Illinois Job Index
Release
4/29/2016
Data
Jan 1990 / Mar 2016
Issue
2016.4
www.real.illinois.edu
For March 2016 Illinois Job Index, the nation, Illinois and RMW all had positive growth.
The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is
to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth
rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data
and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.
Feb 2015– Mar 2015

April
2016
Positive
Total non-farm
employment
Growth
Rate %
Nation
0.15
RMW
Illinois
Number of
Jobs
Last 12 months
Mar 2016
Growth
Rate%
Number of
Jobs
Shadow
U.R.*
215,000
1.99
2,802,000
10.15
0.13
26,400
1.62
321,100
9.53
0.25
14,700
1.35
79,900
9.29
*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the
average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.
Talking Points
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Illinois
Notes 
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Nation 
Notes
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Illinois added 14,700 jobs in March 2016, compared with a revised 18,600 job gain in February 2016.
Compared to March 2015, Illinois has added 79,900 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable
measure of labor market, showed an increase of 11,600 jobs per month.
The Nation added 215,000 jobs at a rate of 0.15%, compared with a revised 245,000 job gain in February
2016. The three-month moving average was up by 209,300 jobs per month.
The RMW added 26,400 jobs in March after a revised 35,700 job gain in February 2016. The three-month
moving average was up by 32,100 jobs per month.
The state of Illinois now has 23,800 more jobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession started.
Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 –
Construction, Manufacturing, and Information.
Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has
added 425,300 new jobs.
By March 2016 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both
recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show
that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Manufacturing and
Information.
The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.29%, 9.53% and 10.15%,
compared to official unemployment rates of 6.5%, 4.7% and 5.0%.
Through March 2016, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January
1990 stood at 14.06%, 18.08%, and 31.68%, respectively.
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 215,000 jobs. Sectors such as Leisure & hospitalities, Trade,
transportation & utilities and Education & health had major job growth.
The nation has recovered from the recent recession and added 5,361,000 additional jobs since the last
employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from
their respective peaks in 2000.
The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2016 were -0.01%, -0.24%, -0.38%, 0.09%, 0.13%,
0.11%, 0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12% and 0.19% respectively.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 1
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – March 2016
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
March 2016
Number of Jobs
143,774,000
20,181,200
6,009,000
Nation
RMW
Illinois
Current
Index to Jan 1990
131.68
118.08
114.06
Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990
126.57 (Dec-2007)
119.44 (Jun-2000)
115.08 (Nov-2000)
Changes in Jobs
since Jan 1990
34,590,000
3,090,600
740,700
Changes in Jobs
since Pervious Peak
5,361,000
-222,500
-45,000
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates April 2015 – March 2016
Apr/15
May/15
Jun/15
Jul/15
Aug/15
Sep/15
Oct/15
Nov/15
Dec/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
Mar/16
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.20%
Nation
RMW
IL
-0.30%
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 2
Barometer of Job Recovery
Illinois Recovery Scenarios
Growth Rate
To Recover
At the point of
2016 – March
At the point of
2010-June
In 5 years
11,500 jobs/year
91,300 jobs/year
In 8 years
7,200 jobs/year
57,100 jobs/year
In 10 years
5,700 jobs/year
45,700 jobs/year
In 15 years
3,800 jobs/year
30,400 jobs/year
* The figure 482,700 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point, Dec-2009 is 470,300. Adding 12,400, the
number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois
needs to create is 482,700.
**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.
*** The figure 425,300 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 through March 2016.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 3
Employment Growth Rate by Sector:
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, February 2016 – March 2016
20 Construction
30 Manufacturing
40 Trade, transportation & utilities
50 Information
55 Financial activities
60 Professional & business services
65 Education & health
70 Leisure & hospitality
80 Other Services
90 Government
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
Nation
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Sector
notes
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Illinois Jobs Index
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
RMW
2.50%
IL
Illinois posted positive change in March 2016 by adding 14,700 jobs. Six out of ten sectors recorded
net gains. Compared to February 2016, Construction (-1.19% to 1.90%) had a major performance
gain, while Other Services (1.07% to -0.08%) had a major performance loss. Government (0.16%
to 0.22%), Leisure & hospitality (0.48% to 1.07%), Financial activities (-0.16% to 0.85%) and
Information (-0.20% to -0.10%) also experienced performance gains, while Education & health
(0.18% to 0.15%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.45% to 0.23%) and Manufacturing (0.21%
to -0.54%) also experienced net loss in performance.
