Updating the Golden Horseshoe
Plan: Lessons from Below
March, 2016
Gerrit-Jan Knaap
National Center for Smart Growth
University of Maryland
Places to Grow:
An Award-Winning Plan
•
•
•
•
•
Urban Growth Boundary
Greenbelt Plan
Centers and Corridors
Intensification Targets
Performance Monitoring
But Growth may Rapidly Accellerate
And all Plans Need Revision
A View from the US suggests…
• Places to Grow is a well-conceived plan, much
admired in the United States, and embodies the
most advanced planning principles of the
1990s.
• But much has changed in metropolitan
planning since 2006, including:
– the issues now addressed in metropolitan plans,
– the technological changes that metro plans must
anticipate, and
– the tools and processes now used by leading
metropolitan planners.
Three Issues in Contemporary
Metropolitan Planning
1. Whereas metropolitan plans once focused
largely on transportation and land use,
contemporary plans now must address in a
serious way
a. Economic Development
b. Social Equity, and
c. Climate Change
Three Issues in Contemporary
Metropolitan Planning
2. Advances in technology have the potential to
dramatically alter the structure and function
of metropolitan regions. Key elements of this
technology include:
a. Autonomous vehicles
b. Smart City technologies
c. Real time monitoring systems.
Three Issues in Contemporary
Metropolitan Planning
3. Integrated models that address the economy,
transportation, land use, air emissions, water
quality, public health and more have become
key features of contemporary practice in
metropolitan planning.
These tools are increasingly used to conduct
exploratory scenarios instead of simple
land use scenarios.
Metropolitan Planning in the US
• MPO Constrained Long-Range Transportation
Plans
• Portland Metro 2040 Plan
• California Blue Print Plans
• California Senate Bill 375
• HUD-DOT-EPA Partnership
• Regional Plans for Sustainable Development
• Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act
(FAST)
The Imperative of Economic
Development
• Economic
Development has now
become an important
issue metropolitan
planners must
address.
Industries Concentrate Spatially
Employment Clusters Matter
• 1.2% of land
• 38.8% of all jobs
• Compared to the rest of the state, Maryland’s
Economic Centers feature—
– High employment densities
– High industrial diversity
– High relative wages
– High employment growth
– High share of total trips
– High transit share of trips
– Longer trip lengths.
Commute Sheds as Planning Units
Determinants of Job Growth
in Maryland’s Economic Centers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
# firms in the same industry
# firms in different industry
Average firm size
Property Value
Average Peak Hour Speed
Distance from Highway ramp
Distance from Highway
Distance from Nearest Bus Stop
Within half mile of transit station
(+)
(+)
(-)
(-)
(+)
(-)
(-)
(-)
(+)
Inequality Is not JustIssue a
Campaign
Neighborhoods Matter
• A growing body
of research
suggests that
the
neighborhood
in which one
lives has a
major impact
on one’s life’s
fortunes.
The Geography of Opportunity
Opportunity Not Equally Accessible
Opportunity Not Equally Accessible
Opportunity Remains Ill Defined
Opportunity Remains Ill defined
Climate Change can no Longer be
Ignored
• Led by California Senate Bill 375, greenhouse
gas emissions have become a key parametric
target in metropolitan planning.
