I L L INO I S E C O NOM IC
R E V I EW
The Monthly Illinois Economic Review contains information on national, statewide, and local economic
performance by measuring job growth, unemployment, and business activity. This information is compiled by
IGPA Economist Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with assistance from Yizhou Zhang and Kijin Kim.
MARCH 2016
EMPLOYMENT
E MP LOY ME N T DA TA S UM M A RY








Illinois added 18,100 jobs in February 2016, compared with a revised 1,500 job gain in January 2016.
Compared to February 2015, Illinois has added 65,700 jobs. The three-month moving average, a
more stable measure of labor market, showed an increase of 3,800 jobs per month.
The Nation added 242,000 jobs at a rate of 0.17%, compared with a revised 172,000 job gain in
January 2016. The three-month moving average was up by 228,300 jobs per month.
The RMW added 35,700 jobs in February after a revised 34,100 job gain in January 2016. The threemonth moving average was up by 38,100 jobs per month.
The state of Illinois now has 8,600 more jobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession
started.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois
has added 410,100 new jobs.
By February 2016 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts
show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Trade,
transportation & utilities and Information.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.69%, 9.86% and 10.23%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.4%, 4.6% and 4.9%.
Through February 2016, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to
January 1990 stood at 13.77%, 17.93%, and 31.48%, respectively.
M A RC H 2016
E MP LOY ME N T C HA RT
March
Total NonFarm
Employment
Growth
Rate %
2016
Nation
0.17
242,000
1.9
2,672,000
10.23%
Positive
RMW*
0.18
35,700
1.47
292,700
9.86%
Illinois
0.3
18100
1.11
65,700
9.69%
Jan 2016– Feb 2016
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Growth
Rate %
Number
of Jobs
Feb 2016
Shadow
U.R. **
*RMW stands for Rest of the Midwest including six states, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin.
**REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates
matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
2
T OTA L N O N - FA R M E M P L OY M E N T G ROW T H R A T E J A N 1990 – F E B RUA RY 2016
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
L A S T 1 2 M O N T HS TOTA L NO N - FA R M E M P L OY M E NT GROW T H R AT E S M A R 2 0 1 5 – F E B
2016
Mar/15
Apr/15
May/15
Jun/15
Jul/15
Aug/15
Sep/15
Oct/15
Nov/15
Dec/15
Jan/16
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Nation
RMW
IL
-0.30%
3
Feb/16
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector January 2016 – February 2016
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation
1.00%
RMW
S HA D OW
1.50%
IL
UN E MP LOY ME N T
Unemployment Rate: Official and Shadow
The unemployment rate estimates the percentage of workers in the labor force who are currently unemployed
but who are seeking work. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population 16 and older
who are either working or actively seeking work. The participation rate has declined since the 1990s and thus
a number of analysts feel that the official unemployment rate does not account for a larger number of people
who have dropped out of the labor force. REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated
as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for
the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.






In the 1990s, the average participation rate was 68.2% in Illinois whereas in 2010, it has been only
66.6%.
For the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 68.1% in Illinois.
In the 1990s in the US, the average participation rate was 65.5% whereas in 2010, it has been 66.0%;
for the 15 years from 1990 to 2004, the average participation rate was 66.6%.
The figures on the next page show the difference between the official and shadow unemployment
rate for Illinois (top figure) and the US as a whole (bottom figure).
After 2000, the gap between Illinois’s official and shadow unemployment rates increased until 2006
when it began to shrink. However, the gap went increasing again since 2010.
To bring the two together a further 40,000 jobs would need to be created in Illinois.
4
Illinois

14%
Unemployment Rate
12%
Shadow Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
US

