Slide 1
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Sociology 640
Class 9:
Divorce
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Slide 2
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Overview of Class
Trends in divorce in the U.S.
Measurement issues
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Explanations for divorce
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Consequences of divorce
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Slide 3
Trends in Divorce - Figure 1
Divorce Rate, Per 1,000 Married Women 15+
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25
20
15
10
5
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19
40
19
43
19
46
19
49
19
52
19
55
19
58
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
0
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Slide 4
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Trends in Divorce - Figure 2
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Percent Ending in Divorce
Percent of Marriages Ending in Divorce, Men
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
44
43
44
44
43
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37
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1970
1975
1980
1983
1988
1995
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Slide 5
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Measurement Issues in Sociology
• Period measures vs. cohort measures
– Advantages and disadvantages
• Real cohorts vs. hypothetical cohorts
– Advantages and disadvantages
• Common examples of hypothetical cohort
measures
– Life expectancy, Fertility, Experience of divorce,
Pct. of lifetime spent in different types of
households, etc. etc.
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Slide 6
Hypothetical vs. Real Cohorts
D
u
r
a
t
I
o
n
Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Hypothetical
Cohort
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Real Cohort
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Slide 7
Cross-national Comparisons of Divorce
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Percent of Marriages Ending in Divorce
60
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Percent
50
40
30
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20
10
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0
1965
1970
US
1975
1980
Canada
1985
Sw eden
1990
1995
Hungary
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Italy
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Slide 8
Racial-Ethnic Differences in Divorce:
Cohort Measures
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Figur e 1 2 -2
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52.7
African American
47.9
Native American
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45.5
Puerto Rican
39.2
Hawaiian
37.4
Non-Hispanic white
33.0
Cuban
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30.5
Mexican
28.1
Vietnamese
Korean
21.7
Japanese
21.8
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21.4
Filipino
14.4
Chinese
7.3
Asian Indian
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percent no longer inSource:
intact
first marriage
Sweet & Bumpass [1987].
12-2
McGraw-Hill College
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Slide 9
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Other Interesting Figures
from Life Tables
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Proportion of Divorced Persons who Remarry
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100
Percent
90
88
86
80
83
80
83
85
78
76
78
78
72
70
69
60
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50
1970
1975
1980
1983
Men
Women
1988
1995
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Slide 10
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Explanations for Aggregate Trends
• Changing divorce laws?
• Changing nature of marital bargain
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• Improving economic situation of women
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• Deteriorating economic situation of men?
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Slide 11
Individual-level Correlates
of Divorce
• Economic well-being/unemployment
• Age at marriage
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(importance of level of analysis)
• Race/ethnicity
• Personal and family background characteristics
–
–
–
–
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Parental marital history
Cohabitation
Homogamy
Genetic?
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Slide 12
Consequences of divorce
• For mother
– Economic
– Social
• For father
– Relationship with children
– Social
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•For child(ren): Behavioral, Emotional, Health,
Education, Economic, Family outcomes
–Pre-divorce stress/conflict vs. Divorce itself
–Economic resources
–Quality of parenting
–Short-term vs. long-term
–How to evaluate these negative effects?
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Slide 13
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Variation in Consequences of Divorce
• By amicability of divorce
• By mother’s labor force history
(human capital)
• Sex of child (boys vs. girls)
• Age at which parents divorce
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Slide 14
Why has the increase in divorce
slowed in recent years?
• Increasing age at first marriage
• Fewer remarriages (which have a higher
likelihood of ending in divorce)
• Increasing cohabitation – less marriage
among those most likely to divorce
• More information about consequences of
divorce (i.e., learning curve)
• New equilibrium (i.e., “pent-up” demand for
divorce is satisfied)
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