Predicting our Climate Future
Human
Activities and
Lifestyles
GHG
Emissions
Climate
Change Model
Social Science Oriented
• Social influences
• Human behavior
• Affluence
• Diet/food,
• geography influences
• Political aspects
• Isolation/globalization
• Economic drivers
• Environmental regulations
• Technology and its implementation
• Energy efficiency
• Alternative energy sources
Predicted
climate changes
(Precipitation, Temp.
etc.)
Earth Science Oriented
• Physics
• Chemistry
• Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric processes
Emission scenarios
• Need to define GHG emission “scenarios” to
project what our lives and activities will be for
the next century.
– What are the possible economic scenarios?
– What changes will we have in our society?
• How do these changes influence emissions?
IPCC SRES
• Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
• Developed “stories” that would define the
range of possible social systems that we may
develop through the 21st century
– Economic growth
– Population growth
– Technology development and adoption
– Commitment to the environment
– Globalization
A: Economic Focus
A1: Global,
Economically Oriented
A2: Regional,
Economically oriented
 Population growth and decline
 Population growth
 Technological advances applied  Technological advances,
globally
resource consumption and
 Equity in economic development
cultural differences among
among regions
regions
 Extensive fossil fuel use in A1FI
scenario
 Rapid technology development to
reduce fossil fuels (A1T)
by 2100:
o 15 billion population
by 2100:
o $250 trillion GDP
o 7 billion population
o ~850 ppm CO2
o $550 trillion GDP
o ~970 ppm CO2 (A1FI),
(720 ppm for A1B)
B: Environmental Focus
B1: Global, Environmentally
oriented
B2: Regional,
Environmentally oriented
by 2100:
o 7 billion population
o $350 trillion GDP
o estimated 550 ppm CO2
by 2100:
o 10 billion population,
o $250 trillion GDP
o ~600 PPM CO2
 global solutions to economic,
social, and environmental
sustainability
 no additional climate initiatives
 service and information oriented
economy
 reductions in material intensity
 clean and resource-efficient
technologies
 local solutions to economic,
social, and environmental
sustainability
 economic equity within regions,
but not between regions
 less rapid and more diverse
technological changes
 global policies for climate change
mitigation
Emissions profiles for IPCC scenarios
Climate Modeling Results for
IPCC Scenarios
A1B
A1FI
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Climate Modeling Results for
IPCC Scenarios
A1B
A1FI
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Model predictions
IPCC scenarios
350.org
IPCC scenarios
IPCC Data
• Visualization of IPCC climate model results
– http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/