I L L INO I S E C O NOM IC
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
OCTOBER 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois gained 19,300 jobs in September 2014, compared with a 20,700 job gain in August 2014.
Compared to September 2013, Illinois has added 69,000 jobs. The three-month moving average, a
more stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 16,500 jobs per month.
The Nation added 248,000 jobs at a rate of 0.18%, compared with an 180,000 job gain in August
2014. The three-month moving average was up by 223,700 jobs per month.
The RMW added 14,700 jobs in September after a 1,900 job gain in August 2014. The three-month
moving average was up by 13,800 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 37
times and positive job gains 43 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 124,300 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 279,400 new jobs.
By September 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Trade, transportation & utilities
(TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other
Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.45%, 12.21% and
11.44%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.6%, 6.0% and 6.0%.
Through September 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 11.30%, 15.00%, and 27.75%, respectively.
SEPTEMBER 2014
Total NonFarm
Employment
October
Positive
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
Aug 2014– Sep 2014
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Sep 2014
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.18
248,000
1.93
2,635,000
11.44%
RMW*
0.07
14,700
1.25
242,600
12.21%
Illinois
0.33
19,300
1.19
69,000
11.45%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – S E P T E M B E R 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E OC T 2 0 1 3 – S E P 2 0 1 4
Oct/13
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14
May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
Aug/14
0.50%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Sep/14
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Aug 2014 –Sep 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
Nation
S HA D OW
1.50%
2.00%
RMW
2.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 160,800 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4

Illinois
14%
Unemployment Rate
12%
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

US
14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
September
2014
5,863,600
203,600
572,000
1,175,500
September
2015 (p)
5,923,400
204,000
569,500
1,189,300
59,800~ 74,600
400
-2,500
13,800
Growth Rate
%
1.02%~ 1.27%
0.20%
-0.44%
1.17%
97,900
96,800
-1,100
-1.12%
370,400
910,500
884,200
548,400
256,000
835,100
370,800
939,700
899,200
557,300
259,900
836,800
400
29,200
15,000
8,900
3,900
1,700
0.11%
3.21%
1.70%
1.62%
1.52%
0.20%
Number of Jobs
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (1.97%)
INF (-8.14%)
0.24%~ 0.57%
+
EDU (1.16%)
MAN (-4.00%)
28,700~47,100
0.68%~1.12%
+
CON (6.09%)
OTH (-0.94%)
183,700
1,000~ 1,600
0.60%~ 0.88%
+
PRO (2.74%)
INF (-0.71%)
51,100
50,700
-400~-370
-0.88%~-0.73%
-
PRO (3.79%)
INF (-5.30%)
Kankakee
43,300
43,100
-200~-100
-0.46%~ -0.20%
-
EDU (1.73%)
CON (-3.45%)
Peoria
175,800
175,300
-500~-300
-0.27 %~ -0.17%
-
TTU (2.74%)
EDU (-3.70%)
Rockford
147,100
147,400
200~400
0.16%~0.25%
+
PRO (2.26%)
INF (-7.25%)
Springfield
112,000
112,000
0~200
-0.02%~ 0.17%
-
EDU (1.20%)
INF (-5.69%)
Aug 2014*
Aug
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
88,800
87,900
-900 ~ -500
-0.97%~ -0.55%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
107,600
107,900
300~600
Chicago
4,211,700
4,240,500
182,700
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
4000000
180000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
150000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
2014
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
48000
58000
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
30000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
145000
160000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Year
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- September
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
69,600 jobs/year
119,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
43,500 jobs/year
74,600 jobs/year
In 10 years
34,800 jobs/year
59,700 jobs/year
In 15 years
23,200 jobs/year
39,800 jobs/year
* The figure 626,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
466,100. Adding 160,800, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 626,900.
** The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 278,700 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through September 2014.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –September 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Sep
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Sep 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-300
-0.47%
100
0.16%
Manufacturing
-114,500
17,100
14.93%
14,600
12.75%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
54,600
56.23%
68,400
70.44%
Information
-11,300
-6,500
-57.52%
-7,600
-67.26%
Financial activities
-32,700
5,400
16.51%
5,800
17.74%
Professional & business services
-92,700
129,600
139.81%
158,800
171.31%
Education & health
32,200
62,700
-
77,700
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
36,500
163.68%
45,400
203.59%
Other Services
-6,300
0
0.00%
3,900
66.10%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-21,200
-
-19,500
-


