Illinois Job Index
Release
3/29/2016
Data
Jan 1990 / Feb 2016
Issue
2016.3
www.real.illinois.edu
For February 2016 Illinois Job Index, the nation, Illinois and RMW all had positive growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is
to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth
rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data
and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Jan 2015– Feb 2015

March
2016
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
0.17
RMW
Illinois
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Feb 2016
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
242,000
1.90
2,672,000
10.23
0.18
35,700
1.47
292,700
9.86
0.30
18,100
1.11
65,700
9.69
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois
Notes 
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois added 18,100 jobs in February 2016, compared with a revised 1,500 job gain in January 2016.
Compared to February 2015, Illinois has added 65,700 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more
stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 3,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 242,000 jobs at a rate of 0.17%, compared with a revised 172,000 job gain in January
2016. The three-month moving average was up by 228,300 jobs per month.
The RMW added 35,700 jobs in February after a revised 34,100 job gain in January 2016. The threemonth moving average was up by 38,100 jobs per month.
The state of Illinois now has 8,600 more jobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession started.
Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 410,100 new jobs.
By February 2016 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show
that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Trade, transportation &
utilities and Information.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.69%, 9.86% and 10.23%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.4%, 4.6% and 4.9%.
Through February 2016, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 13.77%, 17.93%, and 31.48%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 242,000 jobs. Sectors such as Leisure & hospitalities,
Trade, transportation & utilities and Education & health had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 5,147,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2016 were -0.01%, -0.24%, -0.38%, 0.09%,
0.13%, 0.11%, 0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12% and 0.14% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – February 2016
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Nation
RMW
Illinois
February 2016
Number of Jobs
143,560,000
20,154,800
5,993,800
Current
Index to Jan 1990
131.48
117.93
113.77
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
34,376,000
3,064,200
725,500
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
5,147,000
-248,900
-60,200
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates March 2015 – February 2016
Mar/15
Apr/15
May/15
Jun/15
Jul/15
Aug/15
Sep/15
Oct/15
Nov/15
Dec/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Nation
RMW
IL
-0.30%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2016 – February
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
20,000 jobs/year
96,800 jobs/year
In 8 years
12,500 jobs/year
60,500 jobs/year
In 10 years
10,000 jobs/year
48,400 jobs/year
In 15 years
6,700 jobs/year
32,300 jobs/year
* The figure 510,300 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 470,300. Adding 40,000, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 510,300.
**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 410,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through February 2016.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, January 2016 – February 2016
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
Nation
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Sector
notes
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Illinois Jobs Index
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in February 2016 by adding 18,100 jobs. Five out of ten sectors
recorded net gains. Compared to January 2016, Other Services (-0.83% to 1.15%) had a major
performance gain, while Construction (0.09% to -1.10%) had a major performance loss.
Government (-0.31% to 0.16%), Leisure & hospitality (0.12% to 0.72%), Professional & business
services (-0.01% to 0.72%), Financial activities (-0.45% to -0.11%), Information(-0.60% to
0.00%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.30% to 0.37%) and Manufacturing (0.12% to 0.61%)
also experienced performance gains, while Education & health (0.35% to -0.22%) also
experienced net loss in performance.
In February at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 48,000 (0.31%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 53,000 (0.20%)
o Education & health: 86,000 (0.38%)
The only sector that lost jobs at the national level was:
o Manufacturing: -16,000 (-0.13%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in February were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 4,200 (0.72%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 4,500 (0.37%)
o Professional & business services: 6,600 (0.72%)
The top-three sectors that lost jobs in February for Illinois were:
o Construction: -2,400 (-1.10%)
o Financial Activities: -400 (-0.11%)
o Education & health: -2,000 (-0.22%)
For Illinois, three sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 341,700 jobs, Construction is down 14,800 jobs and Information
has 31,700 fewer jobs.
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – February 2016
Illinois
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
vs.
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-14,800
Rate %
-6.42
%
17.84
%
22.30
Manufacturing
-
-
-341,700
-37.05
-23.93
-30.74
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
58,800
5.12
8.38
19.76
Information
-
-
-31,700
-24.33
-19.62
4.08
Financial activities
-
-
5,200
1.40
18.07
24.69
Professional & business services
-
-
350,200
61.22
74.27
85.74
Education & health
-
-
378,700
71.57
74.95
108.65
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
204,800
53.35
38.45
66.15
Other Services
-
-
49,500
24.08
25.05
34.40
Government
-
-
76,000
10.06
10.58
21.44
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – February 2016
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Feb
2016
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010February 2017
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
14,100
22.10%
14,900
23.35%
Manufacturing
-114,600
22,300
19.46%
34,100
29.76%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
82,000
83.93%
78,400
80.25%
Information
-11,300
-5,800
-51.33%
-9,600
-84.96%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,600
-92,300
33,800
5,300
142,200
89,300
16.26%
154.06%
-
10,900
154,700
101,200
33.44%
167.61%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
72,600
325.56%
83,700
375.34%
Other services
-5,900
-3,800
-64.41%
-600
-10.17%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-26,700
-
-26,900
-

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Recovery
by Sector
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Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing,
Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality have recovered 22.10%, 19.46%, 83.93%, 16.26%, 154.06% and
325.56% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By February 2016, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, the recovery rates for Information and Other Services are still negative, namely 51.33% and -64.41%.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will
increase for every sector except Trade, transportation & utilities and Information.
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Manufacturing
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-1.10
-2,400
RMW
0.94
7,600
Nation
0.29
19,000
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.61
3,500
RMW
-0.41
-11,400
Nation
-0.13
-16,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
National
RMW
IL
60.00
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.37
4,500
RMW
0.49
18,500
Nation
0.20
53,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.00
0
RMW
-0.49
-1,400
Nation
0.43
12,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Financial activities
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.11
-400
RMW
0.49
5,200
Nation
0.07
6,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Professional & business services
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.72
6,600
RMW
-0.39
-9,700
Nation
0.12
23,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.22
-2,000
RMW
0.43
13,500
Nation
0.38
86,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Leisure & hospitality
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.72
4,200
RMW
0.33
6,500
Nation
0.31
48,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other Services
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
1.15
2,900
RMW
0.28
2,400
Nation
0.30
17,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.16
1,300
RMW
0.19
5,400
Nation
0.05
12,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan.
More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 3/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9