I L L INO I S E C O NOM IC
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
AUGUST 2015
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 1,900 jobs in July 2015, compared with a 5,600 job loss in June 2015. Compared to July
2014, Illinois has added 50,100 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of
labor market, showed an increase of 1,200 jobs per month.
The Nation added 215,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a 231,000 job gain in June 2015.
The three-month moving average was up by 235,300 jobs per month.
The RMW gained 56,800 jobs in July after an 11,200 job gain in June 2015. The three-month moving
average was up by 29,100 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 41
times and positive job gains 49 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 63,900 jobs since
the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 339,100 new jobs.
By July 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts
show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing,
Information and Other Services.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.85%, 11.50% and
10.96%, compared to official unemployment rates of 5.8%, 5.0% and 5.3%.
Through July 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 12.45%, 16.82%, and 30.17%, respectively.
JULY 2015
E MP LOY M E N T C HA RT
August
Total NonFarm
Employment
Growth
Rate %
2015
Nation
0.15
215,000
2.09
2,915,000
10.96%
Positive
RMW*
0.29
56,800
1.68
330,300
11.50%
Illinois
0.03
1,900
0.85
50,100
10.85%
June 2015– July 2015
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
July 2015
Shadow
U.R. **
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – J U LY 2015
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E S AU G US T 2 0 1 4 –
J U LY 2 0 1 5
Aug/14
Sep/14
Oct/14
Nov/14
Dec/14
Jan/15
Feb/15
Mar/15
Apr/15
May/15
Jun/15
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.10%
Nation
RMW
IL
-0.15%
3
Jul/15
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector June 2015 –July 2015
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation
1.00%
RMW
S HA D OW
1.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 125,800 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4

Illinois
14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

US
14%
12%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
July
2015
5,924,000
211,200
573,600
1,190,400
July
2016 (p)
5,948,400
218,200
570,400
1,198,700
98,200
97,400
-800
-0.81%
368,400
932,200
898,500
562,700
250,600
828,900
369,900
932,500
914,200
570,000
250,500
826,500
1,500
300
15,700
7,300
-100
-2,400
0.41%
0.03%
1.75%
1.30%
-0.04%
-0.29%
Number of Jobs
24,400~44,800
7,000
-3,200
8,300
Growth Rate
%
0.41%~0.76%
3.31%
-0.56%
0.70%
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Growth
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
0.32%~ 0.82%
+
GOV (2.98%)
INF (-10.92%)
-400~-100
-0.36%~-0.09%
-
EDU (1.25%)
CON (-3.97%)
4,065,900
34,300~43,500
0.85%~1.08%
+
PRO (2.68%)
MAN (-2.73%)
182,400
181,300
-1,100~ -700
-0.58%~ -0.41%
-
EDU (1.00%)
INF (-5.33%)
50,200
49,600
-700~-500
-1.31%~-1.08%
-
PRO (5.11%)
INF (-5.80%)
Kankakee
44,800
44,900
30~200
0.18%~ 0.55%
+
INF (3.06%)
PRO (-2.74%)
Peoria
176,800
176,900
100~700
0.04 %~ 0.40%
+
GOV (3.05%)
PRO (-5.05%)
Rockford
151,500
151,200
-300~-30
-0.20%~-0.02%
-
MAN (1.81%)
CON (-7.07%)
Springfield
112,100
112,000
-200~-100
-0.14%~ -0.08%
-
EDU (2.28%)
INF (-3.08%)
June 2015*
June
2016
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Bloomington-Normal
95,100
95,400
300 ~ 800
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
108,000
107,600
Chicago
4,031,600
MSAs
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
105000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
100000
115000
95000
110000
90000
85000
105000
80000
100000
75000
95000
70000
90000
65000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
85000
2016
1990
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4200000
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
4100000
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4000000
185000
3900000
180000
3800000
175000
3700000
170000
3600000
165000
3500000
160000
3400000
155000
3300000
3200000
150000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
48000
58000
46000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
30000
2016
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
145000
160000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
2016
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
98000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Year
2016
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2015- July
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
51,800 jobs/year
114,100 jobs/year
In 8 years
32,400 jobs/year
71,300 jobs/year
In 10 years
25,900 jobs/year
57,000 jobs/year
In 15 years
17,300 jobs/year
38,000 jobs/year
* The figure 597,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
472,100. Adding 125,800, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 597,900.
**The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 339,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through July 2015.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –July 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-July
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-July 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
7,300
11.44%
14,300
22.41%
Manufacturing
-114,600
18,800
16.40%
15,500
13.53%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
70,100
71.75%
77,800
79.63%
Information
-11,300
-6,200
-54.87%
-7,000
-61.95%
Financial activities
-33,000
3,700
11.21%
4,900
14.85%
Professional & business services
-92,200
150,800
163.56%
151,100
163.88%
Education & health
32,600
76,600
-
92,300
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
50,800
227.80%
58,100
260.54%
Other Services
-5,900
-5,400
-91.53%
-5,500
-93.22%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-27,800
-
-29,800
-


