Rick Santorum:
The Pennsylvania Perspective
February 25, 2012
KEY FINDINGS
1. As former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has emerged as a leading
contender for the Republican Party nomination for President, voters of the
Keystone State maintain significant reservations about his policy positions
and electability.
2. Santorum trails President Obama in terms of voters support in a presidential
race in Pennsylvania, with the Democratic incumbent holding an 8 point lead
over the Commonwealth’s former Senator. Santorum performs slightly
better than his major GOP challenger Mitt Romney in terms of a match-up
with Obama in Pennsylvania, with Romney trailing Obama by 11% in the
state.
3. Just under half (49%) of Pennsylvania voters have an unfavorable view of
their former Senator, with about 4 in 10 maintaining a positive view of
Santorum.
4. When asked to provide one word to describe Rick Santorum 37% of
Pennsylvanians chose a negative term, 30% chose a positive description and
33% selected a neutral word. Among specific words: conservative (13%);
honest/trustworthy (10%); and extreme/dangerous (8%) were most
commonly chosen.
5. A vast majority (80%) of Pennsylvania voters believe that Rick Santorum
speaks honestly about his beliefs, but a majority (51%) do not believe
Santorum maintains the same beliefs and values that they do.
6. About 1 in 3 Pennsylvania voters has changed their opinion of Rick Santorum
since he left office in 2006, but his overall favorability rating remains
unchanged.
7. Most Commonwealth voters do not believe that Santorum can beat President
Obama in the fall, with a majority indicating that his views on social issues
are too extreme for him to be president.
8. About 2 out 3 Keystone State voters disagree with the claim that Rick
Santorum is too connected to Washington D.C. to understand the issues that
face common Pennsylvanians.
9. In a hypothetical match-up between Santorum and Bob Casey Jr. in a race for
a United States Senate seat from Pennsylvania, Casey beats Santorum by 8%.
While Santorum’s loss would be a replay of his 2012 defeat to Casey, he trims
his margin of defeat from over 17 points down to 8%.
1
METHODOLOGY:
The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a telephone survey of 625
registered voters in the state of Pennsylvania between February 15 and 21, 2012. The
sampling frame for the study was drawn from a list of registered voters provided by the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The list has been updated through a phone-matching
process to ensure that the largest number of registered voters can be reached through
telephone interviews. All interviews are conducted by individuals who have been trained
in standard interviewing procedures. The total number of completions (625) results in a
margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95% confidence interval. However the margin of errors
for sub groups (i.e. Republicans, women, college educated) is larger due to smaller
sample size. Percentages throughout the survey have been rounded upward at the .5
mark, thus many totals in the results will not equal 100%. The data has been weighted by
the following categories: age, gender, and region. Up to 4 attempts were made for each
phone number included in the sample. The AAPOR RR1 completion rate for the survey
was 28%. The instrument was designed by Christopher Borick, Ph.D in consultation with
staff members of the Morning Call. The analysis was written Dr. Borick.
OVERVIEW:
As Rick Santorum has emerged as a leading contender for the Republican Party’s
nomination for president the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Institute of Public
Opinion Poll has sought to gain insight into how Pennsylvania’s voters view their
former Senator. Santorum served two terms as the Keystone State’s junior Senator
between 1995 and 2007. His tenure in Washington D.C. was brought to a halt in a
devastating loss to Bob Casey Jr. in November of 2006. In that race Santorum
suffered the largest margin of defeat of any incumbent in the nation, casting doubt
about his political future both in Pennsylvania and beyond. Yet in 2012 Santorum
has resurrected his political career, winning numerous GOP caucuses and primaries,
and establishing himself as a prime conservative alternative to former
Massachusetts Governor Mitt Santorum. As Santorum and Romney take their battle
to Romney’s home state of Michigan, the poll summarized in this report sought to
find out where Commonwealth voters stand on Santorum five years after he left
office.
OVERALL VIEWS OF SANTORUM:
While Senator Santorum has seen his political fortunes shift dramatically since
losing his seat in the 2006 elections, voters in the Commonwealth appear to have
nearly identical views regarding his overall favorability today as they did over five
years ago. As Table One demonstrates, Santorum’s favorability ratings today are
unchanged from the marks he had in the days preceding his loss to Bob Casey Jr. in
the November 2006 Senate election.
