I L L INO I S E C O NOM IC
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
APRIL 2015
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY

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
Illinois shed 1,800 jobs in March 2015, compared with a 14,900 job gain in February 2015. Compared
to March 2014, Illinois has added 71,600 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable
measure of labor market, showed an increase of 2,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 126,000 jobs at a rate of 0.09%, compared with a 264,000 job gain in February
2015. The three-month moving average was up by 197,000 jobs per month.
The Rest of the Midwest (RMW) shed 12,500 jobs in March after a 37,700 job gain in February 2015.
The three-month moving average was up by 28,500 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 40
times and positive job gains 46 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 72,600 jobs since
the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 330,400 new jobs.
By March 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts
show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing,
Information and Financial Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.81%, 10.97% and
10.98%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.0%, 5.2% and 5.5%.
Through March 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 12.28%, 16.21%, and 29.35%, respectively.
MARCH 2015
E MP L OY ME N T C HA RT
April
Total NonFarm
Employment
Growth
Rate %
2015
Nation
0.09
126,000
2.27 3,128,000
10.98%
Negative
RMW*
-0.06
-12,500
1.70
332,700
10.97%
Illinois
-0.03
-1,800
1.23
71,600
10.81%
Feb 2015– Mar 2015
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
Mar 2015
Shadow
U.R. **
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – M A RC H 2015
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
IL
RMW
National
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E A P R 2 0 1 4 – M A R 2 0 1 5
Apr/14
May/14
Jun/14
Jul/14
Aug/14
Sep/14
Oct/14
Nov/14
Dec/14
Jan/15
Feb/15
0.35%
Nation
RMW
IL
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.10%
-0.15%
3
Mar/15
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Feb 2015 –Mar 2015
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
Nation
S HA D OW
1.50%
RMW
2.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 116,500 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4

Illinois
14%
Unemployment Rate
12%
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

US
14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
March
2015
5,915,300
213,700
577,500
1,188,300
March
2016 (p)
5,975,000
224,000
577,100
1,203,800
98,700
98,600
-100
-0.10%
366,300
927,100
896,800
559,500
250,300
827,300
364,200
940,600
915,900
570,300
251,000
829,700
-2,100
13,500
19,100
10,800
700
2,400
-0.57%
1.46%
2.13%
1.93%
0.28%
0.29%
Number of Jobs
59,700~66,000
10,300
-400
15,500
Growth Rate
%
1.01%~ 1.12%
4.82%
-0.07%
1.30%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Growth
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
0.99%~ 2.02%
+
GOV(3.92%)
INF (-7.31%)
200~250
0.20%~ 0.23%
+
EDU (2.39%)
MAN (-2.65%)
4,071,100
52,700~89,000
1.31%~2.21%
+
PRO (3.38%)
MAN (-0.50%)
183,200
183,500
300~ 1,100
0.15%~ 0.61%
+
EDU (2.55%)
PRO (-5.60%)
50,700
50,400
-300~-100
-0.57%~-0.27%
-
EDU (1.05%)
INF (-5.86%)
Kankakee
45,000
44,700
-200~130
-0.48%~ 0.29%
-
INF (3.97%)
CON (-4.13%)
Peoria
177,500
177,200
-300~500
-0.14 %~ 0.26%
-
TTU (2.30%)
FIN (-4.75%)
Rockford
151,500
152,100
600~1,000
0.41%~0.67%
+
MAN (2.60%)
CON (-5.69%)
Springfield
112,100
111,000
0~100
0.01%~ 0.06%
+
PRO (2.69%)
MAN (-4.27%)
Feb 2015*
Feb
2016
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Bloomington-Normal
94,300
95,300
900 ~ 1,900
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
108,400
108,700
Chicago
4,018,500
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
105000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
100000
115000
95000
110000
90000
105000
85000
80000
100000
75000
95000
70000
90000
65000
85000
60000
1990
1992
1994
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4200000
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
4100000
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4000000
185000
3900000
180000
3800000
3700000
175000
3600000
170000
3500000
165000
3400000
160000
3300000
155000
3200000
150000
3100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
7
2016
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
48000
58000
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
30000
1990
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
2012
2014
2016
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
145000
160000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
98000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2015- March
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
51,600 jobs/year
112,200 jobs/year
In 8 years
32,300 jobs/year
70,100 jobs/year
In 10 years
25,800 jobs/year
56,100 jobs/year
In 15 years
17,200 jobs/year
37,400 jobs/year
* The figure 588,600 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
472,100. Adding 116,500, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 588,600.
** The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level during the last
recession) through June 2010.
*** The figure 330,400 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through March 2015.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –March 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Mar
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Mar 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
9,800
15.36%
20,100
31.50%
Manufacturing
-114,600
22,700
19.81%
22,200
19.37%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
68,000
69.60%
82,900
84.85%
Information
-11,300
-5,700
-50.44%
-5,800
-51.33%
Financial activities
-33,000
1,600
4.85%
-800
-2.42%
Professional & business services
-92,200
145,700
158.03%
159,200
172.67%
Education & health
32,600
74,900
-
94,000
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
47,600
213.45%
58,400
261.88%
Other Services
-5,900
-5,700
-96.61%
-5,000
-84.75%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-29,400
-
-26,600
-