Recovery by
Sector



During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction,
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 11.44%, 16.40%, 71.75%, 11.21%, 163.56% and 227.80%
respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By July 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality
had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, recovery rates for sectors such as Information and Other
Services are still negative, namely -54.87% and -91.53% respectively.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except
Manufacturing, Information and Other Services.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
130.17
(July 2015)
116.82
(July 2015)
112.45
(July 2015)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
July 2015**
19.52%
39.85%
23.99%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
133.41
(June 2015)
109.55
(June 2015)
112.91
(June 2015)
110.19
(June 2015)
93.40
(June 2015)
124.92
(June 2015)
114.01
(June 2015)
112.39
(June 2015)
106.68
(June 2015)
107.43
(June 2015)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
105.48 %
41.67%
NA
104.59%
20.69%
46.19%
162.36%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak in February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession. We have also adjusted for differences in population and
labor participation rates i.e shadow unemployment between the data month and December 2007.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN JUNE
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 97.3 in June from 93.2 in May. The rise is
attributed to the job growth in the nonmanufacturing sector and to improved retail activities in the Chicago
area.

In June, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board announced
that the industrial production index increased 0.1 percent in June after having fallen 0.3 percent in May.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was little changed at 77.7 in June. The Chicago Fed reported
that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.08 in June from -0.08 in May, led
by a rise in the production and employment-related indicators. In the Chicago region, employment in the
nonmanufacturing sector rose 0.06 percent in June. Employment in the manufacturing and construction
sectors declined 0.09 percent and 2.23 percent, respectively, in June. Retail sales are estimated to have
increased 0.89 percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the expansion phase. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was very close to historical
trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 and
the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3 percent in July. Considering recent national economic conditions
and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the
next several months.
Chicago Business Activity Index
CBAI (Current: 97.3)
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
93.2
96.6
100.5
Forecast (ahead)
96.3
93.6
-
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Rockford (3rd to 8th) experienced the deepest fall in June 2015.

Chicago (4th to 7th), Davenport (5th to 9th) and Kankakee (6th to 10th) also dropped in terms
of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in June was recorded for Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (10th
to 3rd).

In the 12-month growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Metro-East (5th to 1st),
Chicago (3rd to 2nd), Bloomington-Normal (8th to 6th) and Decatur (10th to 9th).

Downward moves were recorded for Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2nd to 3rd), Kankakee (1th to
5th), Springfield (6th to 7th), Davenport (5th to 9th) and Peoria (9th to 10th).

In the 12 months growth league table, Peoria dropped to the last place and Metro-East climbed
to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
May 2015
June 2015
Rank
Change**
1
Metro-East(1.37%)
Metro-East(1.43%)
1
2
Bloomington-Normal(0.69%)
Bloomington-Normal(1%)
2
(+0)
(+0)
3
Rockford (0.09%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.41%)
3
(+7)
4
Chicago(0.09%)
Decatur(0.18%)
4
(+3)
5
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.07%)
Peoria(0.15%)
5
(+4)
6
Kankakee(0.02%)
Springfield (0.15%)
6
(+2)
7
Decatur(-0.01%)
Chicago(0.11%)
7
(-3)
8
Springfield (-0.12%)
Rockford (-0.05%)
8
(-5)
9
Peoria(-0.17%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.46%)
9
(-4)
10
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(-0.2%)
Kankakee(-0.96%)
10
(-4)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
May 2015
June 2015
Rank
Change**
1
Kankakee (2.54%)
Metro-East (1.86%)
1
(+4)
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.19%)
Chicago (1.29%)
2
(+1)
3
Chicago (1.16%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.03%)
3
 (-1)
4
Rockford (1.05%)
Rockford (0.98%)
4
(+0)
5
Metro-East (0.25%)
Kankakee (0.96%)
5
 (-4)
6
Springfield (-0.11%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.54%)
6
(+2)
7
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.2%)
Springfield (-0.17%)
7
 (-1)
8
Bloomington-Normal (-0.44%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.85%)
8
 (-1)
9
Peoria (-1.41%)
Decatur (-0.97%)
9
(+1)
10
Decatur (-1.59%)
Peoria (-1.35%)
10
 (-1)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/15
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15