The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
FEBRUARY 2015

EMP LOY ME NT DA TA SUMM ARY
 Illinois lost 7,100 jobs in January 2015, compared with a 15,500 job gain in December 2014.
Compared to January 2014, Illinois has added 65,000 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 4,300 jobs per month.
 The Nation added 239,000 jobs at a rate of 0.17%, compared with a 329,000 job gain in December
2014. The three-month moving average was up by 330,300 jobs per month.
 The RMW added 72,800 jobs in January after a 31,500 job gain in December 2014. The three-month moving average was up by 49,200 jobs per month.
 Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 39 times and positive job gains 45 times. Illinois now has a net loss of 88,000 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
 Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 315,000 new jobs.
 By January 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for every sector except Information.
 The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.60%, 11.05% and
10.93%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.2%, 5.5% and 5.7%.
 Through January 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 11.99%, 16.13%, and 29.03%, respectively.
E MP LOY MEN T C HA RT
Total Non-
Farm
Employment
Dec 2014– Jan 2015
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
0.17
0.37
239,000
72,800
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
2.32
1.92
3,189,000
373,100
Jan 2015
Shadow
U.R. **
10.93%
11.05%
-0.12 -7,100 1.11 65,000 10.60%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

135.00
T OTAL N O N FA RM E M PLOYME NT GROWTH R AT E J AN 1990 –J ANUA RY 2015
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National RMW IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LAST 12 MONTHS TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROW TH RATE FEB 2014 –JAN 2014
Feb/14 Mar/14 Apr/14 May/14 Jun/14 Jul/14 Aug/14 Sep/14 Oct/14 Nov/14 Dec/14 Jan/15
0.40%
Nation RMW IL
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Dec 2014 –Jan 2015
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
-1.50% -1.00% -0.50%
Nation
0.00% 0.50%
RMW
1.00%
IL
80 Other Services
1.50%
90 Government
HA DOW UN E MPLOY MEN T
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
 In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
 For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
 In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
 The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
 After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006 when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
 To bring the two together a further 102,500 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.


14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate

E
F
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
January
2015
5,899,900
207,400
578,900
1,178,500
98,500
368,200
918,700
896,400
563,000
251,900
828,500
January
2016 (p)
Number of Jobs
5,950,000 50,100~ 54,400
219,200 11,800
582,000
1,180,600
98,300
3,100
2,100
-200
369,300
920,700
917,200
574,300
253,600
834,700
1,100
2,000
20,800
11,300
1,700
6,200
Growth Rate
%
0.85%~ 0.92%
5.69%
0.54%
0.18%
-0.20%
0.30%
0.22%
2.32%
2.01%
0.67%
0.75%
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.

MSAs
Dec 2014*
Bloomington-Normal
Champaign-Urbana-
Rantoul
Chicago
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
87,800
108,100
4,227,000
181,800
51,400
43,700
176,400
148,200
Springfield 111,000
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
95000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Dec
2015
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growth
87,100 -700 ~ -600 -0.85%~ -0.74% -
108,300 200~300 0.17%~ 0.25%
4,207,300 -19,700~-,1100 -0.47%~-0.03%
180,900
51,000
44,000
177,300
149,400
110,900
-900~ -870
-400~-200
300~500
800~1,900
1,300~1,800
-100~0
-0.51%~ -0.48%
-0.82%~-0.45%
0.77%~ 1.14%
0.47 %~ 1.10% +
0.87%~1.18% +
-0.09%~ 0.00% -
-
-
+
+
-
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
LEI (1.24%)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
INF (-10.18%)
FIN (0.86%) LEI (-3.31%)
CON (1.23%) INF (-2.57%)
EDU (1.23%) PRO (-3.04%)
PRO (1.36%) INF (-5.74%)
PRO (2.52%) CON (-2.08%)
TTU (3.11%) PRO (-3.64%)
LEI (2.04%) FIN (-3.10%)
EDU (1.11%) CON (-3.67%)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
90000
115000
85000
110000
80000
105000
75000
100000
70000
95000
65000
90000
60000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
85000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4400000
4200000
4000000
3800000
3600000
3400000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
190000
185000
180000
175000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
170000
165000
160000
155000
150000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
3200000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year Year

Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
60000
58000
56000
54000
52000
50000
48000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
46000
44000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
190000
180000
170000
160000
150000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
140000
130000
120000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
1990 1992 1994
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
42000
40000
38000
36000
34000
32000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
48000
46000
44000
30000
1990 1992 1994
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
165000
160000
155000
150000
145000
140000
135000
130000
125000
120000
1990 1992 1994 1996
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year
Year
Year

At the point of
2015- January
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years 51,900 jobs/year 109,400 jobs/year
In 8 years 32,500 jobs/year 68,400 jobs/year
In 10 years 26,000 jobs/year 54,700 jobs/year
In 15 years 17,300 jobs/year 36,500 jobs/year
* The figure 574,600 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
472,100. Adding 102,500, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 574,600.
** The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 315,000 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through January 2015.

