Illinois Job Index
Release
12/29/2015
Data
Jan 1990 / Nov 2015
Issue
2015.12
www.real.illinois.edu
For November 2015 Illinois Job Index, the nation, RMW and Illinois all had positive job growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The
objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois
employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics
Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Oct 2015– Nov 2015

Dec
2015
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
0.15
RMW
Illinois
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Nov 2015
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
211,000
1.88
2,637,000
10.95%
0.11
21,100
1.48
292,400
10.84%
0.01
400
0.61
35,700
10.19%
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois 
Notes
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois gained 400 jobs in November 2015, compared with a 13,700 job gain in October 2015.
Compared to November 2014, Illinois has added 35,700 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more
stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 3,700 jobs per month.
The Nation added 211,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a 298,000 job gain in October 2015.
The three-month moving average was up by 218,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 21,100 jobs in November after a 62,500 job gain in October 2015. The three-month
moving average was up by 11,300 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has positive job gains 51 times and
negative job changes 43 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 60,700 jobs since the beginning
of the recession in December 2007.
Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, Financial Activities and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 342,300 new jobs.
By November 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show
that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing and
Information.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.19%, 10.84% and 10.95%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 5.7%, 4.5% and 5.0%.
Through November 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 12.51%, 17.21%, and 30.93%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 211,000 jobs. Sectors such as Construction, Leisure &
hospitality and Education & health had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 4,550,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2015 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%,
0.13%, 0.14%, 0.14%, 0.19% and 0.15% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – November 2015
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
November 2015
Number of Jobs
142,900,000
20,032,600
5,927,200
Current
Index to Jan 1990
130.93
117.21
112.51
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
33,755,000
2,942,000
658,900
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
4,550,000
-366,400
-129,800
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates December 2014 – November 2015
Dec/14
Jan/15
Feb/15
Mar/15
Apr/15
May/15
Jun/15
Jul/15
Aug/15
Sep/15
Oct/15
Nov/15
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Nation
RMW
IL
-0.30%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2015- November
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
40,800 jobs/year
104,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
25,500 jobs/year
65,100 jobs/year
In 10 years
20,400 jobs/year
52,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
13,600 jobs/year
34,700 jobs/year
* The figure 546,200 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 472,100. Adding 74,100, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 546,200.
**The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 342,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through November 2015.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, October 2015 – November 2015
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation


Sector
notes
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Illinois Jobs Index
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
RMW
2.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in November 2015 by adding 400 jobs. Five out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to October 2015, Information (-0.41% to 0.00%) had a major
performance gain, while Construction (0.62% to -0.71%) had a major performance loss. Other
Services (0.67% to 0.79%) and Manufacturing (-0.39% to -0.02%) also experienced performance
gains, while Government (0.14% to 0.01%), Leisure & hospitality (0.50% to 0.16%), Education
& health (0.78% to -0.12%), Professional & business services (-0.11% to -0.13%), Financial
Activities (0.05% to 0.03%) and Trade, transportation & utilities (0.26% to 0.10%) experienced
net losses in performances.
In November at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Construction: 46,000 (0.71%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 39,000 (0.26%)
o Education & health: 40,000 (0.18%)
The two sectors that lost jobs at the national level in November were:
o Information: -12,000 (-0.43%)
o Manufacturing: -1,000 (-0.01%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in November were:
o Other Services: 2,000 (0.79%)
o Leisure & hospitality: 900 (0.16%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 1,200 (0.10%)
The top-three sectors that lost jobs in November for Illinois were:
o Education & health: -1,100 (-0.12%)
o Professional & business services: -1,200 (-0.13%)
o Construction: -1,500 (-0.71%)
For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 355,800 jobs, Construction is down 21,200 jobs, Information
down 32,700 jobs and Financial activities has 3,700 fewer jobs.
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – November 2015
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-21,200
Rate %
-9.20
%
12.68
%
19.70
Manufacturing
-
-
-355,800
-38.58
-23.42
-30.78
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
35,800
3.12
7.42
19.13
Information
-
-
-32,700
-25.10
-17.14
4.68
Financial activities
-
-
-3,700
-0.99
18.00
24.25
Professional & business services
-
-
365,000
63.81
74.49
85.31
Education & health
-
-
375,400
70.95
73.95
106.92
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
179,300
46.70
37.31
65.02
Other Services
+
-
50,800
24.71
22.39
34.09
Government
+
-
75,600
10.01
9.82
21.12
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – November 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Nov
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010November 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
5,300
8.31%
9,600
15.05%
Manufacturing
-114,600
11,700
10.21%
2,200
1.92%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
63,500
64.99%
65,500
67.04%
Information
-11,300
-6,800
-60.18%
-8,000
-70.80%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-33,000
-92,200
32,600
4,200
155,600
82,600
12.73%
168.76%
-
6,300
162,300
101,100
19.09%
176.03%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
51,300
230.04%
60,800
272.65%
Other services
-5,900
400
6.78%
2,700
45.76%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-25,800
-
-24,000
-


Recovery
by Sector



Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure
& hospitality and Other Services have recovered 8.31%, 10.21%, 64.99%, 12.73%, 168.76%,
230.04% and 6.78% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By November 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, the recovery rate for Information is still negative, namely -60.18%.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will
increase for every sector except Manufacturing and Information.
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Manufacturing
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.71
-1,500
RMW
2.19
16,700
Nation
0.71
46,000
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.02
-100
RMW
-0.03
-800
Nation
-0.01
-1,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
National
RMW
IL
60.00
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.10
1,200
RMW
0.07
2,800
Nation
0.18
49,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.00
0
RMW
0.24
700
Nation
-0.43
-12,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Financial activities
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.03
100
RMW
0.11
1,200
Nation
0.17
14,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Professional & business services
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.13
-1,200
RMW
-0.41
-10,300
Nation
0.14
27,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.12
-1,100
RMW
0.00
0
Nation
0.18
40,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Leisure & hospitality
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.16
900
RMW
0.52
10,300
Nation
0.26
39,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other Services
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.79
2,000
RMW
0.04
300
Nation
0.11
6,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illinois Jobs Index
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
Oct 2015- Nov 2015
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.01
100
RMW
0.02
500
Nation
0.06
14,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 12/29/2015
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9