Ron Plain April 22, 2015 Source: USDA/ERS Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 Jan 05 Jan 04 Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 01 Jan 00 U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2015 Cents Per Pound 450 400 350 300 250 200 Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2015 $ Per Live Cwt 80 Actual 75 Forecast 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Marketing Month Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 35 U.S. Hog Imports from Canada Head per mo. 800,000 Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Source: USDA/ERS 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 0 U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, 2006-2015 % of Production 30 Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent 25 20 15 Imports 10 Exports 5 Jan 06 APR JUL OCT Jan 07 APR JUL OCT Jan 08 APR JUL OCT Jan 09 Apr Jul Oct Jan 10 Apr Jul Oct Jan 11 Apr Jul Oct Jan 12 Apr Jul Oct Jan 13 Apr Jul Oct Jan 14 Apr Jul Oct 2015 0 Source: USDA/ERS 250 200 0 4-15 5-06 5-27 6-16 7-07 7-28 8-18 9-08 9-29 10-20 11-10 12-01 12-22 01-12 02-02 02-23 03-16 04-06 04-27 05-18 06-08 06-29 07-20 08-10 08-31 09-21 10-12 11-02 11-23 12-14 01/04 01/25 02/15 03/08 New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by Week NAHLN Reports New Cases 350 300 PDCoV PEDV 150 100 50 2013-2015 Week Ending Source: AASV & NAHLN U.S. Pigs per Litter by Month Head 10.6 10.4 Pigs per litter: 10.2 Dec-Feb 14: - 5.5% 10 Dec-Feb 15: +6.7% 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9 Source: USDA/NASS 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 8.6 2003 8.8 Barrow & Gilt Live Weights Iowa-Minnesota Weekly Average Pounds 290 2013 285 2014 280 record 2015 275 270 2014 average was 284.4 lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013 Source: USDA/AMS DE C V NO CT O SE P G AU L JU N JU AY M AP R AR M FE B JA N 265 Thou. Head 2400 HOG SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 2014 hog slt - 4.6% 2015 YTD slt + 6.8% 1800 1700 1600 JAN APR Avg. 2009-13 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center JUL 2014 OCT 2015 H-S-05 04/17/15 March Hog Inventory All Hogs & Pigs Kept for Breeding Kept for Marketing 107.2 102.2 107.7 Under 50 lbs 50-119 lbs. 120-179 lbs. 180 lbs. and over 109.4 106.6 106.0 108.9 Jun-Aug Farrowings Sep-Nov Farrowings Dec-Feb Farrowings Mar-May Farrowing Intentions Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions 103.5 103.3 102.4 102.1 97.9 Source: USDA - NASS -6 Source: USDA/NASS DJF15 DJF14 DJF13 DJF12 DJF11 DJF10 DJF09 DJF08 DJF07 DJF06 DJF05 DJF04 DJF03 DJF02 DJF01 DJF00 DJF99 Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S. % change from yr. ago 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 $ Per Cwt. 135 BARROW AND GILT PRICES Iowa – So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 55 45 JAN APR JUL Avg. 2009-13 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center OCT 2014 2015 H-P-09 04/13/15 Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds 2013 2014 2015 ------ Change -----2013-14 2014-15 Qtr 1 5,777 5,785 6,155 + 0.1% + 6.4% Qtr 2 5,519 5,504 5,720* - 0.3% + 3.9% Qtr 3 5,622 5,423 5,915* - 3.6% + 9.1% Qtr 4 6,274 6,132 6,450* - 2.3% + 5.2% Year 23,187 22,844 24,240* - 1.5% + 6.1% *Forecast Source: USDA - OCE Iowa-Minn. Hog Price Forecast Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight 2012 2013 2014 2015 Qtr 1 $84.78 $80.17 $ 95.15 $64.10 Qtr 2 $85.45 $89.33 $115.67 $68-72* Qtr 3 $83.15 $95.37 $111.79 $68-72* Qtr 4 $79.93 $82.36 $ 88.65 $62-66* Year $83.36 $86.87 $102.83 $66-70* *Forecast price – prior day purchased Net Slaughter Hog Price, Monthly Average 2002-2015 Dollars per cwt. 150 Cash Futures 130 110 90 70 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 Jan 05 Jan 04 Jan 03 30 Jan 02 50 Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015 Iowa State University Calculations $ Per Head 100 Actual Forecast 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 -60 2006 -40