I
J
R
S
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –January 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Jan
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Jan 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-63,800
-114,600
-97,700
3,500
24,100
58,200
5.49%
21.03%
59.57%
15,300
27,100
59,700
23.98%
23.65%
61.11%
Information
Financial activities
-11,300
-33,000
-5,900
3,500
-52.21%
10.61%
-6,100
4,300
-53.98%
13.03%
Professional & business services -92,200 137,300 148.92% 139,300 151.08%
Education & health 32,600 74,500 - 95,300
Leisure & hospitality -22,300 51,100 229.15% 62,400 279.82%
Other Services -5,900 -4,100 -69.49% -2,400
Government 6,000 -28,200 - -21,600
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
Recovery by
Sector
 During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
 Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction,
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 5.49%, 21.03%, 59.57%, 10.61%, 148.92% and 229.15% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
 By January 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
 However, recovery rates for sectors such as Information and Other
Services are still negative, namely -52.51% and -69.49% respectively.
 The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for every sector except Information.
 Information is predicted to lose jobs.
-40.68%
-
-

C
S
*
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
129.03
(Jan2015)
116.13
(Jan2015)
111.99
(Jan2015)
Metro Areas***:
131.84
(Dec 2014)
109.09
(Dec 2014)
112.13
(Dec 2014)
110.95
(Dec 2014)
94.90
(Dec 2014)
125.16
(Dec 2014)
114.68
(Dec 2014)
112.21
(Dec 2014)
106.11
(Dec 2014)
105.44
(Dec 2014)
Positive growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative growth
Positive growth
Positive growth
Negative growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive growth
Positive
growth
Negative growth
**
128.63%
98.88%
78.16%
NA
NA
95.56%
53.47%
NA
108.99%
28.14%
44.88%
166.15%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak at February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.

This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 89.9 in December from 92.5 in November. The fall is attributed to negative job growth in the construction sector in the Chicago area.

In December, the national and regional economies shared negative features. The Federal Reserve Board announced that the industrial production index decreased 0.3 percent in December after having risen 1.1 percent in November.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.4 percentage points to 79.4 in December. The Chicago
Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to +0.39 in December from +0.54 in November, led by a fall in production- and consumption-related indicators. In the Chicago region, employment in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing rose 0.05 percent and 0.14 percent, respectively, in December. Employment in construction decreased 0.44 percent. Retail sales are estimated to have increased 0.29 percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the path to recovery. The economic growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity was above its historical trend. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 257,000 and the unemployment rate was little changed to 5.7 percent in January. Considering recent national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the next several months.
CBAI (Current: 89.9)
Historical (ago)
1 month 3 month 1 year
92.5 103.2 102.8
Forecast (ahead) 99.1 97.4 -

 Rockford (1st to 7th) experienced the deepest fall in December 2014.
 Springfield (4th to 5th), Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (3rd to 6th), Kankakee (7th to 9th) and Peoria (9th to 10th) also dropped in terms of rank from last month.
 The most remarkable upward move in December was recorded for Champaign-Urbana-
Rantoul (8th to 1st).
 In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Chicago (3rd to 2nd),
Springfield (5th to 4th), Metro-East (6th to 5th), Decatur (7h to 6th), and Bloomington-Normal
(10th to 9th).
 In the 12 months growth league table, downward moves were recorded for Rockford (2nd to
3rd), Kankakee (4th to 7th) and Peoria (9th to 10th).
 In the 12 months growth league table, Peoria dropped to the last place and Champaign-Urbana-
Rantoul remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.

MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank November 2014
Rockford (0.25%)
1
2
Decatur(0.21%)
3
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.16%)
4
Springfield (-0.03%)
5
Chicago(-0.03%)
6
Metro-East(-0.05%)
7
3
Kankakee(-0.26%)
8
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(-0.31%)
9
Peoria(-0.34%)
10
Rank
1
Bloomington-Normal(-0.57%)
Growth over last 12-months:
November 2014
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.89%)
Rockford (0.77%)
Chicago (0.76%)
4
Kankakee (0.21%)
5
Springfield (-0.2%)
6
Metro-East (-0.24%)
7
Decatur (-0.38%)
8
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.48%)
9
Peoria (-0.64%)
10
Bloomington-Normal (-1.11%)
December 2014
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.26%)
Decatur(0.26%)
Metro-East(0.16%)
Chicago(0.14%)
Springfield (0.11%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.06%)
Rockford (-0.11%)
Bloomington-Normal(-0.22%)
Kankakee(-0.37%)
Peoria(-0.73%)
December 2014
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.44%)
Chicago (0.94%)
Rockford (0.59%)
Springfield (0.09%)
Metro-East (0.08%)
Decatur (0.01%)
Kankakee (-0.46%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.7%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.99%)
Peoria (-1.03%)
Rank Change**
1
2
3
 (+7)
 (+0)
 (+3)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
 (+1)
 (-1)
 (-3)
 (-6)
 (+2)
 (-2)
 (-1)
Rank Change**
1
2

(+0)
 (+1)
3
4
5
6
 (-1)
 (+1)
 (+1)
 (+1)
7
8
9
10
 (-3)

(+0)
 (+1)
 (-1)
* MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.

25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
40,000
Initial Claims (IL)
35,000
Initial Claims (US)
30,000
`
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0