The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
OCTOBER 2015

EMP LOY ME NT DA TA SUMM ARY
 Illinois lost 6,900 jobs in September 2015, compared with a 5,200 job loss in August 2015. Compared to September 2014, Illinois has added 27,100 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed a decrease of 4,300 jobs per month.
 The Nation added 142,000 jobs at a rate of 0.10%, compared with a 136,000 job gain in August 2015.
The three-month moving average was up by 167,000 jobs per month.
 The RMW lost 39,700 jobs in September after a 34,500 job gain in August 2015. The three-month moving average was up by 17,100 jobs per month.
 Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has positive job gains 49 times and negative job changes 43 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 78,700 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
 Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 324,300 new jobs.
 By September 2015 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for every sector except Construction,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
 The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.47%, 11.34% and
11.14%, compared to official unemployment rates of 5.4%, 4.6% and 5.0%.
 Through September 2015, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 12.17%, 16.78%, and 30.44%, respectively.
SEP TE MB ER
E MPLOY MEN T C HA RT
Total Non-
Farm
Employment
Aug 2015– Sep 2015
Growth
Rate %
Number of
Jobs
0.1 142,000
-0.2
-0.12
-39,700
-6900
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Sep 2015
Shadow
U.R. **
1.97 2,752,000 11.14%
1.52
0.46
298,000 11.34%
27,100 10.47%
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

135.00
T OTAL N O N FA RM E M PLOYME NT GROWTH R AT E J AN 1990 – SE PTE MBER 2015
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.30%
100.00
National RMW IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LAST 12 MONTHS TOTAL NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT GROW TH RATES OCT 2014 – SEP
2015
Oct/14 Nov/14 Dec/14 Jan/15 Feb/15 Mar/15 Apr/15 May/15 Jun/15 Jul/15 Aug/15 Sep/15
0.40%
0.30%
Nation RMW IL

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector August 2015 – September 2015
-1.20% -1.00% -0.80% -0.60% -0.40% -0.20% 0.00%
Nation
0.20%
RMW
0.40%
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
0.60%
IL
0.80%
90 Government
HA DOW UN E MPLOY MEN T
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
 In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
 For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
 In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%; for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
 The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
 After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006 when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
 To bring the two together a further 93,800 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.


14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate

E
F
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
September
2015
5,909,200
208,200
September
2016 (p)
Number of Jobs
5,877,700 -31,500~-8,300
210,400 2,200
568,500
1,179,800
98,100
548,900
1,164,600
96,500
-19,600
-15,200
-1,600
369,000
935,600
899,100
560,200
251,900
829,600
368,900
937,800
910,100
565,400
251,000
824,100
-100
2,200
11,000
5,200
-900
-5,500
Growth Rate
%
-0.53%~-0.14%
1.06%
-3.45%
-1.29%
-1.63%
-0.03%
0.24%
1.22%
0.93%
-0.36%
-0.66%
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.

MSAs
Aug 2015*
Aug
2016
(p)*
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Bloomington-Normal
Champaign-Urbana-
Rantoul
Chicago
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
95,200
108,400
4,023,100
180,000
50,700
44,000
176,200
151,200
95,700
108,700
460 ~ 500
300~600
4,083,900 47,100~60,700
177,600
50,400
44,100
177,000
150,800
Springfield 111,300 111,400
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
105000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
0.48%~ 0.57%
0.25%~0.56%
1.17%~1.51%
-2,400~ -1,600 -1.34%~ -0.91%
-300~-100
100~110
-0.56%~-0.13%
0.11%~ 0.26%
800~1,200
-500~-400
100~300
0.45%~ 0.69%
-0.31%~-0.25%
0.11%~ 0.27%
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
100000
115000
95000
110000
90000
85000 105000
Growth
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Sector with
Lowest
Growth
Rate (p)
GOV (3.17%) INF (-13.31%)
EDU (2.50%) MAN (-2.43%)
CON (4.94%) MAN (-1.26%)
CON (0.55%) EDU (-5.05%)
LEI (1.93%)
INF (8.31%)
INF (-4.93%)
PRO (-2.57%)
PRO (2.61%) CON (-1.48%)
EDU (1.78%) CON (-6.31%)
EDU (2.42%) INF (-4.20%)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
80000
75000
70000
65000
60000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
100000
95000
90000
85000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4200000
4100000
4000000
3900000
3800000
3700000
3600000
3500000
3400000
3300000
3200000
3100000
1990 1992
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
190000
185000
180000
175000
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
165000
160000
155000
150000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year Year

Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
60000
58000
56000
54000
52000
50000
48000
46000
44000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
190000
180000
170000
160000
150000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
140000
130000
120000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
48000
46000
44000
42000
40000
38000
36000
34000
32000
30000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
165000
160000
155000
150000
145000
140000
135000
130000
125000
120000
1990
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
118000
116000
114000
102000
100000
98000
1990 1992 1994
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year

At the point of
2015- September
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years 48,300 jobs/year 107,700 jobs/year
In 8 years 30,200 jobs/year 67,300 jobs/year
In 10 years 24,200 jobs/year 53,800 jobs/year
In 15 years 16,100 jobs/year 35,900 jobs/year
* The figure 565,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
472,100. Adding 93,800, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 565,900.
**The figure 27,500 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 324,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through September 2015.