2
TABLE ONE
Rick Santorum’s Favorability Ratings Among
Registered Voters in Pennsylvania
2006-2012
Favorable
November 2006
February 2012
40%
39%
Unfavorable Neutral/Not
Sure
50%
10%
49%
12%
The survey results show deep divisions in opinions on Rick Santorum across
political and demographic categories. In terms of party affiliation, Santorum is
viewed favorably by about 2 out of 3 Republicans in the state, while over 2 out of 3
Democrats view him unfavorably. Among the Commonwealth’s independent voters
Santorum’s numbers are fairly negative, with a majority (52%) of unaligned voters
maintaining unfavorable views of the Republican presidential challenger.
TABLE TWO
Rick Santorum’s Favorability Ratings Among
Registered Voters in Pennsylvania
By Party Registration Status
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Favorable
19%
65%
37%
Unfavorable
69%
23%
52%
No opinion
13%
12%
11%
Notably, Santorum is viewed more favorably by the state’s male voters than by their
female counterparts. The survey findings indicate that while only 35% of
Pennsylvania’s female voters view Santorum favorably, 43% of males have a
positive view of their former Senator. The gap in views on Santorum is largest
among Democratic and Republican women, with only 14% of female Democrats
viewing Santorum favorably compared with 61% of female Republicans.
3
TABLE THREE
Rick Santorum’s Favorability Ratings Among
Registered Voters in Pennsylvania
By Gender
All Females
All Males
Female Democrat
Female Republican
Favorable
35%
43%
14%
61%
Unfavorable
53%
45%
74%
23%
No opinion
13%
12%
13%
15%
SANTORUM”S IMAGE:
Santorum’s image among Pennsylvania voters can be examined through the terms
they use to describe their former Senator. In the last Republican primary debate on
February 22, 2012 the candidates were asked to select one word to describe
themselves. When asked this question Senator Santorum responded “courage.”
When Pennsylvania voters were asked to describe Santorum with a single word
only 1 out of 625 respondents chose “courageous” to describe the presidential
candidate. Instead Commonwealth voters turned to a number of other words to
describe Santorum. When broken down into broad categories, 37% of the terms
used to describe Santorum were negative, 30% were positive and 33% had neutral
connotations. The most common words chosen were conservative (13%);
honest/trustworthy (10%); and extreme/dangerous (8%).
TABLE FOUR
“What is the one word that you would chose to describe Rick Santorum?”
Broad Categories
Positive Terms
Negative Terms
Neutral Terms
Specific Terms (Top Choices)
Conservative
Honest/Trustworthy
Extreme/Dangerous
Sneaky/Devious
Religious/Christian
Lacks Intelligence
Crazy/Insane
Honorable/Decent
Moral Integrity
Percent Responding
37%
30%
33%
Percent Responding
13%
10%
8%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE:
Throughout the Republican primary campaign the issue of electability has played a
major role. The ability to beat President Obama in November has been trumpeted
by all the leading GOP contenders, with each contending they have the upper hand
in terms of these criteria. With Pennsylvania once again playing its role as a key
swing state, and with Santorum maintaining the position as a “favorite son,” there is
considerable value in evaluating how the Keystone State’s former Senator matches
up with the president in the Commonwealth. The survey results show that the
president holds an 8 point advantage over Santorum in a head-to-head contest with
Obama garnering 49% of Commonwealth voters compared to Santorum’s 41%.
TABLE FIVE
Obama vs. Santorum
Candidate
Obama
Santorum
Other
Not Sure
Percent
49%
41%
4%
5%
Looking at the race across a variety of voters’ characteristics there are a number of
notable splits in the electorate. Neither Obama nor Santorum is able to make
substantial inroads among voters in their opponent’s party. The president wins
only 14% of registered Republicans in the state, while Santorum takes a mere 11%
of Democrats in Pennsylvania. Given the large advantage Democrats have in terms
of registered voters in the state, and with the GOP turnout advantage likely to be
offset by generally solid Democratic turnout in a presidential election year, the
Republican candidate will need to perform well among the state’s independent
voters. Unfortunately for Santorum the survey results indicate that he struggles
against Obama among Pennsylvania’s independents, with the Republican challenger
trailing the incumbent by a 55% to 33% margin. Santorum also struggles among
higher-educated voters in the Commonwealth, losing to Obama by 19 points among
voters with a college degree.