14%
Unemployment Rate
Shadow Unemployment Rate
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5
E MPLOYMENT F ORECAST
Illinois
Total non-farm
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation & utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
6200
February
2016
5,993,800
215,600
580,600
1,206,800
February
2017 (p)
6,008,000
218,800
589,000
1,199,300
14,200~40,800
3,200
8,400
-7,500
Growth Rate
%
0.24%~0.68%
1.48%
1.45%
-0.62%
98,600
94,800
-3,800
-3.85%
377,800
922,200
907,800
588,700
255,100
831,300
375,900
928,100
921,700
595,600
255,400
829,400
-1,900
5,900
13,900
6,900
300
-1,900
-0.50%
0.64%
1.53%
1.17%
0.12%
-0.23%
Number of Jobs
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
4800
4600
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
* The values by sector for the number of jobs added are the lower bound of the forecast.
6
Employment Forecast for MSAs
Sector with
Lowest
Growth Rate
(p)
Number of
Jobs *
Growth Rate
%
Growt
h
Sector with
Highest
Growth
Rate
(p)
94,300
300 ~ 400
0.26%~ 0.43%
+
GOV (2.11%)
MAN (-6.27%)
108,700
108,400
-300~200
-
INF (3.99%)
CON (-6.88%)
4,085,700
4,091,200
5,500~46,600
0.13%~1.14%
+
CON (8.02%)
INF (-2.47%)
182,400
181,500
-900~ -400
-0.49%~ -0.23%
-
EDU (1.10%)
CON (-3.05%)
51,300
50,600
-600~-500
-
CON (2.90%)
INF (-5.80%)
Kankakee
44,700
45,200
500~1,000
1.23%~ 2.17%
+
INF (6.33%)
MAN (-2.91%)
Peoria
178,200
178,300
100~200
0.08%~ 0.12%
+
EDU (9.12%)
PRO (-14.86%)
Rockford
154,400
155,800
1,300~2,100
0.86%~1.39%
+
PRO (2.95%)
INF (-7.27%)
Springfield
112,800
113,500
800~1,400
0.68%~ 1.21%
+
PRO (15.39%)
CON (-7.02%)
MSAs
January
2015*
January
2016 (p)*
Bloomington-Normal
94,000
Champaign-UrbanaRantoul
Chicago
Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
-0.28%~0.14%
-1.23%~-0.98%
*Total Non-Farm Jobs
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
105000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Bloomington (BN)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (CU)
120000
100000
115000
95000
110000
90000
105000
85000
80000
100000
75000
95000
70000
90000
65000
60000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
85000
2016
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
4200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
195000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Chicago (CHI)
4100000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Davenport-Rock-Island-Moline (DRM)
190000
4000000
185000
3900000
180000
3800000
175000
3700000
170000
3600000
3500000
165000
3400000
160000
3300000
155000
3200000
150000
3100000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1990
2014
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Year
7
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
62000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
50000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Decatur (DE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Kankakee (KA)
48000
60000
46000
58000
44000
56000
42000
54000
40000
52000
38000
50000
36000
48000
34000
46000
32000
44000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
30000
2014
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Year
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
200000
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
170000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Peoria (PE)
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Rockford (RO)
165000
190000
160000
180000
155000
170000
150000
145000
160000
140000
150000
135000
140000
130000
130000
125000
120000
120000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1990
2016
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Number of Jobs
(in thousands)
120000
Total Non-farm Employment Forecast
Springfield (SP)
118000
116000
114000
112000
110000
108000
106000
104000
102000
100000
98000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Year
Year
2016
Year
8
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2016 – February
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
20,000 jobs/year
96,800 jobs/year
In 8 years
12,500 jobs/year
60,500 jobs/year
In 10 years
10,000 jobs/year
48,400 jobs/year
In 15 years
6,700 jobs/year
32,300 jobs/year
* * The figure 510,300 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous
employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec2009 is 470,300. Adding 40,000, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment
rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 510,300.
**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 410,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through February 2016.
9
I LLINOIS J OB R ECOVERY BY S ECTOR
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – February 2016
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Jan
2016
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan
2010-January
2017
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
14,100
22.10%
14,900
23.35%
Manufacturing
-114,600
22,300
19.46%
34,100
29.76%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
82,000
83.93%
78,400
80.25%
Information
-11,300
-5,800
-51.33%
-9,600
-84.96%
Financial activities
-32,600
5,300
16.26%
10,900
33.44%
Professional & business services
-92,300
142,200
154.06%
154,700
167.61%
Education & health
33,800
89,300
-
101,200
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
72,600
325.56%
83,700
375.34%
Other Services
-5,900
-3,800
-64.41%
-600
-10.17%
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009
6,000
-26,700
-
-26,900
-