I
J
R
S
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – September 2015
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Sep
2015
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-Sep 2016
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-63,800
-114,600
-97,700
4,300
13,700
59,500
6.74%
11.95%
60.90%
6,500
-6,000
43,700
10.19%
-5.24%
44.73%
Information
Financial activities
-11,300
-33,000
-6,300
4,300
-55.75%
13.03%
-7,900
3,900
-69.91%
11.82%
Professional & business services -92,200 154,200 167.25% 156,400 169.63%
Education & health 32,600 77,200 - 88,200
Leisure & hospitality -22,300 48,300 216.59% 53,500 239.91%
Other Services -5,900 -4,100 -69.49% -5,000
Government 6,000 -27,100 - -32,200
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
Recovery by
Sector
 During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
 Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction,
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 6.74%, 11.95%, 60.90%, 13.03%, 167.25% and 216.59% respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
 By September 2015, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
 However, recovery rates for sectors such as Information and Other
Services are still negative, namely -55.75% and -69.49% respectively.
 The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for every sector except
Construction, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
-84.75%
-
-

C
S
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
130.44
(Sep 2015)
116.78
(Sep 2015)
112.17
(Sep 2015)
Metro Areas***:
133.52
(Aug 2015)
109.97
(Aug 2015)
112.67
(Aug 2015)
108.76
(Aug 2015)
94.22
(Aug 2015)
122.55
(Aug 2015)
113.61
(Aug 2015)
112.19
(Aug 2015)
105.29
(Aug 2015)
106.04
(Aug 2015)
Positive growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Negative growth
Positive growth
Positive growth
Negative growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive growth
Positive
growth
Negative growth
**
16.49%
42.01 %
28.46%
NA
NA
102.46 %
19.48%
NA
62.28%
16.33%
44.76%
62.46%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak in February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession. We have also adjusted for differences in population and labor participation rates i.e shadow unemployment between the data month and December 2007.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.

This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 97.3 in August from 99.6 in July. The fall is attributed to the negative job growth in the manufacturing, nonmanufacturing and construction sectors and to a decline in retail activities in the Chicago area.

In August, the national and regional economies shared negative features. The Federal Reserve Board announced that the industrial production index decreased 0.4 percent in August after having increased 0.9 percent in July.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.4 percentage point in August to 77.6 percent. The Chicago
Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.41 in August from +0.51 in
July, led by a fall in the production, consumption and housing-related indicators. In the Chicago region, employment in the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors decreased 0.23 percent and 0.29 percent, respectively, in August. Employment in the construction sector fell 0.57 percent in August. Retail sales are estimated to have declined 0.52 percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the expansion phase. The economic growth reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity is close to its historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 142,000 and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent in September. Considering recent national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to continue its recovery trend over the next several months.
CBAI (Current: 97.3)
Historical (ago)
Forecast (ahead)
1 month 3 month 1 year
99.6
96.3
93.0
98.0
98.2
-

 Peoria (3rd to 9th) experienced the deepest fall in August 2015.
 Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2nd to 6th) and Chicago (4th to 8th) also dropped in terms of rank from last month.
 The most remarkable upward move in August was recorded for Rockford (8th to 3rd).
 In the 12-month growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Metro-East (5th to 4th),
Bloomington-Normal (6th to 5th), Decatur (8th to 6th) and Peoria (9th to 8th).
 Downward move was recorded for Kankakee (4th to 9th).
 In the 12 months growth league table, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline remained in the last place while Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.

MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank July 2015
Decatur(0.42%)
1
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.22%)
3
Peoria(0.22%)
4
Chicago(0.19%)
5
Bloomington-Normal(0.16%)
6
Metro-East(-0.11%)
7
3
Springfield (-0.2%)
8
2
Rockford (-0.22%)
9
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.51%)
10
Rank
1
Kankakee(-0.98%)
Growth over last 12-months:
July 2015
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.98%)
Chicago (1.46%)
Rockford (0.82%)
4
Kankakee (0.75%)
5
Metro-East (0.59%)
6
Bloomington-Normal (0.52%)
7
Springfield (0.01%)
8
Decatur (-0.77%)
9
Peoria (-1.06%)
10
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-1.93%)
August 2015
Decatur(0.29%)
Metro-East(0.11%)
Rockford (0.06%)
Bloomington-Normal(0.02%)
Springfield (-0.3%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(-0.31%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.34%)
Chicago(-0.36%)
Peoria(-0.75%)
Kankakee(-2.03%)
August 2015
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.33%)
Chicago (0.94%)
Rockford (0.76%)
Metro-East (0.63%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.48%)
Decatur (-0.21%)
Springfield (-0.54%)
Peoria (-1.46%)
Kankakee (-1.56%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-2.25%)
Rank Change**
1
2
 (+0)
 (+4)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
 (+5)
 (+1)
 (+2)
 (-4)
 (+2)
 (-4)
 (-6)

(+0)
Rank Change**
1
2
3
4

(+0)

(+0)
 (+0)
 (+1)
5
6
7
8
9
10
 (+1)
 (+2)
 (+0)
 (+1)
 (-5)

(+0)
* MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.

Comparing MSAs Indices with Chicago Indices
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
-20.00
-40.00
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Bloomington Champaign Davenport Decatur Peoria Rockford Springfield Kankakee
*Values below (above) zero indicate that an MSA is performing less well (better) than Chicago.
 From early 2007 to early 2009, all MSAs performed better than Chicago.
 However, from Mid-2009 to late-2011, MSAs generally performed less well than Chicago except for Bloomington-Normal.
 After December 2012, all MSAs performed less well than Chicago.
According to the forecast for August 2016, Bloomington-Normal, Decatur, Peoria, Rockford and
Kankakee are likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.

30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
40,000
Initial Claims (IL)
35,000
Initial Claims (US)
`
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0