5
TABLE SIX
Obama vs. Santorum
by Political and Demographic Characteristics
of Pennsylvania Voters
Obama
Overall
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
49%
80%
14%
55%
50%
50%
43%
56%
Santorum
41%
11%
79%
33%
41%
42%
48%
37%
Some other
Candidate
4%
4%
2%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
Not Sure/No
opinion
5%
4%
5%
9%
6%
5%
6%
4%
When compared to his primary opponent Mitt Romney, Santorum performs about
the same in a head-to-head race with Obama. The president beats Romney by a
margin of 11%, a mark similar to Obama’s 8% margin over Santorum. In their
respective contests with Obama, Santorum performs slightly better than Romney
among Republicans, while both Santorum and the former Massachusetts Governor
struggle to win support from independent voters in the Commonwealth.
TABLE SEVEN
Obama vs. Romney
by Political and Demographic Characteristics
of Pennsylvania Voters
Obama
Overall
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
48%
80%
12%
49%
47%
48%
42%
53%
Romney
37%
9%
71%
30%
39%
36%
41%
35%
6
Some other
Candidate
9%
6%
12%
12%
8%
10%
11%
7%
Not Sure/No
opinion
6%
5%
5%
9%
5%
6%
6%
5%
ELECTABILITY:
The Pennsylvania electorate maintains substantial skepticism that Senator
Santorum can beat Obama in November with less than 1 out 3 registered voters in
the Commonwealth indicating that they think Santorum can emerge victorious in
the general election. A plurality (45%) of state voters strongly disagreed with the
premise that Santorum can prevail in November, with even a third of Republican
voters doubting their former Senator could pull off the win 8 months from now.
TABLE EIGHT
Levels of Agreement with the Statement:
“Rick Santorum can beat President Obama in the Presidential Election.”
Strongly
agree
Overall
13%
Democrat
4%
Republican
24%
Independent
12%
Somewhat
agree
19%
7%
36%
14%
Somewhat
disagree
14%
15%
13%
15%
Strongly
disagree
45%
65%
19%
47%
Not sure
10%
9%
9%
13%
POLICY POSITIONS and BELIEFS
Throughout his career Senator Santorum has devoted substantial attention to social
policies such as abortion, contraceptives and gay and lesbian rights (e.g. gay
marriage). His positions on these matters have drawn significant media and public
attention and played a major role in his campaign to win the Republican
nomination. The results of the survey provide evidence that Santorum’s stances on
social policies remain very divisive in terms of the Pennsylvania electorate. A
majority of Commonwealth voters believe that Santorum’s views on social issues
are too extreme for him to be president, and by a 2 to 1 margin voters in the state do
not think that their former Senator’s views on contraceptives are similar to their
views on this subject. Voters in the state also tend to have conflicting views on
Santorum’s stance on using military force against Iran. In particular, 45% of voters
disagree that Santorum’s views on the use of military force against Iran would make
the United States safer if followed, while only 26% agree with this contention.
7
TABLE NINE
Levels of Agreement with Statements Regarding
Rick Santorum’s Policy Positions
Rick Santorum’s views on
social issues are too extreme
for him to be president.
Rick Santorum’s views on the
use of military force against
Iran would make the United
States safer if they were
followed.
Rick Santorum’s positions on
contraceptives are similar to
my views on this matter.
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
36%
15%
18%
23%
Not
Sure
8%
12%
14%
14%
31%
30%
17%
10%
10%
44%
19%
One of Santorum’s greatest strengths in the eyes of Pennsylvania voters is their
perception that he speaks honestly about his beliefs. The results of the survey show
that 4 out of 5 registered voters in the Commonwealth think that Santorum is
honest in the way he conveys his beliefs. Even 7 out of 10 Democrats in the State
think that Santorum is being honest when he talks about his beliefs.
