.65
36.73
64.51
Other Services
+
-
48,600
23.64
22.22
33.97
Government
-
-
75,500
10.00
10.03
21.14
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – October 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Oct
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010October 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
7,200
11.29%
13,700
21.47%
Manufacturing
-114,600
12,100
10.56%
-2,100
-1.83%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
61,000
62.44%
58,900
60.29%
Information
-11,300
-6,700
-59.29%
-7,800
-69.03%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-92,200
32,600
3,700
156,700
84,600
11.21%
169.96%
-
5,800
167,100
103,000
17.58%
181.24%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
51,100
229.15%
61,300
274.89%
Other services
-5,900
-1,800
-30.51%
300
5.08%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-25,900
-
-23,700
-


Recovery
by Sector



Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality have recovered 11.29%, 10.56%, 62.44%, 11.21%, 169.96% and
229.15% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By October 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Information and Other Services are still negative,
namely -59.29% and -30.51% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will
increase for every sector except Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities and
Information.
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Manufacturing
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.81
1,700
RMW
1.20
9,000
Nation
0.48
31,000
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.33
-1,900
RMW
0.27
7,500
Nation
0
0
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
National
RMW
IL
60.00
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.15
1,800
RMW
-0.05
-1,800
Nation
0.19
51,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.31
-300
RMW
-0.54
-1,600
Nation
-0.04
-1,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Financial activities
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.05
-200
RMW
0.38
4,000
Nation
0.06
5,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Professional & business services
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.12
-1,100
RMW
0.63
15,600
Nation
0.39
78,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.88
7,900
RMW
0.79
24,800
Nation
0.26
57,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Leisure & hospitality
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.63
3,500
RMW
0.00
0
Nation
0.27
41,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other Services
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.59
1,500
RMW
0.54
4,400
Nation
0.18
10,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
Sep 2015- Oct 2015
%
Change
130.00
Number of
Jobs
125.00
Illinois
0.14
1,200
RMW
-0.08
-2,300
Nation
0.01
3,000
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 11/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9