Buildings: Another major source
of GHG
Models
Reduction in From All Sectors Necessary to
Approach GHG Targets
Annual Carbon Equivalent Outputs (Mt)
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
37.0
Energy Sector Emissions
28.9
Building Emissions
21.2
40.0
21.7
16.8
7.9
20.0
37.6
32.4
24.0
0.0
2007
2020 Climate Action Plan
Source: MD State Stat, BEM and MEM Models
2030 Business as Usual
Mobile Emissions
A Multi-Sectoral Approach is
Necessary
Autonomous Vehicles are
Coming
Modeling the Impacts of AVs:
NHTSA Levels of Automation
Level 0
No automation
Steering and
braking by driver
Level 1
Single function
automation
Car controls
steering or brakes
Level 2
Combined function Car controls
automation
steering and
brakes
Driver ready to take
control
Level 3
Limited selfdriving
automation
Car controls
steering and
brakes
Ample warning,
Driver involvement in
rare condition
Level 4
Full self-driving
automation
Car can drive itself
empty
No driver
involvement
ARC Model Assumptions
• Fuel efficiency
– Based on the trend in CAFE standards and annual
energy outlook by U.S. Energy Information
Administration
– CAFE standards: 54.5 mpg in model year 2025
– Extrapolated to 2040 (light and heavy duty)
– Additional fuel economy due to efficient operation of
autonomous vehicle
– Result in a reduction in overall vehicle operating cost
Model Assumptions
• Increased roadway capacity
– CACC/V2V communications
– Tighter spacing between AVs due to short P/R times
– Steady flows with limited traffic interruptions (in high
speed?)
– Depends on market penetration levels
• Level 4 - 100% market penetration in 2040
Scenarios
• Incremental
Scenario
2040 NB
C
•
baseline
capacity
increase
CT
•
capacity
increase
•
decrease in
travel time
disutility
CTO
CTOP
•
capacity increase
•
capacity increase
•
decrease in travel •
time disutility
decrease in travel
time disutility
•
reduction in
vehicle operating
cost
•
reduction in
vehicle operating
cost
•
reduction in
parking cost
Model Results
Model Results
Model Results
Model Results
Other Potential Impacts
• Empty vehicle VMT due to self-parking
• Possible reduction in vehicle ownership due to
efficient use of vehicle
• AV availability to non-driving younger
population
• Availability of AVs for 0-car households
• A number of other potential impacts driven by
autonomous vehicle
Smart Cities are the Future
Smart City Elements
Each core system can be made ‘smarter’
System
Elements
Instrumentation
City services
 Public service management
 Local government
administration
People
 Health and education
 Public safety
 Government services
Business
 Business environment
 Administrative burdens
Transport
 Cars, roads
 Public transport
 Airports, seaports
Communication
 Broadband, wireless
 Phones, computers
Water
 Sanitation
 Freshwater supplies
 Seawater
Energy
40
40
 Oil, gas
 Renewable
 Nuclear
A Vision for Smarter Cities | April 2009
Establishment of local
authority management
information system
Patient diagnostic
and screening
devices
Data gathering on use
of specific online
business services
Measuring traffic
flows and toll use
Data gathering via
mobile phones
Gather data for water
quality monitoring
Fit sensors to gather
data on usage across
the energy system
Interconnection
Interconnected service
delivery
Interconnect records for
doctors, hospitals and
other health providers
Interconnect stakeholders
across city’s business
system
Integrated traffic,
weather and traveller
information services
Intelligence
Immediate and joined-up
service provision
Patient driven preemptive care
Customised service
delivery for businesses
Interconnect mobile
phones, fixed line,
broadband
Real-time road
pricing
Information for
consumers on city
services in real time,
on their own time
Interconnect
businesses, ports,
energy users of water
Real-time quality,
flood and drought
response
Interconnect appliances
and devices between
energy consumers and
providers
Optimise the use of
the system and
balance use across
time
Monitoring for Smart Urban Growth
• Traditional Practice in Land Use Planning
– Make plan, implement plan, make new plan
• Land Use as an Inventory
Problem
• Big Data and Linked
Information Systems
• The Potential for Monitoring
in Plan Implementation.
