I L L INO I S E C O NOM IC
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
NOVEMBER 2014
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois lost 2,200 jobs in October 2014, compared with a 14,000 job gain in September 2014.
Compared to October 2013, Illinois has added 39,200 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more
stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 10,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 243,000 jobs at a rate of 0.17%, compared with a 271,000 job gain in September
2014. The three-month moving average was up by 239,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 32,000 jobs in October after an 18,100 job gain in September 2014. The threemonth moving average was up by 17,300 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 38
times and positive job gains 43 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 131,800 jobs
since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 271,900 new jobs.
By October 2014 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts also
show that the future recovery rates will increase for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional & business services, Leisure &
hospitality and Other Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.06%, 11.85% and
11.10%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.6%, 5.8% and 5.8%.
Through October 2014, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 11.16%, 15.20%, and 28.02%, respectively.
OCTOBER 2014
Total NonFarm
Employment
November
Negative
E M P LOY ME N T C HA RT
Sep 2014– Oct 2014
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Oct 2014
Shadow
U.R. **
Nation
0.17
243,000
1.96
2,687,000
11.10%
RMW*
0.16
32,000
1.13
219,700
11.85%
Illinois
-0.04
-2,200
0.67
39,200
11.06%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – O C TO B E R 2014
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
IL
RMW
National
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E NOV 2 0 1 3 – OC T 2 0 1 4
Nov/13
Dec/13
Jan/14
Feb/14
Mar/14
Apr/14 May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
Aug/14
Sep/14
0.40%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
-0.40%
3
Oct/14
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Sep 2014 –Oct 2014
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.40%
-1.20%
-1.00%
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
Nation
S HA D OW
0.00%
0.20%
RMW
0.40%
0.60%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 134,000 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4

Illinois
14%
Unemployment Rate
12%
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

US
14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
October
2014
5,856,100
203,300
573,400
1,171,000
October
2015 (p)
5,913,300
204,200
574,200
1,177,300
96,400
96,200
-200
-0.21%
368,300
909,500
888,900
548,800
255,000
831,600
370,400
939,200
906,900
558,400
256,200
830,300
2,100
29,700
18,000
9,600
1,200
-1,300
0.57%
3.27%
2.02%
1.75%
0.47%
-0.16%
Number of Jobs
57,200~ 64,900
900
800
6,300
Growth Rate
%
0.98%~ 1.11%
0.44%
0.14%
0.54%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
-
LEI (1.88%)
INF (-9.91%)
0.28%~ 0.66%
+
EDU (3.66%)
CON (-3.11%)
30,700~35,400
0.73%~0.84%
+
CON (5.01%)
OTH (-1.27%)
181,100
-700~ 200
-0.40%~ 0.10%
-
PRO (1.61%)
INF (-2.87%)
51,100
50,700
-400~-370
-0.78%~-0.13%
-
PRO (5.64%)
INF (-6.18%)
Kankakee
44,100
44,000
-100~-60
-0.25%~ -0.13%
-
OTH (1.76%)
GOV (-1.59%)
Peoria
177,100
179,400
2,300~3,900
1.28 %~ 2.22%
+
PRO (6.34%)
INF (-3.30%)
Rockford
147,200
147,300
100~200
0.06%~0.16%
+
PRO (1.80%)
FIN (-3.93%)
Springfield
112,800
112,300
-500~-100
-0.45%~ -0.06%
-
EDU (1.06%)
INF (-2.81%)
Sep 2014*
Sep
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
Bloomington-Normal
88,600
88,000
-600 ~ -300
-0.70%~ -0.39%
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
108,200
108,500
300~700
Chicago
4,218,700
4,249,300
181,900
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
85000
2014
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2010
2012
2014
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4200000
185000
4000000
180000
175000
3800000
170000
3600000
165000
160000
3400000
155000
3200000
150000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
Year
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
48000
58000
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
30000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
145000
160000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2014- October
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
65,800 jobs/year
113,900 jobs/year
In 8 years
41,100 jobs/year
71,200 jobs/year
In 10 years
32,900 jobs/year
57,000 jobs/year
In 15 years
21,900 jobs/year
38,000 jobs/year
* The figure 600,100 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
466,100. Adding 134,000, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 600,100.
** The figure 30,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 271,200 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through October 2014.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –October 2014
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Oct
2014
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Oct 2015
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
-600
-0.94%
300
0.47%
Manufacturing
-114,500
18,500
16.16%
19,300
16.86%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,100
50,100
51.60%
56,400
58.08%
Information
-11,300
-8,000
-70.80%
-8,200
-72.57%
Financial activities
-32,700
3,300
10.09%
5,400
16.51%
Professional & business services
-92,700
128,600
138.73%
158,300
170.77%
Education & health
32,200
67,400
-
85,400
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
36,900
165.47%
46,500
208.52%
Other Services
-6,300
-1,000
-16.95%
200
3.39%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
5,600
-24,700
-
-26,000
-


