I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
JANUARY 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois lost 3,200 jobs in December 2013, compared with a 10,700 job gain in November 2013.
Compared to December 2012, Illinois has added 62,200 jobs. The three-month moving average, a
more stable measure of labor market, was up by 8,200 jobs per month.
The Nation added 74,000 jobs at a rate of 0.05%, compared with a 241,000 job gain in November
2013. The three-month moving average was up by 172,000 jobs per month.
The RMW lost 4,900 jobs in December at a rate of -0.03% after a 35,500 job gain in November. The
three-month moving average was up by 22,300 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 34
times and positive job gains 37 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 152,800 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 250,900 new jobs.
By December 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered
to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the
future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU,
Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.67%, 13.26% and
12.06%, compared to official unemployment rates of 8.6%, 6.9% and 6.7%.
Through December 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.76%, 13.28%, and 25.41%, respectively.
DECEMBER 2013
Total NonFarm
Employment
JAN
Positive
Nation
RMW*
Illinois
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
Nov 2013– Dec 2013
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Dec 2013
Shadow
U.R. **
0.05
74,000
1.62
2,186,000
12.06%
-0.03
-4,900
1.22
232,400
13.26%
-0.05
-3,200
1.08
62,200
12.67%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – D E C 2013
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E JA N 2 0 1 3 – D E C
2013
Jan/13
Feb/13 Mar/13 Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13 Dec/13
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Nov 2013 – Dec 2013
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
Nation
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
RMW
S HA D OW
1.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2013, it has been only
65.46%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2013, it has been 63.26%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2008, the gap between the official and the shadow unemployment rate has increased
gradually.
To bring the two together a further 243,500 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
December
2013
5,835,100
183,100
577,600
1,185,000
100,500
370,300
898,300
880,700
545,100
256,900
827,100
December 2014
(p)
5,898,300
178,500
585,300
1,204,100
100,700
369,300
927,700
898,000
554,700
261,600
818,300
Number of Jobs
63,200 ~ 84,400
-4,600
7,700
19,100
200
-1,000
29,400
17,300
9,600
4,700
-8,800
Growth Rate
%
1.08% ~ 1.45%
-2.51%
1.33%
1.61%
0.20%
-0.27%
3.27%
1.96%
1.76%
1.83%
-1.06%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (2.29%)
INF (-11.65%)
0.05%~0.18%
+
INF (2.31%)
MAN (-2.65%)
7,300~31,400
0.17%~0.75%
+
PRO(2.75%)
FIN (-2.31%)
185,000
900~-1,300
0.48%~ 0.70%
+
EDU (2.15%)
INF (-3.96%)
50,300
50,400
100~300
0.17%~0.53%
+
PRO (7.10%)
MAN (-3.13%)
Kankakee
43,960
44,040
80~320
0.18%~ 0.73%
+
OTH (2.69%)
CON (-1.38%)
Peoria
182,300
183,500
1,200~1,300
0.66 %~ 0.70%
+
PRO (3.84%)
FIN (-0.49%)
Rockford
149,100
149,900
800~1,200
0.53%~0.77%
+
EDU (2.12%)
CON (-11.65%)
Springfield
112,530
112,480
-50~ 300
-0.04%~ 0.23%
-
PRO (3.17%)
INF (-10.85%)
Nov 2013*
Nov
2014
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
89,900
89,400
-500 ~ -400
-0.64%~ -0.48%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
106,200
106,300
100~200
Chicago
4,174,800
4,182,100
184,100
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
150000
2014
1990
Year
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
7
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
60000
46000
58000
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
30000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2012
2014
Year
118000
1990
2010
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2013- Dec
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
93,100 jobs/year
137,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
58,200 jobs/year
85,800 jobs/year
In 10 years
46,500 jobs/year
68,600 jobs/year
In 15 years
31,000 jobs/year
45,800 jobs/year
* The figure 716,300 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point Dec-2009 is
472,800. Adding 243,500, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 716,300.
**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 250,900 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through December 2013.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – December 2013
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Dec
2013
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Dec 2014
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-20,800
-32.60%
-25,400
-39.81%
Manufacturing
-114,500
22,700
19.83%
30,400
26.55%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
64,100
66.01%
83,200
85.68%
Information
-11,300
-3,900
-34.51%
-3,700
-32.74%
Financial activities
-32,700
5,300
16.21%
4,300
13.15%
Professional & business services
-92,700
117,400
126.65%
146,800
158.36%
Education & health
32,200
59,200
--
76,500
--
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
33,200
148.88%
42,800
191.93%
Other Services
-6,300
1,300
20.63%
6,000
95.24%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-29,200
--
-38,000
--


