I L L INO I S E C O NOM IC
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
SEPTEMBER 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois gained 13,800 jobs in August 2014, compared with a 9,400 job gain in July 2014. Compared to
August 2013, Illinois has added 40,600 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable
measure of labor market, showed an increase of 10,100 jobs per month.
The Nation added 142,000 jobs at a rate of 0.10%, compared with a 212,000 job gain in July 2014.
The three-month moving average was up by 207,000 jobs per month.
The RMW shed 5,400 jobs in August after a 24,700 job gain in July 2014. The three-month moving
average was up by 22,100 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37
times and positive job gains 42 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 150,500 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 252,500 new jobs.
By August 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure &
hospitality and Other Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.57%, 12.42% and
11.50%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.7%, 6.1% and 6.1%.
Through August 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 10.80%, 14.87%, and 27.42%, respectively.
AUGUST 2014
Total NonFarm
Employment
September
Positive
E MP L OY ME N T C HA RT
July 2014– August 2014
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Aug 2014
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.10
142,000
1.82
2,482,000
11.50%
RMW*
-0.03
-5,400
1.13
219,400
12.42%
Illinois
0.24
13,800
0.70
40,600
11.57%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – A U G U S T 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E S E P 2 0 1 3 – AUG 2 0 1 4
Sep/13
Oct/13
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14
May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Aug/14
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector July 2014 –August 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation
S HA D OW
1.00%
RMW
1.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 168,900 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4

Illinois
14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

US
14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
August
2014
5,837,400
202,300
573,300
1,168,300
97,100
368,800
901,100
882,700
550,200
249,300
834,400
August
2015 (p)
5,912,100
213,800
574,700
1,181,800
96,600
372,500
918,500
903,500
559,000
250,600
841,200
Number of Jobs
74,700~ 105,200
11,500
1,400
13,500
-500
3,700
17,400
20,800
8,800
1,300
6,800
Growth Rate
%
1.28%~ 1.80%
5.68%
0.24%
1.16%
-0.51%
1.00%
1.93%
2.36%
1.60%
0.52%
0.81%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (1.40%)
INF (-7.50%)
-0.42%~ -0.02%
-
EDU (2.01%)
MAN (-4.36%)
21,600~47,000
0.51%~1.12%
+
CON (5.36%)
OTH (-1.10%)
183,300
200~ 800
0.10%~ 0.46%
+
PRO (2.88%)
INF (-2.86%)
51,100
50,600
-500~-400
-0.89%~-0.76%
-
PRO (2.72%)
INF (-3.59%)
Kankakee
43,300
43,200
-100~0
-0.24%~ 0.06%
-
EDU (1.70%)
TTU (-2.50%)
Peoria
176,200
175,500
-700~-500
-0.20 %~ -0.10%
-
TTU (1.57%)
FIN (-3.30%)
Rockford
147,100
147,500
400~5000
0.26%~0.34%
+
PRO (2.04%)
INF (-7.77%)
Springfield
111,200
111,600
400~600
0.34%~ 0.51%
+
PRO (10.43%)
INF (-11.78%)
July 2014*
July
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
88,900
87,700
-1,200 ~ -800
-1.31%~ -0.92%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
107,300
106,800
-500~0
Chicago
4,208,900
4,230,500
183,100
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
7
NumberNumber
of Jobs of Jobs
(in thousands)
(in thousands)
95000 62000
90000
Total Non-farm
Employment
Forecast
Total Non-farm
Employment
Forecast
Bloomington
(BN)(DE)
Decatur
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
60000
115000
58000
85000
110000
56000
80000 54000
75000
105000
52000
100000
50000
70000
95000
48000
65000
90000
46000
60000 44000
1990
1990
1992
1992
1994
Number Number
of Jobs of Jobs
(in thousands)
(in thousands)
4400000200000
1994
1996
1996
1998
1998
2000
2000
2002
2002
2004
2004
2006
2006
2008
2008
2010
2010
2012
2012
2014
2014
85000
Year
Year
Total Non-farm
Employment
Forecast
Total Non-farm
Employment
Forecast
ChicagoPeoria
(CHI) (PE)
1990
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
190000
4200000
190000
180000
185000
4000000
170000
180000
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
175000
3800000160000
170000
150000
3600000
165000
140000
160000
3400000
130000
155000
3200000120000 1990
1990
1992
1992
1994
1994
1996
1996
1998
1998
2000
2000
2002
2002
2004
2004
2006
2006
2008
2008
2010
2010
2012
2012
2014
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
150000
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
8
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
46000
44000
42000
40000
38000
36000
34000
32000
30000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
160000
155000
150000
145000
140000
135000
130000
125000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
9
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- August
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
76,500 jobs/year
121,000 jobs/year
In 8 years
47,800 jobs/year
75,600 jobs/year
In 10 years
38,300 jobs/year
60,500 jobs/year
In 15 years
25,600 jobs/year
40,300 jobs/year
* The figure 635,000 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
466,100. Adding 168,900, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 635,000.
** The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 252,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through August 2014.
10
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –August 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Aug
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Aug 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-1,600
-2.51%
9,900
15.52%
Manufacturing
-114,500
18,400
16.07%
19,800
17.29%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
47,400
48.82%
60,900
62.72%
Information
-11,300
-7,300
-64.60%
-7,800
-69.03%
Financial activities
-32,700
3,800
11.62%
7,500
22.94%
Professional & business services
-92,700
120,200
129.67%
137,600
148.44%
Education & health
32,200
61,200
-
82,000
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
38,300
171.75%
47,100
211.21%
Other Services
-6,300
-6,700
-113.56%
-5,400
-91.53%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-21,900
-
-15,100
-