Recovery by
Sector



During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of
10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health
and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth
during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction,
Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities,
Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have
recovered 22.10%, 19.46%, 83.93%, 16.26%, 154.06% and 325.56%
respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By February 2016, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
However, the recovery rates for Information and Other Services are still
negative, namely -51.33% and -64.41%.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future
recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Trade,
transportation & utilities and Information.
10
C ATCH UP S CENARIO
Catch-up Scenario* of Previous Peak Job Index in Illinois
Nation
RMW
IL
Previous Peak
Current
Catch-up
126.49
(Dec-2007)
119.39
(Jun-2000)
115.00
(Nov-2000)
131.48
(Feb 2016)
117.93
(Feb 2016)
113.77
(Feb 2016)
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Recovery rates at
February 2016**
30.52%
63.56 %
37.94%
Metro Areas***:
Bloomington
Normal
ChampaignUrbana
Chicago
Davenport- Rock
Island-Moline
Decatur
Kankakee
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Metro-East
142.06
(Feb 2002)
116.26
(Jan 2009)
114.82
(Nov 2000)
115.06
(Mar 2008)
112.38
(Jan 2000)
125.66
(Nov 2011)
122.09
(Aug 2008)
122.81
(Nov 2000)
110.94
(Aug 2000)
114.97
(Jun 2001)
131.32
(Jan 2016)
111.29
(Jan 2016)
114.87
(Jan 2016)
109.79
(Jan 2016)
94.78
(Jan 2016)
126.35
(Jan 2016)
114.97
(Jan 2016)
113.99
(Jan 2016)
107.86
(Jan 2016)
109.21
(Jan 2016)
Negative
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Negative
growth
Positive
Growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
Positive
growth
NA
NA
126.00%
42.12%
NA
98.00%
30.52%
61.39%
359.06%
41.54%
* Catch-up scenarios are based on average monthly growth rate over the previous 12 months. Nation already passed its previous peak in February
2005.
**Recovery rates are percentage of jobs added since the last official end of the recession. We have also adjusted for differences in population and
labor participation rates i.e shadow unemployment between the data month and December 2007.
*** Due to lag of data release schedule there is one month of time lag in the catch-up scenario for metro areas.
NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state employment
data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for Illinois over the past year.
11
CBAI INCREASED IN JANUARY
This index is based on national indices of leading indicators and is a barometer for the economy, tracing the
path of growth or contraction through to the current period and then forecasts up to 24 months into the
future.

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) increased to 99.3 in January from 98.4 in December. The
increase is attributed to the job growth in the manufacturing, nonmanufacturing and construction sectors and
to the improved retail activities in the Chicago area.

In January, the national and regional economies shared positive features. The Federal Reserve Board
announced that the industrial production index increased 0.8 percent in January to 106.9 after having fallen
0.5 percent in December.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.6 percentage point in January to 77.1 percent. The
Chicago Fed reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose up to +0.28 in January
from -0.34 in December. In the Chicago region, employment in the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing
sectors increased 0.40 percent and 0.23 percent, respectively, in January. Employment in the construction
sector rose 1.44 percent in January. Retail sales are estimated to have increased 1.01 percent.

