Global Forum on Trade Statistics
Measuring Global Trade – Do We Have the Right Numbers?
Geneva Switzerland
2-4 February, 2011
Aaron Sydor
Office of the Chief Economist
Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada
1
Overview
 Trends in policy analysis and research…what’s
new?
• But not all gaps are due to new developments.
 A user’s perspective of data gaps:
• Examples of policy analysis and research; and
• Notable data gaps.
2
Trends in Policy Analysis and
Research
 Rising importance of non-OECD countries
• Strengthening of North-South and South-South linkages
 Global value chains
• A ‘global commerce’ approach
• Increased emphasis on operations of multinationals;
offshoring/outsourcing
• International fragmentation of all stages of the value chain
 Firm-level analysis
 Link between real and financial flows
3
Strategy
 Example of policy
question or analysis
 Data gaps
4
Goods Trade
Share of ‘Others’ in Canadian
Goods Trade

16 Percent
Non-OECD countries poorly
represented in BOP data:
– Little price information by
product and destination;
14
– BOP categories do not match
industries; and,
12
– Terms of trade and prices
increasingly important.
10
8

6
Merchandise (customs based
data):
– Link to tariffs; and,
99
'0
0
'0
1
'0
2
'0
3
'0
4
'0
5
'0
6
'0
7
'0
8
'0
9
97
98
95
96
4
– Access to international data…
make Comtrade free!
Data: Statistics Canada
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
5
FDI and Services Trade
Top Ten Destinations for Canadian
FDI and Service Exports

Destination and source for FDI
does not match well with real
economic activity:
Country
Share
Country
Share
U.S.
44.0%
U.S.
53.7%
– First destination and tax havens;
U.K.
11.0%
U.K.
6.5%
Barbados
6.9%
Germany
2.7%
– Important for BITs and service
delivery; and,
Ireland
3.8%
France
2.7%
– Tracking GVCs.
Cayman
Islands
3.3%
Switzerla
nd
2.3%
Bermuda
3.1%
Bermuda
2.1%
France
2.7%
Japan
1.8%
Australia
2.2%
China
1.6%
Hungary
2.1%
Barbados
1.5%
Bahamas
2.0%
HK, China
1.4%
Data: Statistics Canada; FDI 2009, services 2008.
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT

Services – measurement, lack of
detail on modes, lack of country
detail, BOP does not match
industry categories;
– Increasingly important in
knowledge-based economies;
and,
– Trade negotiations.
6
A Global Value Chain
Perspective
U.S. Content of Canadian
Manufacturing Exports

Trans. Eqt.
Plastics and Rubber
Electrical Eqt.
Using I/O tables to measure
GVCs:
– Proportionality in use and
source.
Computer and Electronic
Chemical
Machinery

Misc. Manu.
Other gaps:
Paper
– End-use classification systems
(BEC);
Fab. Metal
Primary Metal
Food
Furniture
– Intra-firm trade; and
Printing
Non-Metallic Mineral
– Value-added measures of trade.
Wood Product
Clothing
Petroleum & Coal
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percent
Data: Statistics Canada, 2004
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
7
A Global Value Chain
Perspective, cont…
Canada’s Foreign Affiliate Sales
and Employees by Region
2007 ($)
Total sales
100.0
238,152
52.0
U.K.
32,838
7.2
Other EU
55,805
12.2
Other OECD
38,556
8.4
Other
93,066
20.3
Share
(%)
2007 (#)
Total employees
United States
U.K.
Other EU
Other OECD
Other
– For example, R&D, legal,
accounting, etc to the product or
industry that they are
contributing to.

Operations of foreign MNES:
– Country detail;
1,135
100.0
599
52.8
68
6.0
161
14.2
83
7.3
224
19.
Data: Statistics Canada
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
The location of activities:
– Linking activities to products or
performing industry;
Share (%)
458,417
United States

– Types of activities in what
industries; and,
– Linkages back to domestic
economy.
8
Firm-level Data
The Average Value of Exports per
Firm After Initial Entry

Tracking the dynamics of
individual exports and importers
and by size groups.

Better links international
performance to domestic policy
agenda, for example productivity.
$ ‘000s
– Linking exporter registry data
(from customs documents) to
other firm characteristics;
– Link between exporter and
importer registries…a form of I/O
structure;
– Moving beyond customs data;
and
Data: Statistics Canada
Source: Office of the Chief Economist, DFAIT
– Access.
9
References

Fenstra et al “Report on the State of Available Data for the Study of International Trade and Foreign
Direct Investment”, NBER, 2010.

Gereffi and Sturgeon “The Challenge of Global Value Chains: Why Integrative Trade Requires New
Thinking and New Data”, Industry Canada, 2008.

General Accounting Office “Current Government Data Provide Limited Insight into Offshoring of
Services” 2004.

Maurer and Degain “Globalization and trade flows: what you see is not what you get!”, WTO, 2010.

Nordas “International production sharing: a case for a coherent policy framework”, WTO, 2005.

Ridgeway “Data Issues on Integrative Trade between Canada and the US: Measurement Issues for
Supply Chains, Trade Policy Research, 2006.

______ “Canada’s Annual Report on The State of Trade”, Foreign Affairs and International Trade
Canada.
10