I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
MAY 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois lost 6,800 jobs in April 2014, compared with a 3,700 job loss in March 2014. Compared to
April 2013, Illinois has added 29,300 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure
of labor market, showed a decrease of 800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 288,000 jobs in April at a rate of 0.21%, compared with a 203,000 job gain in
March 2014. The three-month moving average was up by 237,700 jobs per month.
The RMW added 39,700 jobs in April after a 14,500 job gain in March 2014. The three-month
moving average was up by 17,700 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37
times and positive job gains 38 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 179,500 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 223,500 new jobs.
By April 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to
their previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also show that
the future recovery rates will increase for these two sectors.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.59%, 12.15% and
11.65% in April 2014, compared to official unemployment rates of 7.9%, 6.1% and 6.3%.
Through April 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.25%, 14.39%, and 26.62%, respectively.
APRIL 2014
Total NonFarm
Employment
May
Negative
Nation
RMW*
Illinois
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
Mar 2013– Apr 2014
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Apr 2014
Shadow
U.R. **
0.21
288,000
1.74
2,367,000
11.65%
0.2
39700
1.27
244,500
12.15%
-0.12
-6,800
0.51
29,300
11.59%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – APR 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E M AY 2 0 1 3 – A P R
2014
May/13 Jun/13
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13 Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14 Mar/14 Apr/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector MAR 2014 –APR 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation
0.50%
RMW
S HA D OW
1.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 169,500 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
April
2014
5,808,400
191,300
571,300
1,161,700
97,000
366,600
898,300
879,200
550,200
252,000
831,000
April
2015 (p)
5,789,700
190,600
551,600
1,157,300
95,200
364,000
899,800
892,400
555,800
251,400
831,600
Growth Rate
%
-0.32%~ -0.12%
-0.37%
-3.45%
-0.38%
-1.86%
-0.71%
0.17%
1.50%
1.02%
-0.24%
0.07%
Number of Jobs
-18,700~ -6,700
-700
-19,700
-4,400
-1,800
-2,600
1,500
13,200
5,600
-600
600
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (0.55%)
INF (-7.46%)
0.30%~ 0.44%
+
PRO (2.72%)
MAN (-4.76%)
27,500~38,000
0.66%~0.93%
+
EDU (2.28%)
MAN (-1.20%)
181,300
-600~ -30
-0.32%~ -0.01%
-
EDU (1.40%)
INF (-3.39%)
51,100
51,500
300~500
0.61%~1.03%
+
PRO (3.22%)
INF (-4.00%)
Kankakee
43,900
44,300
400~450
0.85%~ 1.02%
+
PRO (2.28%)
CON (-2.19%)
Peoria
179,000
180,500
1,600~1,900
0.87 %~ 1.07%
+
TTU (2.72%)
INF (-2.38%)
Rockford
147,100
147,100
0~100
-0.02%~0.07%
-
PRO (2.52%)
INF (-8.50%)
Springfield
110,900
111,300
400~500
0.36%~ 0.48%
+
PRO (4.69%)
INF (-5.88%)
Mar 2014*
Mar
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
88,100
86,800
-1,300 ~ -1,200
-1.45%~ -1.39%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
107,200
107,500
300~500
Chicago
4,181,800
4,209,300
181,900
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
180000
4000000
175000
3800000
170000
165000
3600000
160000
3400000
155000
150000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
60000
46000
58000
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
30000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
145000
160000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2012
2014
Year
Year
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- Apr
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
82,400 jobs/year
121,000 jobs/year
In 8 years
51,500 jobs/year
75,700 jobs/year
In 10 years
41,200 jobs/year
60,500 jobs/year
In 15 years
27,500 jobs/year
40,300 jobs/year
*The figure 635,600 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
466,100. Adding 169,500, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 635,600.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 223,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through April 2014.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –April 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Apr
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Apr 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-12,600
-19.75%
-13,300
-20.85%
Manufacturing
-114,500
16,500
14.40%
-3,200
-2.79%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
41,400
42.37%
37,000
37.87%
Information
-11,300
-7,400
-65.49%
-9,200
-81.42%
Financial activities
-32,700
1,900
5.76%
-700
-2.12%
Professional & business services
-92,700
116,900
126.79%
118,400
128.42%
Education & health
32,200
57,300
-
70,500
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
38,300
171.75%
43,900
196.86%
Other Services
-6,300
-4,000
-67.80%
-4,600
-77.97%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-25,700
-
-25,100
-