In the coming months, the national economy is likely to stay on the expansion phase. The economic growth
reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity is somewhat below its
historical trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased
by 242,000 and the unemployment rate was little unchanged at 4.9 percent in February. Considering recent
national economic conditions and movements of projected CBAI, the Chicago economy is expected to
continue its recovery trend over the next several months.
Chicago Business Activity Index
CBAI (Current: 99.3)
1 month 3 month 1 year
Historical (ago)
98.4
100.4
97.6
Forecast (ahead)
98.9
100.3
-
12
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREA LEAGUE TABLES
MSA LEAGUE TABLES SUMMARY*

Springfield (3rd to 9th) experienced the deepest fall in January 2016.

Peoria (2nd to 6th), Kankakee (5th to 8th) and Decatur (7th to 10th) also dropped in terms of
rank from last month.

The most remarkable upward move in January was recorded for Rockford (10th to 2nd).

In the 12-month growth league table, upward moves were recorded for Metro-East (4th to
1st), Rockford (6th to 2nd), Kankakee (7th to 3rd), Peoria (9th to 8th) and Davenport-Rock
Island-Moline (10th to 9th).

Downward moves were recorded for Chicago (1st to 4th), Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (2nd
to 5th), Springfield (3rd to 6th), Decatur (5th to 7th) and Bloomington-Normal (8th to 10th).

In the 12 months growth league table, Bloomington-Normal dropped to the last place while
Metro-East climbed to the first place.
*NOTE: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Illinois Department of Employment Security changed the way national and state
employment data are coordinated to be more consistent. As a result, there have been some significant changes in estimates for
Illinois over the past year.
13
MSA League Tables*: Non-farm Employment Growth Rate
Monthly growth:
Rank
December 2015
January 2016
Rank
Change**
1
Metro-East(-0.02%)
Metro-East(2.82%)
1
(+0)
2
Peoria(-0.19%)
Rockford (1.62%)
2
(+8)
3
Springfield (-0.24%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(0.98%)
3
(+6)
4
Chicago(-0.24%)
Chicago(0.35%)
4
(+0)
5
Kankakee(-0.31%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(0.11%)
5
(+1)
6
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul(-0.39%)
Peoria(0.03%)
6
(-4)
7
Decatur(-0.48%)
Bloomington-Normal(-0.25%)
7
(+1)
8
Bloomington-Normal(-0.56%)
Kankakee(-0.27%)
8
(-3)
9
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline(-0.56%)
Springfield (-0.43%)
9
(-6)
10
Rockford (-0.74%)
Decatur(-0.8%)
10
(-3)
Growth over last 12-months:
Rank
December 2015
January 2016
Rank
Change**
1
Chicago (1.31%)
Metro-East (3.47%)
1
(+3)
2
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1%)
Rockford (2.52%)
2
(+4)
3
Springfield (0.99%)
Kankakee (1.65%)
3
(+4)
4
Metro-East (0.76%)
Chicago (1.57%)
4
(-3)
5
Decatur (0.54%)
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul (1.02%)
5
(-3)
6
Rockford (0.45%)
Springfield (0.95%)
6
(-3)
7
Kankakee (0.43%)
Decatur (0.01%)
7
(-2)
8
Bloomington-Normal (0.14%)
Peoria (-0.34%)
8
(+1)
9
Peoria (-0.6%)
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-0.96%)
9
(+1)
10
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (-1.79%)
Bloomington-Normal (-1.2%)
10
(-2)
MSA League Tables are based on revised employment data. For instances of equal growth rate for multiple MSAs ranks
are decided based on change of growth rate from previous month.
*
14
Unemployment Claims (Initial)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, IL)
Unemployment Claims
(Initial, US)
40,000
1,200,000
Initial Claims (IL)
Initial Claims (US)
35,000
1,000,000
30,000
800,000
25,000
`
600,000
20,000
400,000
15,000
200,000
Jan/16
Jan/14
Jan/13
Jan/12
Jan/11
Jan/10
Jan/09
Jan/08
Jan/07
Jan/06
Jan/05
Jan/04
Jan/03
Jan/02
Jan/01
5,000
Jan/00
10,000
0
15