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 14.93%, 56.23%, 16.51%, 139.81% and 163.68% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By September 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction and
Information are still negative, namely, -0.47% and -57.52% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for Construction, Trade, transportation &
utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services,
Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
Manufacturing and Information are predicted to lose jobs.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
127.75
(Sep2014)
115.00
(Sep2014)
111.30
(Sep2014)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
September 2014**
116.07%
85.60%
69.21%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
135.94
(Aug 2014)
109.07
(Aug 2014)
112.08
(Aug 2014)
110.32
(Aug2014)
94.72
(Aug 2014)
120.88
(Aug 2014)
112.74
(Aug 2014)
109.15
(Aug 2014)
105.33
(Aug 2014)
105.30
(Aug 2014)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
77.60%
44.39%
NA
29.37%
13.11%
22.99%
135.48%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN AUGUST
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 98.7 in August from 103.0 in July. The fall is
attributed to a decrease in job growth in the nonmanufacturing sector and to a fall in retail activity in the
Chicago area.

In August, the national and regional economies shared negative features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that the industrial production index decreased 0.1 percent in August after having increased 0.2
percent in July.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.3 percentage points to 78.8 in August. The Chicago Fed
reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to -0.21 in August from +0.26 in
July, led by a fall in production- and employment-related indicators. In the Chicago region, the employment
in manufacturing and construction rose 0.08 percent and 0.8 percent respectively in August. The
employment in nonmanufacturing fell 0.02 percent. Retail sales are estimated to have fallen 0.12 percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the path to recovery. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000 in August,
and the unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent. Considering recent national economic conditions and
movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the
next several months.
CBAI (Current: 98.7)
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
103.0
102.2
91.6
Forecast (ahead)
98.9
92.1
97.9
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Chicago (3rd to 9th) experienced the deepest fall from 2014 July to August.

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2nd to 3rd), Bloomington-Normal (1st to 5th), Decatur (5th to
6th), Metro-East (6th to 7th) and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (4th to 8th) also dropped
in terms of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward moves in August were recorded for Springfield (8th to 1st)
and Kankakee (9th to 2th).

Peoria remained in the last place in August.

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Springfield (5th to
2nd), Metro-East (9th to 7th), and Peoria (10th to 9th).

Downward moves were recorded for Chicago (2nd to 3th), Davenport-Rock Island-Moline
(3th to 5th), Kankakee (7th to 8th) and Bloomington-Normal (8th to 10th).

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal dropped to the last place and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
July 2014
August 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Bloomington-Normal(1.1%)
Springfield (0.59%)
1
(+7)
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.51%)
Kankakee(0.45%)
2
(+7)
3
Chicago(0.24%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.41%)
3
(-1)
4
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.05%)
Rockford (0.36%)
4
(+3)
5
Decatur(-0.04%)
Bloomington-Normal(0.25%)
5
(-4)
6
Metro-East(-0.14%)
Decatur(0.19%)
6
(-1)
7
Rockford (-0.15%)
Metro-East(0.06%)
7
(-1)
8
Springfield (-0.32%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.05%)
8
(-4)
9
Kankakee(-0.37%)
Chicago(0.02%)
9
(-6)
10
Peoria(-0.71%)
Peoria(-0.32%)
10
(+0)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
July 2014
August 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.98%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.79%)
1
(+0)
2
Chicago (1.05%)
Springfield (1.08%)
2
(+3)
3
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.27%)
Chicago (0.9%)
3
 (-1)
4
Rockford (0.21%)
Rockford (0.11%)
4
(+0)
5
Springfield (-0.04%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.04%)
5
 (-2)
6
Decatur (-0.5%)
Decatur (-0.23%)
6
(+0)
7
Kankakee (-0.61%)
Metro-East (-0.73%)
7
(+2)
8
Bloomington-Normal (-0.66%)
Kankakee (-0.93%)
8
 (-1)
9
Metro-East (-0.91%)
Peoria (-1.8%)
9
(+1)
10
Peoria (-1.55%)
Bloomington-Normal (-1.81%)
10
 (-2)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15