I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
MARCH 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 6,400 jobs in February 2014, compared with an 18,000 job loss in January 2014.
Compared to February 2013, Illinois has added 26,500 jobs. The three-month moving average, a
more stable measure of labor market, showed a decrease of 3,000 jobs per month.
The Nation added 175,000 jobs at a rate of 0.13%, compared with a 129,000 job gain in January 2014.
The three-month moving average was up by 129,300 jobs per month.
The RMW added 4,300 jobs in February after a 6,800 job loss in January 2014. The three-month
moving average was up by 4,600 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 35
times and positive job gains 38 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 171,700 jobs since
the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 231,300 new jobs.
By February 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to
its previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also show that the
future recovery rates will increase for these two sectors.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.25%, 12.56% and
11.76%, compared to official unemployment rates of 8.7%, 6.5% and 6.7%.
Through February 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.40%, 14.10%, and 26.12%, respectively.
FEBRUARY 2014
Total NonFarm
Employment
Mar
Positive
Nation
RMW*
Illinois
E M P LOY ME N T C HA RT
Jan 2013– Feb 2014
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Feb 2014
Shadow
U.R. **
0.13
175,000
1.59
2,158,000
11.76%
0.02
4300
1.03
198,900
12.56%
0.11
6,400
0.46
26,500
12.25%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – FEB 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
IL
RMW
National
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E M A R 2 0 1 3 – F E B
2014
Mar/13
Apr/13 May/13 Jun/13
Jul/13
Nation
IL
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13 Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
0.50%
RMW
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector JAN 2014 –FEB 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation
S HA D OW
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has increased but
recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has increased significantly since
2008.
To bring the two together a further 214,700 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
February
2014
5,816,200
194,500
574,000
1,156,400
96,900
368,400
904,700
878,800
549,000
252,800
831,000
February
2015 (p)
5,826,100
197,600
566,700
1,131,500
93,600
368,300
940,800
891,400
553,600
252,200
830,300
Number of Jobs
9,900 ~ 44,700
3,100
-7,300
-24,900
-3,300
-100
36,100
12,600
4,600
-600
-700
Growth Rate
%
0.17%~ 0.77%
1.59%
-1.27%
-2.15%
-3.41%
-0.03%
3.99%
1.43%
0.84%
-0.24%
-0.08%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (2.01%)
INF (-5.90%)
0.58%~ 1.11%
+
EDU (3.36%)
MAN (-4. 05%)
49,900~76,100
1.19%~1.82%
+
EDU (2.83%)
CON (-1.53%)
182,700
200~700
0.09%~ 0.36%
+
EDU (1.90%)
INF (-3.28%)
51,700
52,200
500~700
-0.08%~0.09%
+
PRO (6.51%)
MAN (-3.04%)
Kankakee
44,100
44,600
500~700
1.19%~ 1.70%
+
OTH (2.39%)
INF (0.02%)
Peoria
178,200
179,100
900~1,100
0.51 %~ 0.60%
+
PRO (2.86%)
INF (0.02%)
Rockford
147,400
147,600
200~500
0.12%~0.33%
+
PRO (2.72%)
INF (-8.27%)
Springfield
111,200
111,400
200~ 300
0.14%~ 0.23%
+
EDU (1.68%)
INF (-4.12%)
Jan 2014*
Jan
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
88,900
87,600
-1,300 ~ -900
-1.45%~ -1.00%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
107,200
107,800
600~1,200
Chicago
4,190,400
4,240,400
182,500
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
4000000
180000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
150000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
60000
46000
58000
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
30000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
118000
1990
2012
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- Feb
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
89,900 jobs/year
130,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
56,200 jobs/year
81,300 jobs/year
In 10 years
45,000 jobs/year
65,000 jobs/year
In 15 years
30,000 jobs/year
43,400 jobs/year
* The figure 680,800 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
466,100. Adding 214,700, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 680,800.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 231,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through February 2014.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –February 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Feb
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Feb 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-9,400
-14.73%
-6,300
-9.87%
Manufacturing
-114,500
19,200
16.75%
11,900
10.38%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
36,100
36.95%
11,200
11.46%
Information
-11,300
-7,500
-66.37%
-10,800
-95.58%
Financial activities
-32,700
3,700
11.21%
3,600
10.91%
Professional & business services
-92,700
123,300
133.73%
159,400
172.89%
Education & health
32,200
56,900
-
69,500
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
37,100
166.37%
41,700
187.00%
Other Services
-6,300
-3,200
-54.24%
-3,800
-64.41%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-25,700
-
-26,400
-