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 16.07%, 48.82%, 11.62%, 129.67% and 171.75% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By August 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information
and Other Services are still negative, namely, -2.51%, -64.60% and 113.56% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional &
business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
Information is predicted to continue to lose jobs.
11
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
127.46
(August 2014)
114.87
(August 2014)
110.80
(August 2014)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
August 2014**
112.41%
84.05%
62.72%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
135.60
(July 2014)
108.62
(July 2014)
112.06
(July 2014)
110.27
(July2014)
94.54
(July 2014)
120.33
(July 2014)
113.10
(July 2014)
108.76
(July 2014)
104.71
(July 2014)
105.24
(July 2014)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
77.30%
43.49%
NA
19.67%
17.08%
20.19%
67.70%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
12
CBAI DECREASED IN JULY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 102.2 in July from 106.9 in June. The fall is
attributed to a decrease in job growth in construction in the Chicago area.

In July, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board announced
that the industrial production index increased 0.4 percent in July after having increased 0.4 percent in June.
Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged up 0.1 percentage point to 79.2 in July.

The Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.39 in July
from +0.21 in June, led by a rise in production, employment and sales. In the Chicago region, the
employment in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing rose 0.92 percent and 0.11 percent in July,
respectively. Construction employment decreased 0.14 percent in July. Retail sales are estimated to have
risen 1.40 percent in July.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the path to recovery. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 142,000 in August,
and the unemployment rate had little change at 6.1 percent. Considering recent national economic
conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery
trend over the next several months.
140
CBAI (Current: 102.2)
4 month
forecast
above
trend
120
102.2
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
106.9
100.7
trend
100
89.9
80
Forecast (ahead)
98.4
97.9
110.3
below
trend
60
40
20
01/07
01/08
01/09
01/10
01/11
01/12
01/13
01/14
13
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Springfield (3rd to 8th) experienced the deepest fall from 2014 June to July.

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1st to 2nd) and Peoria (7th to 10th) also dropped in terms of
rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward moves in July were recorded for Davenport-Rock IslandMoline (6th to 4th), Metro-East (8th to 6th) and Rockford (9th to 7th).

Bloomington-Normal (2nd to 1st), Chicago (4th to 3rd) and Kankakee (10th to 9th) also gained
in terms of rank from last month.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for ChampaignUrbana-Rantoul (2nd to 1st), Chicago (3rd to 2nd), Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (6th to
3rd), Rockford (5th to 4th), Decatur (9th to 6th) and Bloomington-Normal (10th to 8th).

Downward moves were recorded for Springfield (1st to 5th), Kankakee (4th to 7th), MetroEast (7th to 9th) and Peoria (8th to 10th).

In the 12 months growth league table, Peoria dropped to the last place and ChampaignUrbana-Rantoul climbed to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
14
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
June 2014
July 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.69%)
Bloomington-Normal(1.1%)
1
(+1)
2
Bloomington-Normal(0.23%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.51%)
2
(-1)
3
Springfield (0.21%)
Chicago(0.24%)
3
(+1)
4
Chicago(0.17%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.05%)
4
(+2)
5
Decatur(0.12%)
Decatur(-0.04%)
5
(+0)
6
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.1%)
Metro-East(-0.14%)
6
(+2)
7
Peoria(-0.18%)
Rockford (-0.15%)
7
(+2)
8
Metro-East(-0.19%)
Springfield (-0.32%)
8
(-5)
9
Rockford (-0.23%)
Kankakee(-0.37%)
9
(+1)
10
Kankakee(-0.68%)
Peoria(-0.71%)
10
(-3)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
June 2014
July 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Springfield (1.4%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.98%)
1
(+1)
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.09%)
Chicago (1.05%)
2
(+1)
3
Chicago (0.76%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.27%)
3
(+3)
4
Kankakee (0.33%)
Rockford (0.21%)
4
(+1)
5
Rockford (0.09%)
Springfield (-0.04%)
5
 (-4)
6
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.03%)
Decatur (-0.5%)
6
(+3)
7
Metro-East (-0.6%)
Kankakee (-0.61%)
7
 (-3)
8
Peoria (-1.41%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.66%)
8
(+2)
9
Decatur (-1.54%)
Metro-East (-0.91%)
9
 (-2)
10
Bloomington-Normal (-1.83%)
Peoria (-1.55%)
10
 (-2)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
15
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
16