I L L INO I S ECO N OMI C
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
AUGUST 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois gained 10,300 jobs in July 2014, compared with a 7,000 job gain in June 2014. Compared to
July 2013, Illinois has added 35,600 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of
labor market, showed an increase of 6,000 jobs per month.
The Nation added 209,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a 298,000 job gain in June 2014.
The three-month moving average was up by 245,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 21,000 jobs in July after a 47,100 job gain in June 2014. The three-month moving
average was up by 32,600 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37
times and positive job gains 41 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 163,400 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 239,600 new jobs.
By July 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities
(TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.44%, 12.45% and
11.44%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.8%, 6.2% and 6.2%.
Through July 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 10.56%, 14.87%, and 27.31%, respectively.
JULY 2014
Total NonFarm
Employment
August
Positive
E MP LOY M E N T C HA RT
June 2014– July 2014
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
July 2014
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.15
209,000
1.88
2,570,000
11.44%
RMW*
0.11
21,000
1.37
264,500
12.45%
Illinois
0.18
10,300
0.61
35,600
11.44%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – J U LY 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E AU G 2 0 1 3 – J U L
2014
Aug/13
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13 Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14 Mar/14
Apr/14 May/14 Jun/14
Jul/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector JUNE 2014 –JULY 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
Nation
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
RMW
S HA D OW
1.20%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 159,600 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
July
2014
5,824,500
199,600
572,300
1,163,900
96,900
370,100
898,700
884,500
543,300
251,600
833,600
July
2015 (p)
5,863,100
207,500
578,000
1,165,700
95,400
373,800
905,200
899,900
550,300
251,700
835,600
Growth Rate
%
0.66%~ 1.13%
3.96%
1.00%
0.15%
-1.55%
1.00%
0.72%
1.74%
1.29%
0.04%
0.24%
Number of Jobs
38,600~ 65,900
7,900
5,700
1,800
-1,500
3,700
6,500
15,400
7,000
100
2,000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Growth
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-1.81%~ -1.66%
-
GOV (0.12%)
INF (-7.84%)
-100~150
-0.10%~ 0.14%
-
PRO (1.97%)
MAN (-4.97%)
4,191,700
-6,000~16,900
-0.14%~0.40%
-
CON (5.77%)
MAN (-4.01%)
182,900
184,000
1,000~ 1,800
0.57%~ 0.98%
+
PRO (3.16%)
INF (-2.45%)
51,100
50,500
-600~-100
-1.14%~-0.17%
-
PRO (4.56%)
INF (-4.53%)
Kankakee
43,500
43,500
0~100
0.05%~ 0.24%
+
EDU (2.60%)
CON (-3.05%)
Peoria
177,600
177,200
-300~-200
-0.20 %~ -0.10%
-
TTU (1.73%)
INF (-3.00%)
Rockford
147,400
147,900
500~1,000
0.34%~0.68%
+
PRO (2.29%)
FIN (-3.43%)
Springfield
111,600
111,600
0~100
0.01%~ 0.06%
+
PRO (4.98%)
INF (-12.78%)
June 2014*
June
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Bloomington-Normal
87,800
86,300
-1,600 ~ -1,500
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
106,500
106,400
Chicago
4,197,600
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
4000000
180000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
150000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
48000
58000
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
30000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
118000
1990
2012
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- July
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
77,200 jobs/year
119,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
48,300 jobs/year
74,400 jobs/year
In 10 years
38,600 jobs/year
59,500 jobs/year
In 15 years
25,700 jobs/year
39,700 jobs/year
* The figure 625,700 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
466,100. Adding 159,600, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 625,700.
**The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 239,600 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through July 2014.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –July 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-July
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-July 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-4,300
-6.74%
3,600
5.64%
Manufacturing
-114,500
17,500
15.27%
23,200
20.24%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
43,600
44.63%
45,400
46.47%
Information
-11,300
-7,500
-66.37%
-9,000
-79.65%
Financial activities
-32,700
5,400
16.36%
9,100
27.58%
Professional & business services
-92,700
117,300
127.22%
123,800
134.27%
Education & health
32,200
62,600
-
78,000
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
31,400
140.81%
38,400
172.20%
Other Services
-6,300
-4,400
-74.58%
-4,300
-72.88%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-23,100
-
-21,100
-