TABLE TEN
Levels of Agreement with Statement
“Rick Santorum Speaks Honestly About His Belief”
Strongly
agree
Overall
60%
Democrat
45%
Republican
77%
Independent
53%
Somewhat
agree
20%
26%
15%
19%
Somewhat
disagree
7%
10%
2%
10%
Strongly
disagree
6%
11%
3%
11%
Not sure
6%
9%
3%
6%
While viewing Santorum as honest, Pennsylvanians seem to disagree with many of
the beliefs that their former Senator holds. When asked if they agree that Rick
Santorum shares most of the same values and beliefs that they have, a majority
(51%) of voters in the Commonwealth disagreed with the statement. Santorum’s
polarizing effect can be examined through the levels of agreement with the
8
aforementioned statement, with 40% of the state’s electorate strongly disagreeing
that Santorum shares their values, and 22% strongly agreeing that the former
Senator’s values and beliefs are the same as theirs. The partisan splits on the issue
of Santorum’s beliefs are even more obvious, with 2 out of 3 Democrats strongly
disagreeing that Santorum shares their beliefs and values, and over 4 out of 10
Republican voters strongly agreeing that the former GOP Senator’s values and
beliefs are aligned with theirs.
TABLE ELEVEN
Levels of Agreement with Statement:
“Rick Santorum shares most of the same values and beliefs that I have”
Strongly
agree
Overall
22%
Democrat
7%
Republican
43%
Independent
8%
Somewhat
agree
21%
9%
34%
24%
Somewhat
disagree
11%
11%
10%
20%
Strongly
disagree
40%
65%
11%
42%
Not sure
8%
2%
6%
5%
Notably, a majority of Pennsylvania voters who believe that Rick Santorum does not
share their values and beliefs still think that Santorum speaks honestly about his
beliefs. As can be seen in Table Twelve below, 2 out of 3 Pennsylvania voters who
strongly disagree that Senator Santorum shares their beliefs and values also
strongly agree that he speaks honestly about his beliefs. In essence the
Commonwealth’s voters think that Santorum says what he believes but most do not
agree with the beliefs he espouses.
TABLE TWELVE
The Relationship Between Santorum’s Beliefs and Values and His Honesty in
Speaking About His Beliefs
Rick
Santorum
shares most
of the same
values and
beliefs that I
have.
Strongly Agree
Somewhat
Agree
Somewhat
Disagree
Strongly
Disagree
Rick Santorum speaks honestly about his beliefs.
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Not
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree Sure
96%
4%
0%
0%
0%
69%
27%
0%
2%
2%
55%
24%
11%
3%
7%
39%
27%
12%
17%
5%
9
SANTORUM vs. CASEY – THE 2012 PERSPECTIVE:
The 2006 Senate election in Pennsylvania marked a pivotal event in Rick Santorum’s
career. After winning two elections to the Senate in 1994 and 2000, Santorum rose
through the ranks of Senate Republicans to become Majority Whip. But in 2006,
during a year that would prove to be disastrous for the Republican Party, Santorum
was soundly defeated by Bob Casey Jr.. The nearly 18 point loss left many
questioning if Santorum’s political career was over. Even as he campaigned in the
early stages of the Republican primary campaign in 2011 the loss to Casey was
regularly cited as a key reason why his chances of gaining the Republican
nomination were considered a long shot. Nevertheless, Santorum’s success in
winning a number of caucuses and primaries has placed him among the leading
contenders for his party’s nomination.
With both the history of the 2006 loss and Santorum’s recent surge in mind, it is
valuable to see how Pennsylvania voters would consider a Casey-Santorum race
today. Thus we asked survey respondents how they would vote if Santorum and
Casey faced off again today. The results show that Casey would once again defeat
Santorum, but Casey’s margin of victory would have been cut in half. A 2012 CaseySantorum contest finds Casey winning 44 to 36, with 20% of voters preferring
another candidate or unsure about their choice.
