I L L INO I S E C O NOM IC
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
FEBRUARY 2016
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois lost 6,500 jobs in January 2016, compared with an 8,300 job loss in December 2015.
Compared to January 2015, Illinois has added 49,600 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more
stable measure of labor market, showed a decrease of 8,500 jobs per month.
The Nation added 172,000 jobs at a rate of 0.12%, compared with a 271,000 job gain in December
2015. The three-month moving average was up by 241,000 jobs per month.
The RMW added 34,600 jobs in January after a 44,600 job gain in December 2015. The three-month
moving average was up by 33,200 jobs per month.
Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, Illinois has positive job gains 51 times and
negative job changes 45 times. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 17,500 jobs since the
beginning of the recession in December 2007.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 384,000 new jobs.
By January 2016 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts
show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for every sector except Construction,
Financial Activities and Leisure & hospitality.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 10.05%, 10.32% and
10.23%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.3%, 4.6% and 4.9%.
Through January 2016, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 13.28%, 17.72%, and 31.26%, respectively.
F E B RUA RY 2016
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
February
Total NonFarm
Employment
Growth
Rate %
2016
Nation
0.12
172,000
1.92
2,695,000
10.23%
Negative
RMW*
0.17
34,600
1.4
278,400
10.32%
Illinois
-0.11
-6500
0.84
49,600
10.05%
Dec 2015– Jan 2016
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Jan 2016
Shadow
U.R. **
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – J A N UA RY 2016
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E S F E B 2 0 1 5 – JA N
2016
Feb/15
Mar/15
Apr/15
May/15
Jun/15
Jul/15
Aug/15
Sep/15
Oct/15
Nov/15
Dec/15
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Nation
RMW
IL
-0.30%
3
Jan/16
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector December 2015 – January 2016
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
Nation
0.50%
RMW
S HA D OW
1.00%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 64,800 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
12%
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
January
2016
5,967,700
218,600
578,300
1,200,000
January
2017 (p)
5,929,100
223,300
577,200
1,176,800
-38,600~-5,600
4,700
-1,100
-23,200
Growth Rate
%
-0.65%~-0.09%
2.15%
-0.19%
-1.93%
98,800
93,900
-4,900
-4.96%
378,500
917,900
908,200
584,900
252,000
821,100
375,600
906,800
917,300
589,100
250,400
818,600
-2,900
-11,100
9,100
4,200
-1,600
-2,500
-0.77%
-1.21%
1.00%
0.72%
-0.63%
-0.30%
Number of Jobs
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
MSAs
December
2015*
December
2016 (p)*
Bloomington-Normal
94,300
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
Chicago
Sector with
Lowest
Growth Rate
(p)
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
Number
of Jobs *
Growth
Rate %
Growth
94,800
500 ~ 600
0.50%~ 0.67%
+
GOV (5.51%)
INF (-12.79%)
108,600
109,000
400~500
0.35%~0.43%
+
INF (7.37%)
MAN (-1.50%)
4,026,000
4,006,100
19,800~24,
700
-0.49%~0.61%
-
TTU (4.93%)
PRO (-6.89%)
179,200
179,100
-100~ 200
-0.08%~ 0.09%
-
EDU (3.60%)
INF (-3.66%)
50,300
49,400
-900~-800
-1.61%~-1.76%
-
PRO (2.11%)
INF (-6.56%)
Kankakee
44,800
45,500
700~1,200
1.45%~ 2.69%
+
PRO (4.93%)
MAN (-1.53%)
Peoria
178,200
178,300
100~500
0.04%~ 0.27%
+
PRO (4.02%)
LEI (-3.92%)
Rockford
151,200
151,230
60~700
0.04%~0.43%
+
EDU (2.30%)
CON (-7.14%)
Springfield
112,800
112,500
-300~-230
-0.23%~ 0.20%
-
EDU (2.44%)
INF (-11.21%)
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
105000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
100000
115000
95000
110000
90000
105000
85000
80000
100000
75000
95000
70000
90000
65000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
85000
2016
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
4000000
190000
3900000
185000
3800000
180000
3700000
175000
3600000
170000
3500000
165000
3400000
160000
3300000
155000
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
150000
3200000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
2016
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
60000
46000
58000
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
30000
2016
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
160000
145000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
120000
2016
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Year
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
98000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2016
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2016 - January
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
30,200 jobs/year
101,800 jobs/year
In 8 years
18,900 jobs/year
63,600 jobs/year
In 10 years
15,100 jobs/year
50,900 jobs/year
In 15 years
10,100 jobs/year
33,900 jobs/year
* The figure 535,100 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment
peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is
470,300. Adding 64,800, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates
together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 535,100.
** The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 384,000 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through January 2016.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – January 2016
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Jan
2016
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-January
2017
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
14,700
23.04%
19,400
30.41%
Manufacturing
-114,600
23,500
20.51%
22,300
19.46%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
79,700
81.58%
55,900
57.22%
Information
-11,300
-5,600
-49.56%
-10,500
-92.92%
Financial activities
-32,600
5,600
17.18%
10,600
32.52%
Professional & business services
-92,300
144,500
156.55%
133,400
144.53%
Education & health
33,800
87,700
-
96,800
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
73,000
327.35%
77,200
346.19%
Other Services
-5,900
-4,000
-67.80%
-5,600
-94.92%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-35,600
-
-37,700
-