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 15.27%, 44.63%, 16.36%, 127.22% and 140.81% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By July 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality
had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information
and Other Services are still negative, namely, -6.74%, -66.37% and 74.58% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for Manufacturing, Trade, transportation &
utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services and
Leisure & hospitality.
Information is predicted to continue to lose jobs.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
127.31
(July 2014)
114.87
(July 2014)
110.56
(July 2014)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
July 2014**
107.55%
83.55%
59.45%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
134.60
(June2014)
108.20
(June2014)
111.74
(June 2014)
110.53
(June2014)
94.60
(June2014)
121.20
(June2014)
113.85
(June2014)
109.28
(June2014)
104.97
(June2014)
105.44
(June2014)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
73.43%
47.53%
NA
35.12%
25.37%
23.92%
95.89%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN JUNE
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 108.7 in June from 103.1 in May. The rise is
attributed to an increase in job growth in construction and nonmanufacturing in the Chicago area.

In June, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board announced
that the industrial production index increased 0.4 percent in June after having increased 0.3 percent in May.
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged up 0.1 percentage point to 79.1 in June.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.12 in
June from +0.16 in May, led by a decline in consumption- and housing-related indicators. In the Chicago
region, the employment in manufacturing fell 0.27 percent in June. Nonmanufacturing and construction
employment increased 0.16 and 3.16 percent respectively in June. Retail sales are estimated to have fallen
0.78 percent in June.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the path to recovery. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in July, and
the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent. Considering recent national economic conditions
and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the
next several months.
140
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
108.7
CBAI (Current: 108.7)
trend
100
1 month 3 month 1 year
80
Historical (ago)
103.1
97.5
95.8
Forecast (ahead)
111.5
109.4
-
below
trend
60
40
20
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
01/14
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Rockford (1st to 9th) and Kankakee (2nd to 10th) experienced the deepest fall from 2014
May to June.

Metro-East (6th to 8th) and Chicago (3rd to 4th) also dropped in terms of rank from last
month.

The most remarkable upward moves in June were recorded for Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul
(10th to 1st).

Bloomington-Normal (5th to 2nd), Springfield (4th to 3rd), Decatur (9th to 5th), DavenportRock Island-Moline (7th to 6th) and Peoria (8th to 7th) also gained in terms of rank from last
month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for ChampaignUrbana-Rantoul (5th to 2nd).

Downward moves were recorded for Kankakee (2nd to 4th), Rockford (4th to 5th) and
Decatur (8th to 9th).

Springfield, Chicago, Metro-East, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline and Bloomington-Normal
remained in the same place.

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal remained in the last place and
Springfield remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
May 2014
June 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Rockford (0.57%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.69%)
1
(+9)
2
Kankakee(0.19%)
Bloomington-Normal(0.23%)
2
(+3)
3
Chicago(0.16%)
Springfield (0.21%)
3
(+1)
4
Springfield (0.15%)
Chicago(0.17%)
4
(-1)
5
Bloomington-Normal(0.12%)
Decatur(0.12%)
5
(+4)
6
Metro-East(-0.04%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.1%)
6
(+1)
7
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.06%)
Peoria(-0.18%)
7
(+1)
8
Peoria(-0.18%)
Metro-East(-0.19%)
8
(-2)
9
Decatur(-0.23%)
Rockford (-0.23%)
9
(-8)
10
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(-0.8%)
Kankakee(-0.68%)
10
(-8)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
May 2014
June 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Springfield (1.48%)
Springfield (1.4%)
1
(+0)
2
Kankakee (1.17%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.09%)
2
(+3)
3
Chicago (0.69%)
Chicago (0.76%)
3
(+0)
4
Rockford (0.49%)
Kankakee (0.33%)
4
 (-2)
5
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (-0.2%)
Rockford (0.09%)
5
 (-1)
6
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.3%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.03%)
6
(+0)
7
Metro-East (-0.46%)
Metro-East (-0.6%)
7
(+0)
8
Decatur (-1.55%)
Peoria (-1.41%)
8
(+1)
9
Peoria (-1.78%)
Decatur (-1.54%)
9
 (-1)
10
Bloomington-Normal (-2.68%)
Bloomington-Normal (-1.83%)
10
(+0)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15