7/25/2016
The Land Development Process
STATES
TRANSITION EVENTS
Farmland
Land Sale
Vacant
Tract
Serviced Tract
Macro infrastructure
services
Subdivision
Subdivided
Lots
Micro infrastructure services
Serviced
Lots
House construction
7/25/2016
Dwelling Units
1990
1993
1996
An Inventory Interpretation of
Land Use Change in Hillsboro,
Oregon, 1990-1996
7/25/2016
End State vs. Exploratory Mindset
1. End state planning: Testing the effects of TLU Alternatives vs. Trends
on Selected Outcomes….in order to choose an optimal future TLU plan
2. Exploratory planning: Testing the effects of Multiple Trends on Many
Outcomes including TLU….in order to adopt the most resilient strategies
Basic End State Scenario Process w/PSS
Analyze
Context
Build
Scenarios
1
2
Project
Baseline
Trends
3A
Create
Other
Alts
3B
Assess
Impacts
4
Revise
Policies,
Actions
5A
Target
Desired
outcome
5B
Methods
Extrapolation of trends,
markets, public
engagement, planning
visions
Create/tweak
indicators,
algorithms
Public
engagement,
Planning
visions
Tools
INDEX, Place3S, CViz,
ET+, UF, etc.
Charrettes, task forces,
Delphi etc.
Execute
Actions,
Plans
6
Monitor
and
Adjust
7
Adopt Plans,
ordinances etc.
Capital, operating
budgets, incentives
etc.
Best Practices in Exploratory Scenario
Planning
Analyze
Context
Build
Scenarios
1
2
Methods
Analysis of Driving
Forces, likelihood &
impact
Tools
STEEP framework
Project
Baseline
Trends
3A
Create
Other
Alts
3B
Assess
Impacts
4
Revise
Policies,
Actions
5A
Target
Desired
outcome
5B
Execute
Actions,
Plans
6
Monitor
and
Adjust
7
Literature, Experts,
Stakeholders
Public engagement,
Planning visions
Revisit
indicators,
targets etc.
None often; SHAPING
TOMORROW, Factr,
Sensemaker,
Futurescaper, Cotunity, SHARPCLOUD
Task forces, Delphi etc.
Revisit
investments,
incentives
etc.
Contingent Process: Analysis of Driving
Forces (Trends and Factors)
Organize analysis of trends by Societal, Technological,
Economic, Political, Environmental (STEPE)
Decide which are Givens vs. Indeterminate
Organize Indeterminates by Likelihood and Impact
Use highest likelihood and biggest impact
Indeterminates and biggest impact Givens to structure
the Driving Forces parts of the Scenarios
Developing Useful Scenarios
• Driving forces
– Impactful on the future of the region
– Certain in regional importance
– Uncertain in strength and or direction
– Plausible to occur in next 25 years
– Outside the control of state, regional, and local
leadership
• Scenarios
– Scenarios should be at the far reaches of the
plausible in order to emphasize the various
impacts of different directions for the region
Broad Driving Forces and Uncertainties
Emerge - PRESTO
Broad Driving Forces
Outside Uncertainties
Global Warming
Degree of global warming
Sea level rise
Manufacturing/3D Printing
Work Habits/Telecommuting
Social preferences
Number of immigrants
Rate of aging
Family structure preferences
Federal taxation policy
Other federal policies
Federal pricing policies
Federal funding policies
Self-driving car – rate of introduction
Price of oil/gas
National pricing policies
Zero EV adoption
National clean energy adoption rate
Biodiesel impact of land use
Building efficiency
Segregation preferences
Urban/Suburban preferences
Federal education policies – free community college
Online tools
Federal standards
Federal spending
PANAMAX
Internet Technology
Population Structure
Macro: Immigration and aging
Micro: Family Structure
Equity
Transportation Technology and Policy
Energy Technology and Policy
Location Preferences
Education
Industry and Employment Structure
6
PRESTO Scenarios
Blue Planet
Revenge of the
Nerds
Last Call at the Oasis
Ashes and
Diamonds
Technological
Green technology
development driven by
high carbon prices
Underestimation of
technology; Embrace
of technology; Profit
driven tech
Green technology
embraced but does not
advance significantly
Technological
progresses at
expected rate
Economic
Strong economy drives
up fossil fuel demand;
Aligns with green
economy
Strong economy
follows technological
development
Resource scarcity raises
prices of fuel, water, and
food -> impacts families
Inequality deepens;
Economy eventually
slows because of
inequality
Political
Federal government
surplus from strong
economy
Tax receipts increase
from strong economy;
tech elites dominate
Acceptance of direct
government intervention;
Ecology > economy
Deregulation, low
taxes prevails;
Economic elites
dominate
Social
Spirit of disruption and
innovation directed to
environmental and
social concerns.
