I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
APRIL 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois lost 3,200 jobs in March 2014, compared with an 8,300 job gain in February 2014. Compared
to March 2013, Illinois has added 29,400 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable
measure of labor market, showed a decrease of 4,300 jobs per month.
The Nation added 203,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15% in March 2014, compared with a 222,000 job gain
in February 2014. The three-month moving average was up by 190,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 13,500 jobs in March after a 1,200 job loss in February 2014. The three-month
moving average was up by 1,800 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 36
times and positive job gains 38 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 173,000 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 230,000 new jobs.
By March 2014, Illinois’s Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for these two sectors and Financial Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.92%, 12.35% and
11.54% in March 2014, compared to official unemployment rates of 8.4%, 6.3% and 6.7%.
Through March 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.38%, 14.15%, and 26.36%, respectively.
MARCH 2014
Total NonFarm
Employment
Apr
Negative
Nation
RMW*
Illinois
E MP L OY ME N T C HA RT
Feb 2013– Mar 2014
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Mar 2014
Shadow
U.R. **
0.15
203,000
1.68
2,282,000
11.54%
0.07
13500
1.14
219,200
12.35%
-0.06
-3,200
0.51
29,400
11.92%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – MAR 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TO TA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E A P R 2 0 1 3 – M A R
2014
Apr/13 May/13
Jun/13
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13 Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14 Mar/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector FEB 2014 –MAR 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation
0.50%
1.00%
RMW
S HA D OW
1.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
For Illinois since 2000, the gap between the official and shadow unemployment rate has increased but
recently since the early 2006 the gap has decreased. However, the gap has increased significantly since
2008.
To bring the two together a further 192,100 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
March
2014
5,814,900
191,500
573,600
1,155,900
98,200
369,100
903,600
879,900
552,400
250,900
830,100
March
2015 (p)
5,816,500
191,400
566,400
1,138,300
97,100
369,200
926,600
891,300
557,400
249,600
829,300
Number of Jobs
1,600 ~ 14,700
-100
-7,200
-17,600
-1,100
100
23,000
11,400
5,000
-1,300
-800
Growth Rate
%
0.03%~ 0.25%
-0.05%
-1.26%
-1.52%
-1.12%
0.03%
2.55%
1.30%
0.91%
-0.52%
-0.10%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (0.93%)
INF (-7.10%)
0.43%~ 1.00%
+
EDU (3.27%)
MAN (-4.47%)
34,400~56,000
0.82%~1.34%
+
PRO (2.71%)
TTU (-1.12%)
183,100
500~800
0.27%~ 0.42%
+
EDU (2.23%)
INF (-2.77%)
51,400
52,100
700~1,100
1.44%~2.21%
+
PRO (5.49%)
INF (-2.50%)
Kankakee
43,700
44,200
500~600
1.07%~ 1.43%
+
PRO (2.22%)
CON (-0.95%)
Peoria
178,700
180,200
1,500~1,800
0.84 %~ 1.01%
+
PRO (3.84%)
INF (-2.72%)
Rockford
147,300
147,500
200~400
0.14%~0.27%
+
PRO (2.59%)
INF (-8.45%)
Springfield
111,100
111,400
300~400
0.29%~ 0.40%
+
PRO (4.21%)
INF (-4.84%)
Feb 2014*
Feb
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
88,500
87,300
-1,200 ~ -800
-1.35%~ -0.94%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
107,200
107,700
500~1,100
Chicago
4,186,200
4,220,500
182,600
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
165000
3600000
160000
3400000
155000
150000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
Year
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
7
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
60000
46000
58000
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
30000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
145000
160000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2012
2014
Year
Year
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- Mar
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
85,600 jobs/year
125,600 jobs/year
In 8 years
53,500 jobs/year
78,500 jobs/year
In 10 years
42,800 jobs/year
62,800 jobs/year
In 15 years
28,500 jobs/year
41,900 jobs/year
*The figure 658,200 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
466,100. Adding 192,100, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 658,200.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 230,000 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through March 2014.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –March 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Mar
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Mar 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-12,400
-19.44%
-12,500
-19.59%
Manufacturing
-114,500
18,800
16.40%
11,600
10.12%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
35,600
36.44%
18,000
18.42%
Information
-11,300
-6,200
-54.87%
-7,300
-64.60%
Financial activities
-32,700
4,400
13.33%
4,500
13.64%
Professional & business services
-92,700
122,200
132.54%
145,200
157.48%
Education & health
32,200
58,000
-
69,400
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
40,500
181.61%
45,500
204.04%
Other Services
-6,300
-5,100
-86.44%
-6,400
-108.47%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-26,600
-
-27,400
-


