Agricultural
Manufacturing
Service
• Demographic Transition Model: A four stage model
that shows a similar process of population change in all
societies over time…Has a predictive capability for
economic and population growth
• Every country is at some stage
• The model is irreversible…you do not go back
• There is a theoretical 5th stage
Demographic Transition Model
Pre-Agriculture
DMT-Stage 1: Low Growth
• Characteristics of Stage 1:
• Very high CBR and CDR cancel each other
out and low life expectancy
• Almost no natural increase rate due to
climate, warfare, disease and ecological
factors.
• Most of human history spent in stage
one…pre-industrial society based on
subsistence farming and seasonal migration
(transhumance).
• Countries in Stage 1:
• No country is here today, but some SubSaharan African countries are right on the
boundary between the first and second
stage…Many people still live in stage 1
conditions
Stage
CBR
CDR
Life Expectancy
NIR/RNI
1
High (25-40)
High (25-40)
Low (33-50)
Low-Moderate
(-0.1-1.9%)
DMT-Stage 2: High Growth
• Characteristics of Stage 2:
• Rapidly declining CDR but CBR remains high
and very high NIR/RNI
• Improved agriculture and health care
dropped CDR.
• Mid-18th to Late 19th Century, the Industrial
Revolution pushed countries in Europe as well as
the U.S., Japan, and Australia into Stage 2.
• First time in world history to have significant
growth
• LDCs entered Stage 2 around 1950 when
MDCs diffuse improved medical tech (vaccines)
to LDCs.
• Countries in Stage 2:
• Most of Africa in stage 2 today as well as
some countries in Asia…Periphery
countries/LDCs
Stage
CBR
CDR
Life Expectancy
NIR/RNI
2
High (25-40)
Decreasing
(8-25)
Increasing
(<70)
Low-Moderate
(1.5-3.5%)
DMT-Stage 3: Moderate Growth
• Characteristics of Stage 3:
• CBR rapidly declines and CDR continues to
decline slowly. NIR begins to moderate
• CBR drops because of social customs –
access to birth control, infant mortality rate
drops, women in work force, kids become
economic drain
• MDC countries today entered during the
first half of 20th Century
• Countries in Stage 3:
• Asia and parts of Latin America moved
here in recent years
• Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) or
Semi-Periphery are in a transition phase
between Stage 2 and 3…i.e. Brazil
Stage
CBR
CDR
Life Expectancy
NIR/RNI
3
Lowering
(12-20)
Low (5-12)
Higher(<78)
Lowering
(0.5-1.2%)
DMT-Stage 4: Low Growth
• Characteristics of Stage 4:
• Very low CBR and CDR produce almost no
long-term natural increase and possibly a
decrease
• Zero pop growth: CBR and CDR are equal
• TFR of 2.1 produces zero growth
• Countries in Stage 4
• Most European countries in stage 4 today
• The United States is in a transition zone
between Stage 3 and 4…we have
characteristics of both
• Countries with negative NIR…Russia and Japan
(shrinking) on track for stage 5.
Stage
CBR
CDR
Life Expectancy
NIR/RNI
4
Low (8-16)
Low (5-12)
Highest (<82)
Low-Negative
(-0.8 to -0.6%)
• In future if higher CDR than CBR then population decline will occur.
• If a country stays in stage 5 without migration it will eventually cease
to exist
• Countries in Stage 5:
• Japan, Sweden and Russia are possible candidates that are close to
entering the stage.
DMT-Stage 5: Decline
• Characteristics of Stage 5:
• Model has 2 big breaks w/ the past
• First break: sudden drop in death rate (stage 2) from technology and has
taken place everywhere
• Second break: sudden drop in birth rate (stage 3) comes from changing
social customs and has not taken place everywhere
• Population growth or decline is directly tied to the socio-economic
condition of the country and takes into consideration the need for
children (a necessity or a luxury)
Generalities of the Model
• No one in stage 1… only a few have reached stage 4