Spirit of disruption and Localism; Sense of
innovation directed to stewardship
profits; Fast
technological adoption
Libertarian social
thinking prominent
Environmental
Fossil fuel resources
insufficient for demand
Delayed reaction to
environmental
concerns
Resources abundant;
environment
degrading
Deep scarcity; particularly
water and fossil fuel
The Four Scenarios
Fossil Fuel Fossil
Tech.
Inter.
Fossil Tech.
Tech.Gov.Gov.
Gov.
Fossil
Tech.
Gov.
Prices
Impact
Fuel
Fuel Impact
Impact Inter.
Inter.
Fuel
Impact
Inter.
Prices
Prices
Prices
Last Call
LastatCall High
Low
High
High
HighHigh Low
Low
High
Last Call at the theHigh
Low
High
Oasis
at the
Oasis
Oasis
High
Blue Planet High
Blue Planet
High
Ashes and
Diamonds
High
High
High
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Ashes and
Diamonds
Low
Low
Low
Revenge of the
Nerds
Low
High
Medium
The PRESTO Modeling Framework
Scenario Drivers
Scenario Models
Economic
Assumptions
Demographic,
Societal, Equity
Assumptions
Technological
Assumptions
Political
Assumptions
Environmental
Assumptions
Inforum-National
Econometric
Model
Transportation MSTM Travel
Demand Model
Mobile
Emissions
Model
Growth –
SILO Land Use
Model
Building
Emissions
and Energy
Model
Air Quality
Model
Public
Health
Model
Chesapeake
Bay Land
Cover Model
Water
Quality
Model
Revenge of the
Nerds
Blue Planet
Base
Vehicle Operating
Cost
ZEV Rate in 2040
8.4
20%
2.1
27%
16.8
72%
Ashes and
Diamonds
4.2
12%
Last Call at the
Oasis
33.6
51%
Rail Miles
466
466
729
466
601
Rail Stations
226
226
373
226
327
3,571
3,571
3,571
4,007
3,571
3,600
5,400
3,600
3,600
3,600
3,600
4,500
3,600
3,600
3,600
Total Employment
7,944,954
8,062,116
8,073,780
7,833,538
7,836,177
Core Employment
1,754,648
1,754,648
2,289,085
1,635,119
2,243,706
3,026,364
3,026,994
3,020,605
2,999,794
2,908,904
1,055,968
1,095,529
921,733
1,029,379
891,465
1,733,872
1,861,193
2,312,138
6,313,095
2,299,831
192,208
208,217
460,840
681,768
595,100
381,589
451,709
664,987
1,193,890
742,894
355,246
460,877
381,481
1,333,365
324,269
Limited Access
Highway Miles
Hihgway Lane
Capacity
Arterial Lane
Capacity
Suburban
Employment
Exurban
Employment
Development
Capacity
Core Development
Capacity
Suburban
Development
Capacity
Exurban
Development
Capacity
Results Relative to Baseline Scenario
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
Household Growth
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Vehicle Hours Traveled
Transit Ridership
Carbon from Buildings*
Carbon from Vehicles
NoX
VoC
Forest Land Impacted
Farm Land Impacted
Revenge of the Nerds
Blue Planet
Ashes and Diamonds
Last Call at the Oasis
60.0%
Concluding Comments
• The Golden Horseshoe region has an
international reputation for good planning and
effective plan implementation.
• Places to Grow has served as a useful
framework and international model for over a
decade.
• But times change, and all plans need revision.
• Both the context and processes of metropolitan
planning have changed dramatically.
• I look forward to seeing the next iteration of
Places to Grow.