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other
services have recovered 19.83%, 66.01%, 16.21%, 126.65%, 148.88%
and 20.63% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By December 2013, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction and
Information are still negative, namely, -32.60% and -34.51% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities (TTU), Professional & business services,
Leisure & hospitality and Other services.
Construction is predicted to continue to lose jobs.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
125.41
(Dec 2013)
113.28
(Dec 2013)
110.76
(Dec 2013)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
December 2013**
84.39%
64.89%
62.15%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
137.72
(Nov 2013)
107.70
(Nov 2013)
111.10
(Nov 2013)
111.21
(Nov 2013)
93.21
(Nov 2013)
122.65
(Nov 2013)
116.93
(Nov 2013)
110.57
(Nov 2013)
105.87
(Nov 2013)
105.59
(Nov 2013)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
65.92%
51.87%
NA
55.95%
51.28%
31.51%
87.86%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN NOVEMBER
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 97.4 in November from 95.4 in October. The
increase is attributed to positive job growth in nonmanufacturing and construction sectors and to the
improvement of retail activities in the Chicago area.

In November, the national and regional economies shared positive features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that industrial production index increased 1.1 percent in November after having edged up 0.1
percent in October. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point in November
to 79.0 percent.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.60 in
November from -0.07 in October, led by gains in employment and production. In the Chicago region, the
employment in nonmanufacturing and construction rose 0.12 percent and 0.94 percent in November
respectively while manufacturing employment decreased 0.3 percent. Retail sales are estimated to have
risen 1.08%.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its recovery trend. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was above its historical trend. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 74,000 in
December, and the unemployment rate declined from 7.0 percent to 6.7 percent. Considering recent national
economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its
recovery trend over the next several months.
140
CBAI (Current: 94.7)
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
1 month 3 month 1 year
trend
100
97.4
Historical (ago)
95.4
92.3
89.2
Forecast (ahead)
99.5
103.3
-
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
01/14
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (1st to 10th) experienced the deepest fall in November
2013.

Decatur (2nd to 3rd) and Chicago (4th to 7th) also dropped in terms of rank from October.

The most remarkable upward move in November was recorded for Springfield (5th to 2nd),
Rockford (7th to 4th) and Bloomington-Normal (8th to 5th).

Kankakee (3rd to 1st), Peoria (10th to 8th) and Metro-East (10th to 9th) also gained in
terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Springfield (4th to
3rd), Kankakee (5th to 4th) and Bloomington-Normal (8th to 7th)

Downward moves were recorded for Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (3th to 5th) and
Metro-East (7th to 8th).

Chicago, Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul, Rockford, Peoria and Decatur remained in the same
place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur is in the last place and Chicago is in the first
place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Oct 2013
Nov 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.92%)
Kankakee(0.5%)
1
(+2)
2
Decatur(0.69%)
Springfield (0.39%)
2
(+3)
3
Kankakee (0.42%)
Decatur (0.37%)
3
 (-1)
4
Chicago (0.22%)
Rockford (0.25%)
4
(+3)
5
Springfield (0.2%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.18%)
5
(+3)
6
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.13%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.17%)
6
(+0)
7
Rockford (0.04%)
Chicago (0.12%)
7
(-3)
8
Bloomington-Normal (-0.14%)
Peoria (0.05%)
8
(+2)
9
Peoria (-0.22%)
Metro-East(-0.17%)
9
(+1)
10
Metro-East (-0.34%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.7%)
10
(-9)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Oct 2013
Nov 2013
Rank
Change**
1
Chicago (1.37%)
Chicago (1.38%)
1
(+0)
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.99%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.01%)
2
(+0)
3
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.77%)
Springfield (0.55%)
3
(+1)
4
Springfield (0.11%)
Kankakee (0.22%)
4
(+1)
5
Kankakee (-0.28%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.1%)
5
 (-2)
6
Rockford (-0.92%)
Rockford (-0.31%)
6
(+0)
7
Metro-East (-1.15%)
Bloomington-Normal (-1.02%)
7
(+1)
8
Bloomington-Normal (-1.36%)
Metro-East (-1.46%)
8
 (-1)
9
Peoria (-2.16%)
Peoria (-1.64%)
9
(+0)
10
Decatur (-4.73%)
Decatur (-3.24%)
10
(+0)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15