Recovery by
Sector



During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction,
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 15.36%, 19.81%, 69.60%, 4.85%, 158.03% and 213.45%
respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By March 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Information and Other
Services are still negative, namely -51.33% and -84.75% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except
Manufacturing, Information and Financial Services.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
129.35
(Mar2015)
116.21
(Mar2015)
112.28
(Mar2015)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
March 2015**
19.43%
47.54%
24.61%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
132.07
(Feb 2015)
109.95
(Feb 2015)
112.56
(Feb 2015)
110.73
(Feb 2015)
94.09
(Feb 2015)
125.73
(Feb 2015)
114.35
(Feb 2015)
112.41
(Feb 2015)
105.77
(Feb 2015)
105.65
(Feb 2015)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
101.07%
50.15%
NA
119.06%
24.48%
46.28%
123.42%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak in February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession. We have also adjusted for differences in population and
labor participation rates i.e shadow unemployment between the data month and December 2007.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN FEBRUARY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 101.1 in February from 97.1 in January. The rise
is attributed to positive job growth in the construction and nonmanufacturing sectors and to improvement in
retail activities in the Chicago area.

In February, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that the industrial production index increased 0.1 percent in February after having fallen 1.1
percent in January.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.1 percentage points to 79.0 in February. The Chicago Fed
reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged lower to -0.11 in February from 0.10 in January, led by a fall in production- and consumption-related indicators. In the Chicago region,
manufacturing employment fell 0.08 percent in February. Employment in the nonmanufacturing and
construction sectors rose 0.22 percent and 1.27 percent, respectively, in February. Retail sales are estimated
to have increased 1.09 percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the path to recovery. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that national economic activity decreased to a neutral reading in
February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 126,000
and the unemployment rate was unchanged to 5.5 percent in March. Considering recent national economic
conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery
trend over the next several months.
Chicago Business Activity Index
CBAI (Current: 101.1)
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
97.1
99.2
96.6
Forecast (ahead)
97.7
93.8
-
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Peoria (1st to 9th) and Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (2nd to 10th) experienced the
deepest falls in February 2015.

Bloomington-Normal (4th to 5th) and Metro-East (6th to 7th) also dropped in terms of
rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in February was recorded for Kankakee (10th to 1st).

In the 12 months growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Kankakee (7th to 4th),
Springfield (6th to 5th) and Decatur (10th to 6th).

Downward moves were recorded for Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (5th to 7th), Peoria (4th to
8th) Bloomington-Normal (9th to 10th) and Metro-East (8th to 9th).

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal dropped to the last place and
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
January 2015
February 2015
Rank
Change**
1
Peoria(0.85%)
Kankakee(0.38%)
1
(+9)
2
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.6%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.27%)
2
(+1)
3
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.34%)
Chicago(0.2%)
3
(+2)
4
Bloomington-Normal(0.25%)
Rockford (0.13%)
4
(+3)
5
Chicago(0.2%)
Bloomington-Normal(0.12%)
5
(-1)
6
Metro-East(0.18%)
Springfield (0.11%)
6
(+2)
7
Rockford (-0.05%)
Metro-East(-0.01%)
7
(-1)
8
Springfield (-0.09%)
Decatur(-0.11%)
8
(+1)
9
Decatur(-0.68%)
Peoria(-0.78%)
9
(-8)
10
Kankakee(-0.99%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.83%)
10
(-8)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
January 2015
February 2015
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.95%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2.21%)
1
(+0)
2
Rockford (1.63%)
Rockford (1.59%)
2
(+0)
3
Chicago (1.53%)
Chicago (1.59%)
3
(+0)
4
Peoria (0.58%)
Kankakee (1.33%)
4
(+3)
5
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (0.56%)
Springfield (1.28%)
5
(+1)
6
Springfield (0.52%)
Decatur (-0.21%)
6
(+4)
7
Kankakee (0.43%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.24%)
7
 (-2)
8
Metro-East (-0.14%)
Peoria (-0.51%)
8
 (-4)
9
Bloomington-Normal (-1.05%)
Metro-East (-0.54%)
9
 (-1)
10
Decatur (-1.2%)
Bloomington-Normal (-0.55%)
10
 (-1)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/15
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15