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 14.40%, 42.37%, 5.76%, 126.79% and 171.75% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By April 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality
had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information
and Other Services are still negative, namely, -19.75%, -65.49% and 67.80% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Professional & business
services and Leisure & hospitality.
Information, Construction and Other Services are predicted to continue
to lose jobs.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
126.62
(Apr 2014)
114.39
(Apr 2014)
110.25
(Apr 2014)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
April 2014**
98.87%
77.64%
55.46%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
134.52
(Mar2014)
108.49
(Mar2014)
111.30
(Mar2014)
110.01
(Mar2014)
94.82
(Mar2014)
122.19
(Mar2014)
114.66
(Mar2014)
109.11
(Mar2014)
104.26
(Mar2014)
104.26
(Mar2014)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
68.20%
39.47%
NA
52.54%
34.38%
22.65%
16.56%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN MARCH
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 94.7 in March from 97.6 in February. The
decrease is attributed to a decline in job growth in manufacturing and construction sectors in the Chicago
area.

In March, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that the industrial production index increased 0.9 percent in March after having risen 1.1 percent
in February. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.5 percentage points in March to 79.3
following a gain of 0.5 percentage points in February.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.20 in
March from +0.53 in February, led by a fall in consumption- and sales-related indicators. In the Chicago
region, the employment in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing fell 0.18 percent and 0.01 percent
respectively in March. Construction employment decreased 0.67 percent and retail sales are estimated to
have risen 0.96 percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to maintain its recovery trend. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was at its historical trend. The Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 288,000 in April, and the
unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3 percent. Considering recent national economic
conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery
trend over the next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
CBAI (Current: 94.7)
trend
100
94.7
1 month 3 month 1 year
80
Historical (ago)
97.6
100.9
103.5
Forecast (ahead)
97.0
101.4
-
below
trend
60
40
20
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
01/14
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Metro-East (1st to 8th) experienced the deepest fall in March 2014.

Peoria (2nd to 3rd) and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (3rd to 9th) also dropped in terms
of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward moves in March were recorded for Kankakee (10th to 1st).

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (4th to 2nd), Rockford (5th to 4th), Chicago (6th to 5th), Springfield
(7th to 6th), and Bloomington-Normal (8th to 7th) also gained in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Kankakee (4th to
2nd) and Peoria (9th to 8th).

Downward moves were recorded for Chicago (2nd to 3rd), Springfield (3th to 4th) and
Decatur (8th to 9th) in the 12-month league table.

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul,
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline,
Metro-East
and
Bloomington-Normal remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal is at the last place and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Feb 2014
Mar 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Metro-East(0.55%)
Kankakee(0.44%)
1
(+9)
2
Peoria(0.27%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.31%)
2
(+2)
3
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.08%)
Peoria(0%)
3
(-1)
4
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.03%)
Rockford (-0.05%)
4
(+1)
5
Rockford (-0.03%)
Chicago(-0.08%)
5
(+1)
6
Chicago(-0.1%)
Springfield (-0.09%)
6
(+1)
7
Springfield (-0.17%)
Bloomington-Normal(-0.18%)
7
(+1)
8
Bloomington-Normal(-0.52%)
Metro-East (-0.25%)
8
(-7)
9
Decatur(-0.56%)
Decatur(-0.36%)
9
(+0)
10
Kankakee(-0.96%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.36%)
10
(-7)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Feb 2014
Mar 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.68%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.79%)
1
(+0)
2
Chicago (0.95%)
Kankakee (0.88%)
2
(+2)
3
Springfield (0.01%)
Chicago (0.75%)
3
 (-1)
4
Kankakee (0.00%)
Springfield (0.37%)
4
 (-1)
5
Metro-East (-0.10%)
Metro-East (-0.17%)
5
(+0)
6
Rockford (-0.45%)
Rockford (-0.27%)
6
(+0)
7
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-1.04%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-1.17%)
7
(+0)
8
Decatur (-1.14%)
Peoria (-1.31%)
8
(+1)
9
Peoria (-1.9%)
Decatur (-1.58%)
9
 (-1)
10
Bloomington-Normal (-2.12%)
Bloomington-Normal (-2.01%)
10
(+0)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15