I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
JULY 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois gained 6,000 jobs in June 2014, compared with a 600 job gain in May 2014. Compared to June
2013, Illinois has added 20,100 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of the
labor market, showed a decrease of 700 jobs per month.
The Nation added 298,000 jobs at a rate of 0.22%, compared with a 229,000 job gain in May 2014.
The three-month moving average was up by 277,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 52,200 jobs in June after a 29,600 job gain in May 2014. The three-month moving
average was up by 35,800 jobs per month
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37
times and positive job gains 40 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 174,700 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 228,300 new jobs.
By June 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial
activities and Leisure & hospitality.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.38%, 12.30% and
11.44%, compared to official unemployment rates of 7.1%, 6.1% and 6.2%.
Through June 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.34%, 14.78%, and 27.12%, respectively.
JUNE 2014
Total NonFarm
Employment
July
Positive
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
May 2014– June 2014
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
June 2014
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.22
298,000
1.84
2,510,000
11.44%
RMW*
0.27
52,200
1.35
260,900
12.30%
Illinois
0.10
6,000
0.35
20,100
11.38%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – J U N E 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E J UL 2 0 1 3 – J U N
2014
Jul/13
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13 Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14 Mar/14
Apr/14 May/14 Jun/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector MAY 2014 –JUNE 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation
1.00%
1.50%
RMW
S HA D OW
2.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 155,700 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
June
2014
5,813,200
197,600
568,600
1,164,100
97,300
368,700
891,600
882,400
546,800
251,700
834,500
June
2015 (p)
5,813,300
203,300
554,200
1,165,900
95,600
370,600
885,400
898,000
553,400
251,800
835,200
Number of Jobs
100~ 11,800
5,700
-14,400
1,800
-1,700
1,900
-6,200
15,600
6,600
100
700
Growth Rate
%
0.00%~ 0.20%
2.88%
-2.53%
0.15%
-1.75%
0.52%
-0.70%
1.77%
1.21%
0.04%
0.08%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (-0.22%)
INF (-7.41%)
0.39%~ 0.50%
+
GOV (2.26%)
MAN (-5.09%)
37,300~42,800
0.89%~1.02%
+
EDU (2.66%)
MAN (-2.43%)
182,500
-300~ 600
-0.15%~ 0.46%
-
PRO (2.34%)
INF (-4.59%)
51,000
50,500
-500~-50
-1.04%~-0.09%
-
PRO (3.36%)
INF (-5.32%)
Kankakee
43,800
44,000
200~300
0.35%~ 0.62%
+
EDU (2.18%)
CON (-2.19%)
Peoria
177,900
177,600
-300~900
-0.19 %~ 0.48%
-
TTU (1.65%)
INF (-3.23%)
Rockford
147,700
148,000
300~700
0.20%~0.45%
+
PRO (2.56%)
INF (-9.13%)
Springfield
111,200
111,300
100~300
0.10%~ 0.27%
+
PRO (6.23%)
INF (-12.26%)
May 2014*
May
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
87,600
85,800
-1,800 ~ -1,500
-2.10%~ -1.74%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
105,800
106,200
400~500
Chicago
4,189,200
4,226,600
182,700
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
4000000
180000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
150000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year
2014
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
48000
58000
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
30000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
118000
1990
2012
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- June
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
78,700 jobs/year
118,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
49,200 jobs/year
73,900 jobs/year
In 10 years
39,400 jobs/year
59,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
26,200 jobs/year
39,400 jobs/year
* The figure 621,800 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
466,100. Adding 155,700, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 621,800.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 228,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through June 2014.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –June 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-June
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-June 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-6,300
-9.87%
-600
-0.94%
Manufacturing
-114,500
13,800
12.04%
-600
-0.52%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
43,800
44.83%
45,600
46.67%
Information
-11,300
-7,100
-62.83%
-8,800
-77.88%
Financial activities
-32,700
4,000
12.12%
5,900
17.88%
Professional & business services
-92,700
110,200
119.52%
104,000
112.80%
Education & health
32,200
60,500
-
76,100
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
34,900
156.50%
41,500
186.10%
Other Services
-6,300
-4,300
-72.88%
-4,200
-71.19%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-22,200
-
-21,500
-