In March at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 40,000 (0.26%)
o Trade, transportation & utilities: 51,000 (0.19%)
o Education & health: 51,000 (0.23%)
The only sector that lost jobs at the national level was:
o Manufacturing: -29,000 (-0.24%)
For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors in March were:
o Leisure & hospitality: 6,300 (1.07%)
o Construction: 4,100 (1.90%)
o Financial activities: 3,200 (0.85%)
The top-three sectors that lost jobs in March for Illinois were:
o Manufacturing: -3,100 (-0.54%)
o Professional & business services: -1,400 (-0.15%)
o Other services: -200 (-0.08%)
For Illinois, three sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment
levels, Manufacturing has shed 347,100 jobs, Construction is down 10,900 jobs and Information
has 32,000 fewer jobs.
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 4
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – March 2016
Illinois
vs.
RMW
Nation
Rate
Rate
Construction
vs. RMW
-
Nation
-
Number of Jobs
-10,900
Rate %
-4.73
%
17.72
%
23.05
Manufacturing
-
-
-347,100
-37.63
-24.08
-30.94
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-
-
62,500
5.44
8.48
20.06
Information
-
-
-32,000
-24.56
-19.87
3.90
Financial activities
-
-
8,200
2.20
18.14
24.92
Professional & business services
-
-
349,300
61.07
75.38
85.95
Education & health
-
-
383,700
72.52
75.16
109.12
Leisure & hospitality
+
-
209,700
54.62
38.72
66.43
Other Services
-
-
49,100
23.88
25.47
34.54
Government
-
-
77,800
10.30
10.72
21.66
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – March 2016
Job Changes in
Recession Period*
Job Changes in
Jan 2010-Mar
2016
Recovery Rate
Forecasted Job
Changes Jan 2010March 2017
Forecasted
Recovery Rate
Construction
-63,800
15,600
24.45%
21,500
33.70%
Manufacturing
-114,600
20,400
17.80%
16,400
14.31%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
-97,700
90,200
92.32%
98,000
100.31%
Information
-11,300
-6,100
-53.98%
-8,500
-75.22%
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health
-32,600
-92,300
33,800
7,900
147,900
92,300
24.23%
160.24%
-
20,200
157,600
111,100
61.96%
170.75%
-
Leisure & hospitality
-22,300
81,700
366.37%
92,500
414.80%
Other services
-5,900
-1,300
-22.03%
400
6.78%
6,000
-23,600
-
-20,600
-
Government
*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

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Recovery
by Sector
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Illinois Jobs Index
During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors
experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors
that had positive job growth during the recession.
Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing, Trade,
transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure &
hospitality have recovered 24.45%, 17.80%, 92.32%, 24.23%, 160.24% and 366.37%
respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
By March 2016, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered
to their previous employment peak levels.
However, the recovery rates for Information and Other Services are still negative, namely 53.98% and -22.03%.
The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will
increase for every sector except Manufacturing and Information.
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 5
Construction
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Manufacturing
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
1.90
4,100
RMW
0.06
500
Nation
0.56
37,000
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.54
-3,100
RMW
-0.27
-7,400
Nation
-0.24
-29,000
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
National
RMW
IL
60.00
50.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU)
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.23
2,800
RMW
0.06
2,400
Nation
0.19
51,000
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 6
Information
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.10
-100
RMW
-0.18
-500
Nation
0.04
1,000
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
National
RMW
IL
70.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Financial activities
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.85
3,200
RMW
0.09
1,000
Nation
0.18
15,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Professional & business services
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.15
-1,400
RMW
0.56
14,100
Nation
0.16
33,000
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 7
Education & health
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.15
1,400
RMW
0.17
5,500
Nation
0.23
51,000
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Leisure & hospitality
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
1.07
6,300
RMW
0.09
1,800
Nation
0.26
40,000
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
90.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other Services
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
-0.08
-200
RMW
0.37
3,100
Nation
0.14
8,000
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
100.00
National
RMW
IL
95.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 8
Government
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
Feb 2016 - Mar 2016
%
Change
Number of
Jobs
Illinois
0.22
1,800
RMW
0.22
6,500
Nation
0.09
20,000
130.00
125.00
120.00
115.00
110.00
105.00
National
RMW
IL
100.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public
Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern
economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More
information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.
Illinois Jobs Index
release 4/29/2016
www.real.illinois.edu
page 9