Modeling Complex Interactions of Overlapping River and Road Networks in a Changing Landscape NSF Biocomplexity Grant Collaborators: John Loomis 1, Melinda Laituri 1, Jorge A Ramírez 1, Kirk Sherrill 1 and Ellen Wohl 1, Alan Covich 2, Paul Box 3, Todd Crowl 3, and Kaite Hein 3, Armando González-Cabán 4, Elías Gutíerrez 5, and Luis Santiago 5, and Andy Pike 6, Fred Scatena 6, and Dana Tomlin 6. Hypothesis: As road density increases, habitat connectivity decreases. There is an increase in the number of perturbations in ecological connections that effect processes such as species migration (shrimp), stream flows, and disturbance regimes. Why this study area? Three river networks in Puerto Rico have similar elevational gradients, hydrological regimes, steep-headwater channels, drainage areas, vegetative cover, food-web composition, and seasonally defined recreational uses. They differ in road densities and access by visitors via roads. Land uses (urban, rural, and tropical forest) in each of these three tropical coastal watersheds reflect elevation, with human developments primarily along the coastal plain. Colorado State University, 2 University of Georgia, 3 Utah State University, 4 USDA Forest Service, 5 University of Puerto Rico, and 6 University of Pennsylvania Aquatic Biology - Road Network Geographic Information Systems (GIS) River-road intersections create visitor access to streams where aquatic species can be harvested and water quality can be effected. Integrative tool for database management and analysis. Stream Network - Aquatic Biology Stream communities are a function of elevation, waterfall and human activities. Arrows show species distribution from mouth to headwater reaches. River - Road Nodes River-Road Crossings within Study Area 60 50 Rio Espiritu Santo Stream Network Rio Mameyes 40 Rio Fajardo 30 20 Road Network 10 0 Primary Secondary Tertiary Class 4 Trail Road Class Topography Aquatic Biology - Human Activity Stream Network - Road Network Streams are influenced by road effects due to road proximity and density. Shrimp species richness and average visitor use of rivers are inversely related Habitat Trophic Aquatic Migration Biology Shrimp Species Richness & Average River Visitor Use 4.5 40 30 20 Hydrology Geology Vegetation 4 50 3.5 3 Average River Use 2.5 Shrimp Species Richness 2 1.5 1 10 0.5 0 0 ES Bridge Sonadora El Verde New (2) Bridge (2) Bridge (2) Jimenez (3) Puente Las Vegas Roto (3) (2) Sitename and Road Class Shrimp Richness Average River Visitor Use Hours 60 Stream Network Roads within 100m Stream Buffer Road Length by Road Class in Primary 100 m River Buffer Road Length (m) in River Buffer Evaluate the Direct Effects of Roads on River Hydrology and Aquatic Species Evaluate Indirect Effects of Roads on Water Quality and Aquatic Species from the Recreation Visitation Roads make possible Understand Interactions across space, time and themes (Biotic, Physical, Social) 1 Number of River Intersections Objectives: The importance of road and river network intersections in determining dynamic changes to landscapes will be tested using individual/agent-based simulation modeling that integrates field-based physical, biological and social sub-models. Secondary Tertiary Class 4 Total Road in Buffer 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Espiritu Santo Road Traits Road Connectivity Network Usage Human Society Demand Activity Economic Demand Recreation Mameyes Fajardo Roads types in Buffer Watersheds Class 4 Rio Espiritu Santo Primary Rio Fajardo Secondary Rio Mameyes Tertiary Streams SWARM: Individual Agent Based Model 100 m Buffer Human Activity - Stream Network Road Network - Human Activity Travel time is an important factor in human activity and access to recreational river sites. Higher stream flows may inhibit human activities along streams. Sampling Matrix Transcends Scales: Recreation: High, Medium, and Low Use Road Size: Primary, Secondary, Tertiary, Class 4, and Trail Stream Class: Low, Medium, High (Relative Size) Rio Mameyes River Use versus Stream Flow Weekend / Holiday 200 45 Total River Use 40 Stream Flow 35 194 184 30 150 125 25 20 100 15 10 50 5 0 0 7/24/2004 7/26/2004 8/1/2004 Stream Flow (CFS) Identify feed back loops Recognize Interconnects across scales Determine Emergent Properties Create Education and Outreach through K-12 partnerships Visitor and River Use (Hours) 250