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 16.75%, 36.95%, 11.21%, 133.73% and 166.37% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By February 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information
and Other Services are still negative, namely, -14.73%, -66.37% and 54.24% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Professional & business
services and Leisure & hospitality.
Information & Other Services are predicted to continue to lose jobs.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
126.12
(Feb 2014)
114.10
(Feb 2014)
110.40
(Feb 2014)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
February 2014**
91.21%
74.20%
57.39%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
135.45
(Jan 2014)
108.66
(Jan 2014)
111.40
(Jan 2014)
110.32
(Jan 2014)
95.16
(Jan 2014)
121.88
(Jan 2014)
114.59
(Jan 2014)
109.28
(Jan 2014)
104.49
(Jan 2014)
106.27
(Jan 2014)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
70.77%
39.26%
NA
60.43%
26.10%
23.13%
46.83%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN JANUARY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 102.5 in January from 100.4 in December. The
increase is attributed to positive job growth in manufacturing, nonmanufacturing and construction and to the
improvement of retail activities in the Chicago area.

In January, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that industrial production index decreased 0.2 percent in January after having little changed in
December. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.3 percentage points to 78.5 in January
after being unchanged in December.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to -0.39 in
January from -0.04 in December, led by a fall in production. In the Chicago region, the employment in
manufacturing and nonmanufacturing rose 0.36 percent and 0.07 percent respectively in January.
Construction employment increased 2.96 percent and retail sales are estimated to have risen 1.56 percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its recovery trend. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was above its historical trend. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 175,000 in February, and
the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.7 percent. Considering recent national economic conditions
and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the
next several months.
140
CBAI (Current: 102.5)
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
102.5
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
100.4
95.2
95.9
Forecast (ahead)
96.1
91.2
-
trend
100
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
01/14
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Chicago (2nd to 10th) experienced the deepest fall in January 2013.

Decatur (1st to 2nd), Metro-East (4th to 7th), Peoria (3th to 8th) and Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline (5th to 9th) also dropped in terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward moves in January were recorded for Kankakee (8th to 1st) and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (10th to 3rd).

Bloomington-Normal (9th to 4th), Rockford (6th to 5th) and Springfield (7th to 6th) also gained
in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for ChampaignUrbana-Rantoul (7th to 5th), Kankakee (5th to 3rd), Metro-East (9th to 5th) and Decatur
(10th to 7th).

Downward moves were recorded for Springfield (2nd to 4th), Davenport-Rock IslandMoline (3th to 8th), Peoria (6th to 9th) and Bloomington-Normal (8th to 10th).

Chicago remained in the same place in the 12 months growth league table.

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal is in the last place and Chicago
is in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Dec 2013
Jan 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Decatur(0.27%)
Kankakee (0.49%)
1
(+7)
2
Chicago(0.08%)
Decatur (0.29%)
2
(-1)
3
Peoria (0.03%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.27%)
3
(+7)
4
Metro-East (-0.03%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.24%)
4
(+5)
5
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.04%)
Rockford (0.15%)
5
(+1)
6
Rockford (-0.17%)
Springfield (0.11%)
6
(+1)
7
Springfield (-0.23%)
Metro-East (0.1%)
7
(-3)
8
Kankakee (-0.47%)
Peoria (0.1%)
8
(-5)
9
Bloomington-Normal (-0.56%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.1%)
9
(-4)
10
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.92%)
Chicago (0.03%)
10
(-8)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Dec 2013
Jan 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Chicago (1.64%)
Chicago (1.33%)
1
(+0)
2
Springfield (0.77%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.26%)
2
(+5)
3
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.7%)
Kankakee (1.06%)
3
(+2)
4
Rockford (-0.18%)
Springfield (0.06%)
4
 (-2)
5
Kankakee (-0.47%)
Metro-East (-0.02%)
5
(+4)
6
Peoria (-0.67%)
Rockford (-0.54%)
6
 (-2)
7
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.88%)
Decatur (-0.59%)
7
(+3)
8
Bloomington-Normal (-1.5%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.94%)
8
 (-5)
9
Metro-East (-1.53%)
Peoria (-1.89%)
9
 (-3)
10
Decatur (-2.03%)
Bloomington-Normal (-2.74%)
10
 (-2)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15