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 12.04%, 44.83%, 12.12%, 119.52% and 156.50% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By June 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality
had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information
and Other Services are still negative, namely, -9.87%, -62.83% and 72.88% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU),
Financial activities and Leisure & hospitality.
Information is predicted to continue to lose jobs.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
127.12
(June 2014)
114.78
(June 2014)
110.34
(June 2014)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
June 2014**
105.14%
82.42%
56.65%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
134.22
(May2014)
107.20
(May2014)
111.52
(May 2014)
110.39
(May2014)
94.56
(May2014)
122.14
(May2014)
114.12
(May2014)
109.57
(May2014)
104.81
(May2014)
105.58
(May2014)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
70.81%
45.32%
NA
51.81%
28.32%
25.96%
77.83%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN MAY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) edged up to 102.7 in May from 102.3 in April. The rise is
attributed to an increase in job growth in nonmanufacturing and construction in the Chicago area.

In May, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board announced
that the industrial production index increased 0.5 percent in May after having little changed in April.
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 79.1.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.21 in May
from -0.15 in April, led by a rise in production-, employment- and consumption-related indicators. In the
Chicago region, the employment in manufacturing fell 0.40 percent in May. Nonmanufacturing and
construction employment increased 0.12 and 0.29 percent respectively in May. Retail sales are estimated to
have fallen 1.72 percent in May.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the path to recovery. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 288,000 in June, and
the unemployment rate declined to 6.1 percent. Considering recent national economic conditions and
movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the
next several months.
140
120
4 month
forecast
above
trend
100
102.7
CBAI (Current: 102.7)
trend
1 month 3 month 1 year
80
Historical (ago)
102.3
98.1
106.9
Forecast (ahead)
107.7
106.7
-
below
trend
60
40
20
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
01/14
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (1st to 7th) and Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (4th to 10th)
experienced the deepest fall in May 2014.

Springfield (2nd to 4th), Metro-East (5st to 6th) and Decatur (7th to 9th) also dropped in
terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in May was recorded for Rockford (8th to 1st).

Kankakee (6th to 2nd), Bloomington-Normal 10th to 5th), and Peoria (9th to 8th) also gained in
terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Kankakee (4th to
2nd) and Rockford (6th to 4th).

Downward moves were recorded for Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2nd to 5th) and
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (5th to 6th).

Springfield, Chicago, Metro-East, Decatur, Peoria and Bloomington-Normal remained in
the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal remained in the last place and
Springfield remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
Apr 2014
May 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.42%)
Rockford (0.57%)
1
(+7)
2
Springfield (0.39%)
Kankakee(0.19%)
2
(+4)
3
Chicago(-0.01%)
Chicago(0.16%)
3
(+0)
4
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(-0.13%)
Springfield (0.15%)
4
(-2)
5
Metro-East(-0.19%)
Bloomington-Normal(0.12%)
5
(+5)
6
Kankakee(-0.2%)
Metro-East(-0.04%)
6
(-1)
7
Decatur(-0.2%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.06%)
7
(-6)
8
Rockford (-0.24%)
Peoria(-0.18%)
8
(+1)
9
Peoria(-0.41%)
Decatur(-0.23%)
9
(-2)
10
Bloomington-Normal(-0.61%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(-0.8%)
10
(-6)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
Apr 2014
May 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Springfield (1.84%)
Springfield (1.48%)
1
(+0)
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.19%)
Kankakee (1.17%)
2
(+2)
3
Chicago (0.89%)
Chicago (0.69%)
3
(+0)
4
Kankakee (0.78%)
Rockford (0.49%)
4
(+2)
5
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.2%)
5
 (-3)
6
Rockford (-0.08%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.3%)
6
 (-1)
7
Metro-East (-0.67%)
Metro-East (-0.46%)
7
(+0)
8
Decatur (-1.13%)
Decatur (-1.55%)
8
(+0)
9
Peoria (-1.64%)
Peoria (-1.78%)
9
(+0)
10
Bloomington-Normal (-2.83%)
Bloomington-Normal (-2.68%)
10
(+0)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15