Recovery by
Sector



During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction,
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 23.04%, 20.51%, 81.58%, 17.18%, 156.55% and 327.35%
respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By January 2016, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, the recovery rates for Information and Other Services are still
negative, namely -92.92% and -94.92%.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for every sector except
Construction, Financial Activities and Leisure & hospitality.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
131.26
(Jan 2016)
117.72
(Jan 2016)
113.28
(Jan 2016)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
January 2016**
30.52%
56.90 %
33.61%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
132.19
(Dec 2015)
110.12
(Dec 2015)
114.02
(Dec 2015)
109.12
(Dec 2015)
96.03
(Dec 2015)
124.80
(Dec 2015)
114.82
(Dec 2015)
112.73
(Dec 2015)
108.08
(Dec 2015)
106.24
(Dec 2015)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
NA
NA
103.67%
12.11%
NA
107.87%
30.82%
43.86%
241.13%
NA
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak in February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession. We have also adjusted for differences in population and
labor participation rates i.e shadow unemployment between the data month and December 2007.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI DECREASED IN DECEMBER
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 97.2 in December from 98.7 in November. The
decline is attributed to the negative job growth in the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors in the
Chicago area.

In December, the national and regional economies shared mixed features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that the industrial production index decreased 0.4 percent in December after having fallen 0.9
percent in November.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector fell 0.4 percentage point in December to 76.5 percent. The
Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to -0.22 in
December from -0.36 in November. In the Chicago region, employment in the manufacturing and
nonmanufacturing sectors decreased 0.25 percent and 0.08 percent, respectively, in December. Employment
in the construction sector rose 1.84 percent in December. Retail sales are estimated to have increased 1.55
percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the expansion phase. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity is somewhat below its
historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased
by 151,000 and the unemployment rate was little unchanged at 4.9 percent in January. Considering recent
national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to
continue its recovery trend over the next several months.
Chicago Business Activity Index
CBAI (Current: 97.2)
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
98.7
94.7
96.3
Forecast (ahead)
97.9
98.6
-
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Bloomington-Normal (4th to 10th) experienced the deepest fall in December 2015.

Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1st to 6th) and Springfield (2nd to 7th) also dropped in terms
of rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in December was recorded for Kankakee (9th to 1st).

In the 12-month growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Metro-East (5th to
2nd), Peoria (7th to 5th) and Kankakee (8th to 7th).

Downward moves were recorded for Springfield (2nd to 4th), Bloomington-Normal (4th to
6th) and Rockford (6th to 8th).

In the 12 months growth league table, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline remained in the last place
while Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul remained in the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
November 2015
December 2015
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.3%)
Kankakee(0.14%)
1
(+9)
2
Springfield (0.25%)
Peoria(0.11%)
2
(+1)
3
Peoria(0.16%)
Metro-East(0.1%)
3
(+3)
4
Bloomington-Normal(0.12%)
Chicago(-0.1%)
4
(+3)
5
Rockford (0.06%)
Rockford (-0.22%)
5
(+0)
6
Metro-East(-0.03%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(-0.28%)
6
(-5)
7
Chicago(-0.05%)
Springfield (-0.34%)
7
(-5)
8
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.17%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.56%)
8
(+0)
9
Decatur(-0.38%)
Decatur(-0.68%)
9
(+0)
10
Kankakee(-0.73%)
Bloomington-Normal(-0.68%)
10
(-6)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
November 2015
December 2015
Rank
Change**
1
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.54%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (0.88%)
1
(+0)
2
Springfield (1.27%)
Metro-East (0.76%)
2
(+3)
3
Chicago (1.02%)
Chicago (0.54%)
3
(+0)
4
Bloomington-Normal (0.97%)
Springfield (0.47%)
4
(-2)
5
Metro-East (0.78%)
Peoria (0.18%)
5
(+2)
6
Rockford (-0.18%)
Bloomington-Normal (0.16%)
6
(-2)
7
Peoria (-0.29%)
Kankakee (-0.01%)
7
(+1)
8
Kankakee (-0.51%)
Rockford (-0.18%)
8
 (-2)
9
Decatur (-1.19%)
Decatur (-1.79%)
9
(+0)
10
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-1.75%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-2.44%)
10
(+0)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Illinois MSA Business Indices & Forecast
Comparing MSAs Indices with Chicago Indices
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
-20.00
-40.00
Bloomington
04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Champaign
Davenport
Decatur
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Kankakee
*Values below (above) zero indicate that an MSA is performing less well (better) than Chicago.

From early 2007 to early 2009, all MSAs performed better than Chicago.

However, from Mid-2009 to present, MSAs generally performed less well than Chicago
except for Bloomington-Normal.

According to the forecast for December 2016, Bloomington-Normal, Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline, Decatur, Peoria, and Rockford are likely to perform less well over this period
than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago.
15
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/16
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
16