Climate Communication in Broadcast Meteorology
A Workshop on Science and Storytelling
Climate Change Essentials
Rick Oches
David Szymanski
Thom Davis
Department of Natural & Applied Sciences
September 20, 2014
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J.
Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
“The U.S. faces significant and diverse economic risks from climate
change. The signature effects of human-induced climate change –
rising seas, increased damage from storm surge, more frequent
bouts of extreme heat – all have specific, measurable impacts on
our nation’s current assets and ongoing economic activity.”
(Risky Business Project, 2014)
http://riskybusiness.org
http://www.globalchange.gov/
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/index.shtml
WEATHER vs. CLIMATE
 Weather describes short-term atmospheric conditions and the
spatial distribution of:
 Temperature
 Humidity
 Wind speed
 Precipitation
 Atmos. Pressure
 Sunshine
 Clouds
 Storms
 Frontal systems
 Climate is the long-term average of weather conditions in a region,
over time.
 Climate change refers to altered patterns of weather over decades
– warming, cooling, rain, snow, storm tracks, etc.
Global Warming or Climate Change?
 Global average temperature is an index of the state of the global
climate.
 Temperature change through time is not uniform across the globe.
While often referred to as global warming, climate scientists
recognize that changing atmospheric conditions impact many
components of Earth Systems.
U.S. Temperature Change, 1901 - 2012
 Therefore, it is more accurate
to refer to the range of impacts
as global climate change.
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/ourchanging-climate/recent-us-temperature-trends
For 4.6 billion years,
Earth’s climate has
been changing.
What’s different
in the last century?
• Rate of change
• Role of Humans
National Climate Assessment, 2014:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/overview/overview#intro-section
Greenhouse Effect and Global Energy Balance
Cubasch, U., D.., et al., 2013: Introduction. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New
York, NY, USA. (Figure 1.1)
Greenhouse Effect and Global Energy Balance
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Nitrogen (N2)
Oxygen (O2)
Argon (Ar)
78.084%
20.946%
0.9340%
= 99.964%
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Neon (Ne)
Helium (He)
Methane (CH4)
Krypton (Kr)
Hydrogen (H2)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Xenon (Xe)
Ozone (O3)
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
400 ppm
18.18 ppm
5.24 ppm
1.79 ppm
1.14 ppm
0.55 ppm
0.325 ppm
0.1 ppm
0.09 ppm
0.0 to 0.07 ppm
0.02 ppm
0.0002 ppm
Composition
of Earth’s
Atmosphere
+ Water vapor (H2O) ~0.40% overall; 1%–4% at surface
Relative Strengths of
Warming & Cooling
Influences
2014 National Climate Assessment
http://www.globalchange.gov/
Changes in Greenhouse Gases
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Temperature & CO2 Fluctuations:
800,000 year Antarctic Ice-Core
NAS, 2014, Climate Change: Evidence and Causes
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Globally averaged land & ocean surface temperature anomaly
1880 – 2012
+ 0.85 °C
+ 1.5 °F
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Long-term Warming & Short-term Variation
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Observational (historical)
evidence of climate change:
• Arctic sea ice extent
• Northern hemisphere
snow cover
• Ocean heat content
• Global sea-level rise
NAS, 2014, Climate Change: Evidence and Causes
Observational (historical) evidence of climate change:
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
NAS, 2014, Climate Change: Evidence and Causes
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Observational (historical) evidence of climate change:
Northern hemisphere snow cover
NAS, 2014, Climate Change: Evidence and Causes
Observational (historical) evidence of climate change:
Ocean heat content
NAS, 2014, Climate Change: Evidence and Causes
Observational (historical) evidence of climate change:
Global sea-level rise
NAS, 2014, Climate Change: Evidence and Causes
Observed U.S. Temperature Changes
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Extreme Precipitation Events
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Distinguishing Human & Natural Forcing
of Climate Change
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Observed & Modeled
Temperature Variations
Conclusion:
Only human influence can explain
recent warming.
IPCC, 2013 WG1-AR5 TS
Projections for the Future
 Simulating future climate conditions requires complex computer
modeling and projections of future greenhouse gas emissions.
• B1 scenario – assumes gradual increases in greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, followed by significant reductions beginning in 2050.
o
Models project ~ 4F average temperature increase in U.S. by 2100.
• A2 scenario – assumes continued increases in GHG emissions throughout
this century.
o
Models project ~ 7F average temperature increase in U.S. by 2100.
• Models also simulate
changes in:
o
o
o
o
o
o
Soil moisture
Seasonal precipitation
Sea level rise
Weather extremes
Melting ice
Other parameters
Projected U.S. Temperature Change, 1990 - 2100
Future Temperature Projections
RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway
American Climate Prospectus, 2014 (http://riskybusiness.org )
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
Past & Projected Changes in Global Sea Level
2014 National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/
American Climate Prospectus, 2014 (http://riskybusiness.org )
Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
 U.S. Average temperatures have risen by 1.5 F since about 1900.
• 80% of that warming has been in the last 4 decades.
 Recent climate change is already impacting ecosystems, agriculture,
water resources, global sea level, communities, infrastructure, and
human health:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Decreased air quality, amplifying asthma, allergies, and respiratory problems
Increased weeds, disease, and insect stresses on agricultural production
Accelerated glacier and ice sheet melting; reduced sea ice cover
Ecosystem disruptions, species migrations, and extinctions
Increased frequency and intensity of wildfires
Longer and more severe droughts
More extreme weather events
Oceans becoming more acidic
Accelerated sea-level rise and increased coastal flooding
2014 - New report by economists
and scientists quantifies the impacts
of climate change on macroeconomic
activity in the U.S.
• Model and assess cost impacts of
climate change on six key economic
impact categories:
o Commodity agriculture
o Labor productivity
o Heat-related mortality
o Crime
o Energy demand
o Coastal storm-related damages
http://riskybusiness.org
• Present principles of climate risk management for
investors, policy makers, businesses, and households.
Climate Communication in Broadcast Meteorology
A Workshop on Science and Storytelling
AT EACH TABLE:
• List 5 issues that you believe are
common misconceptions among the
public regarding climate change.
• Highlight those that you find most
difficult to explain or dispel.
Climate Communication in Broadcast Meteorology
A Workshop on Science and Storytelling
 Online Resources:

U.S. National Climate Assessment, 2014
• http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), 2013-14
• http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

Risky Business Project, 2014 (economic analysis of climate change)
• http://riskybusiness.org

American Academy for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
• http://whatweknow.aaas.org

National Academy of Sciences – Climate Change Reports
• http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/events/a-discussion-onclimate-change-evidence-and-causes/
• http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/more-resources-onclimate-change/climate-change-lines-of-evidence-booklet/