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 16.40%, 36.44%, 13.33%, 132.54% and 181.61% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By March 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information
and Other Services are still negative, namely, -19.44%, -54.87% and 86.44% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Professional & business
services, Financial Services and Leisure & hospitality.
Information, Construction and Other Services are predicted to continue
to lose jobs.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
126.36
(Mar 2014)
114.15
(Mar 2014)
110.38
(Mar 2014)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
March 2014**
95.54%
74.77%
57.07%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
135.14
(Feb 2014)
108.34
(Feb 2014)
111.38
(Feb 2014)
110.26
(Feb 2014)
95.07
(Feb 2014)
121.89
(Feb 2014)
114.81
(Feb 2014)
109.07
(Feb 2014)
104.40
(Feb 2014)
106.39
(Feb 2014)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
69.12%
43.33%
NA
47.29%
35.99%
23.10%
32.07%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN FEBRUARY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 100.1 in February from 103.1 in January. The
decrease is attributed to a decline in job growth in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors in the
Chicago area.

In February, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that the industrial production index increased 1.2 percent in February after having declined 0.2
percent in January. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.6 percentage points to 78.8 in
February after having fallen to 78.1 in January.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.14 in
February from -0.45 in January, led by a rise in production and consumption. In the Chicago region, the
employment in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing fell 0.20 percent and 0.01 percent respectively in
February. Construction employment increased 0.02 percent and retail sales are estimated to have risen 0.55
percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its recovery trend. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was below its historical trend. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March, and
the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent. Considering recent national economic conditions and
movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the
next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
CBAI (Current: 100.1)
100.1
100
trend
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
103.1
96.4
103.0
Forecast (ahead)
94.1
89.5
-
80
below
trend
60
40
20
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
01/14
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Kankakee (1st to 10th) experienced the deepest fall in February 2014.

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (3rd to 4th), Springfield (6th to 7th), Bloomington-Normal (4th
to 8th) and Decatur (2nd to 9th) also dropped in terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward moves in February were recorded for Metro-East (7th to 1st),
Peoria (8th to 2nd) and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (9th to 3rd).

Chicago (10th to 6th) also gained in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for ChampaignUrbana-Rantoul (2th to 1st), Springfield (4th to 3rd) and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline
(8th to 7th).

Downward moves were recorded for Chicago (1st to 2nd), Kankakee (3th to 4th) and
Decatur (7th to 8th).

Metro-East, Rockford, Peoria and Bloomington-Normal remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal is in the last place and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul climbed to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Jan 2014
Feb 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Kankakee (0.49%)
Metro-East (0.55%)
1
(+6)
2
Decatur (0.29%)
Peoria (0.27%)
2
(+6)
3
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.27%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.08%)
3
(+6)
4
Bloomington-Normal (0.24%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.03%)
4
(-1)
5
Rockford (0.15%)
Rockford (-0.03%)
5
(+0)
6
Springfield (0.11%)
Chicago (-0.1%)
6
(+4)
7
Metro-East (0.1%)
Springfield (-0.17%)
7
(-1)
8
Peoria (0.1%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.52%)
8
(-4)
9
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.1%)
Decatur (-0.56%)
9
(-7)
10
Chicago (0.03%)
Kankakee (-0.96%)
10
(-9)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Jan 2014
Feb 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Chicago (1.33%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.68%)
1
(+1)
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.26%)
Chicago (0.95%)
2
 (-1)
3
Kankakee (1.06%)
Springfield (0.01%)
3
(+1)
4
Springfield (0.06%)
Kankakee (0.00%)
4
 (-1)
5
Metro-East (-0.02%)
Metro-East (-0.10%)
5
(+0)
6
Rockford (-0.54%)
Rockford (-0.45%)
6
(+0)
7
Decatur (-0.59%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-1.04%)
7
(+1)
8
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.94%)
Decatur (-1.14%)
8
 (-1)
9
Peoria (-1.89%)
Peoria (-1.9%)
9
(+0)
10
Bloomington-Normal (-2.74%)
Bloomington-Normal (-2.12%)
10
(+0)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15