The Morning Call /
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public
Opinion
Survey of Pennsylvanians on the War in Iraq
KEY FINDINGS REPORT
February, 2008
KEY FINDINGS:
1. Pennsylvania residents continue to express a negative view of the situation in Iraq.
Perceptions of whether the war was worth fighting are at their lowest point since the war
began.
2. Roughly 2/3’s of Commonwealth residents disapprove of President Bush’s handling
of the war in Iraq.
3. Residents who identify themselves as Independents are increasingly aligning with the
views of Democrats on several indicators of the War and its impacts.
4. Roughly six out of ten Pennsylvanians support the creation of a timetable to begin to
withdraw troops from Iraq.
METHODOLOGY: The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a
telephone survey of residents of the state of Pennsylvania between January 21 and
February 20, 2008. Individual households throughout Pennsylvania were selected
randomly for inclusion in the study. The sample of phone numbers used in the survey was
generated by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, PA. Interviewing was
conducted by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, with 410
surveys completed. This number of completions results in a margin of error of +/- 4.5%
at the 95% confidence interval. However the margin of errors for sub groups (i.e. women,
income groups, age categories) is larger due to smaller sample size. Percentages
throughout the survey have been rounded upward at the .5 mark, thus many totals in the
results will not equal 100%. The survey questionnaire was designed by Christopher
Borick, Ph.D. of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in consultation with
staff members of the Morning Call.
PRESIDENT BUSH AND THE WAR:
Pennsylvanians continued to negatively rate the President’s management of the
Iraq situation, with 25% of residents approving and 67% disapproving the way he is
handling the war. These figures, while consistent with last year’s results, show a
significant decline in the President’s rating on this issue overtime, from the 45% approval
rating of Pennsylvanians in the early 2004, as perceptions about the situation in Iraq have
continued to evolve.
These results varied significantly according to political party identification. Only
11% of Democrats in the Commonwealth approve of President Bush’s handling of the
war and 85% disapprove. Republicans are more evenly split on this issue, with 45%
approving and 47% disapproving. Voters who identify themselves as Independents, who
are a key swing-vote in elections, were more in line with Democrats, with 18% approving
and 79% disapproving President Bush’s handling of this issue.
Table One:
“Approval of George W. Bush’s handling of the situation with Iraq”
Date
March 04
May 04
October 04
March 05
September 05
April 06
November 06
May 07
February 08
Approve
45%
42%
41%
40%
34%
32%
35%
25%
25%
Disapprove
42%
46%
49%
53%
57%
60%
62%
67%
67%
Not Sure
10%
11%
8%
5%
9%
7%
3%
7%
6%
Refused
2%
<1%
2%
3%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
3%
IMPACT OF THE WAR
Citizens of the Keystone State continued to express increasing doubts about the
war in Iraq and its consequences. 25% of residents now believe that when considering its
overall costs and benefits, the war was worth fighting, which is the lowest ever figure
since this study began tracking perceptions about the war in March 2004. Since that time,
that number has been in a steady decline, while the percentage of those who say it was
not worth fighting has increased to 66% this year. 13% of Democrats, 46% of
Republicans and 13% of Independents believed that the war was worth fighting, showing
that Independents are again lining up more with the Democratic viewpoint on this issue.
Table Two:
“Pennsylvanian’s Views on Whether the Iraq War Was Worth Fighting”
Date
March 04
May 04
March 05
September 05
April 06
November 06
May 07
February 08
Worth
Fighting
47%
41%
38%
34%
35%
35%
31%
25%
Not Worth
Fighting
42%
49%
53%
59%
58%
60%
63%
66%
Not Sure
Refused
10%
9%
6%
7%
7%
4%
5%
6%
2%
1%
3%
0%
0%
<1%
<1%
3%
Another important indicator of the War in Iraq’s impact is whether Americans
believe it has made the country safer from terrorism. After all, one of the initial sellingpoints for this policy was that it would act as a deterrent against terrorism again the
United States. In Pennsylvania, only 29% of residents now believe that the War has made
America safer, while 63% believe it has not. These numbers are relatively consistent with
the May 2007 iteration of the study when 30% believed we were safer and 65% believed
we were not safer because of the Iraq war.
Table Three:
“Pennsylvanian’s Views on Whether the Iraq War Has Made
America Safer From Terrorism”
Date
March 04
May 04
October 04
March 05
September 05
April 06
November 06
May 07
February 08
Safer from
Terrorism
39%
36%
37%
35%
33%
34%
33%
30%
29%
Not Safer from
Terrorism
48%
56%
56%
56%
60%
58%
61%
65%
63%
Not Sure
Refused
12%
8%
7%
6%
7%
7%
4%
5%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
2%
<1%
<1%
2%
1%
3%
WITHDRAWING FROM IRAQ
As the situation in Iraq has continued, many lawmakers have supported the idea
of a timetable to begin a drawdown of troops from the country. When asked whether the
U.S should set this timetable, 62% of Pennsylvania residents believed they should, while
30% believed they should not. These numbers are relatively consistent with the 2007
study, when 61% supported and 31% opposed a timetable. 79% of Democrats, 45% of
Republicans, and 56% of Independents supported a timetable, showing significant
partisan division about future policies for Iraq.
Table Three:
“Pennsylvanian’s Support for a Timetable for Troop Withdrawals from Iraq”
Date
May 07
February 08
Support a
Timetable
61%
62%
Oppose a
Timetable
31%
30%
Not Sure
Refused
7%
5%
1%
3%
ANALYSIS: THE IRAQ WAR and the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
The Iraq war is one policy issue where the two major party candidates for
President, John McCain and Barack Obama, have taken completely different viewpoints.
Barack Obama was initially opposed to the conflict and has stated his support for a
significant withdrawal of forces during the campaign. John McCain having voted for the
resolution authorizing war in October 2002, continues to support a troop occupation in
the country into the foreseeable future. As a result, how significantly this issue continues
to remain at the forefront to voters, and to which side the sentiments of Commonwealth
voters go to, could determine the eventual winner of Pennsylvania in November.