Recovery by
Sector




During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed.
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 16.16%, 51.60%, 10.09%, 138.73% and 165.47% respectively,
from the jobs lost during the recession.
By October 2014, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Construction, Information
and Other Services are still negative, namely, -0.94%,-70.80% and 16.95% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates will increase for Construction, Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities (TTU), Financial activities, Professional &
business services, Leisure & hospitality and Other Services.
Information is predicted to lose jobs.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
128.02
(Oct2014)
115.20
(Oct2014)
111.16
(Oct2014)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
October 2014**
119.40%
88.09%
67.35%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
135.62
(Sep 2014)
109.09
(Sep 2014)
112.19
(Sep 2014)
109.76
(Sep2014)
94.61
(Sep 2014)
122.67
(Sep 2014)
113.45
(Sep 2014)
109.11
(Sep 2014)
104.29
(Sep 2014)
105.75
(Sep 2014)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
78.93%
35.67%
NA
61.14%
20.93%
22.74%
21.91%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN SEPTEMBER
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 104.7 in September from 97.7 in July. The rise is
attributed to positive job growth in the nonmanufacturing and construction sectors and to an improvement in
retail activity in the Chicago area.

In September, the national and regional economies shared positive features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that the industrial production index increased 0.1 percent in September after having decreased
0.2 percent in August.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.6 percentage points to 79.3 in September. The Chicago
Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.47 in September from -0.25
in August, led by a rise in production- and employment-related indicators. In the Chicago region, the
employment in manufacturing fell 0.51 percent in September. The employment in nonmanufacturing and
construction increased 0.22 percent and 0.25 percent respectively. Retail sales are estimated to have risen
1.24 percent in September.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the path to recovery. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was slightly above its historical trend.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000 and the
unemployment rate declined to 5.8 percent in October. Considering recent national economic conditions and
movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the
next several months.
CBAI (Current: 104.7)
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
97.7
107.5
98.2
Forecast (ahead)
103.0
96.3
109.2
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Bloomington-Normal (5th to 9th) experienced the deepest fall in September 2014.

Springfield (1st to 2nd), Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (3rd to 4th), Rockford (4th to 7th),
Decatur (6th to 8th) and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (8th to 10th) also dropped in terms
of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward moves in September were recorded for Peoria (10th to 7th).

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Kankakee (8th to 3rd)
and Decatur (6th to 5th).

Downward moves were recorded for Chicago (3th to 4th), Rockford (4th to 6th) and
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (5th to 8th).

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal remained in the last place and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
August 2014
September 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Springfield (0.59%)
Kankakee(1.64%)
1
(+1)
2
Kankakee(0.45%)
Springfield (0.75%)
2
(-1)
3
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.41%)
Peoria(0.7%)
3
(+7)
4
Rockford (0.36%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.42%)
4
(-1)
5
Bloomington-Normal(0.25%)
Metro-East(0.36%)
5
(+2)
6
Decatur(0.19%)
Chicago(0.18%)
6
(+3)
7
Metro-East(0.06%)
Rockford (-0.02%)
7
(-3)
8
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.05%)
Decatur(-0.11%)
8
(-2)
9
Chicago(0.02%)
Bloomington-Normal(-0.14%)
9
(-4)
10
Peoria(-0.32%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.37%)
10
(-2)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
August 2014
September 2014
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.79%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2.2%)
1
(+0)
2
Springfield (1.08%)
Springfield (1.87%)
2
(+0)
3
Chicago (0.9%)
Kankakee (1.34%)
3
(+5)
4
Rockford (0.11%)
Chicago (1.06%)
4
 (-1)
5
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.04%)
Decatur (0.17%)
5
(+1)
6
Decatur (-0.23%)
Rockford (0.16%)
6
 (-2)
7
Metro-East (-0.73%)
Metro-East (-0.25%)
7
(+0)
8
Kankakee (-0.93%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.47%)
8
 (-3)
9
Peoria (-1.8%)
Peoria (-0.6%)
9
(+0)
10
Bloomington-Normal (-1.81%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.75%)
10
(+0)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15