TABLE THIRTEEN
Casey vs. Santorum: 2012
Candidate
Casey
Santorum
Other
Not Sure
Percent
44%
36%
7%
12%
Finally, would individuals who voted in the 2006 race change their minds if given
the chance to vote in a Santorum-Casey rematch? The answer is largely no. As can
be seen in Table Fourteen, an overwhelming majority (88%) of Santorum voters
stay loyal to him in a rematch with Casey, while almost all (84%) of Casey’s 2006
supporters would once again support him. For those who didn’t vote in 2006 or
can’t recall how they voted in that race, there is equal support for Casey and
Santorum.
10
TABLE FOURTEEN
Preferences in a 2012 Casey-Santorum Race by
Votes in the 2006 Race
Candidate Preferences in 2012
Santorum Casey
Other
Not Sure
Candidate
Voted for
Santorum in
2006
Voted for Casey
in 2006
Didn’t Vote in
2006
Can’t Recall 2006
Vote
88%
6%
2%
5%
6%
84%
5%
5%
34%
36%
5%
365
35%
35%
12%
19%
CONCLUSION:
With the Republican presidential primary season entering a crucial stretch, Rick
Santorum has emerged as a leading challenger for his party’s nomination.
Santorum’s rise among the GOP challengers has been fueled by his strong standing
among conservative voters nationally and their perception of him as a candidate
who says what he believes. The results of this poll indicate that Pennsylvania
Republicans maintain very positive views about their former Senator and that most.
share his beliefs and values. However, among Pennsylvania voters in general,
Santorum’s standing is very much like it was in 2006 when he lost his Senate seat.
Less that 40% of Pennsylvania voters have a favorable view of him, with a solid
majority disagreeing with many of his policy positions and beliefs. These findings
call into question Santorum’s claim that his history in winning elections in a key
swing state make him a strong contender to defeat Barack Obama in November. As
of February 2012, the views of Pennsylvania voters regarding Santorum
demonstrate some of the key weaknesses that derailed his senatorial career in
2006: perceptions of Santorum as being extreme on social issues and weakness
among both Democrats and independents in the Keystone State.
11
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
“Pennsylvania and Rick Santorum”
Statewide Survey
Final Frequency Report
Sample - 625 Registered Voters
Fielding Dates: February 15 –21, 2012
Margin of Error = +/- 4% at 95% Level of Confidence
AAPOR RR1 – Response Rate = 28%
Data Weighted by Age, Gender and Region
Q1. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are
you registered as a (READ LIST)?
Response
Democrat
Republican
Independent
With Another Party
Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania
Not Sure
Percent
46%
39%
14%
1%
DISCONTINUE SURVEY
DISCONTINUE SURVEY
Q2: Next, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each
name I read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable.
First, President Barack Obama?
Response
Favorable
Unfavorable
No Opinion
Percent
48%
44%
8%
Q3: How about former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney?
Response
Favorable
Unfavorable
No Opinion
Percent
26%
51%
23%
12
Q4: Next, former United States Senator Rick Santorum?
Response
Favorable
Unfavorable
No Opinion
Percent
39%
49%
12%
Q5: And finally United States Senator Bob Casey. Jr.?
Response
Favorable
Unfavorable
No Opinion
Percent
42%
28%
30%
Q6 : Now, if the 2012 presidential election was being held today
and the race was between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney,
who would you vote for?
Response
Obama
Romney
Some Other Candidate (VOL)
Not Sure
Percent
48%
37%
9%
6%
Q7: If the 2012 presidential election was being held today
and the race was between Barack Obama and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Response
Obama
Santorum
Some Other Candidate (VOL)
Not Sure
Percent
49%
41%
4%
5%
Q8: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he
does not deserve to be reelected?
Response
Yes
No
Not Sure (VOL)
Percent
42%
25%
32%
13
Q9: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think
you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or the Republican
candidate?
Response
Casey
Republican
Depends on the Candidate (VOL)
Not Sure
Percent
40%
25%
20%
14%
Q10: Now, if the 2012 U.S. Senate election was being held today
and the race was between Bob Casey Jr..and Rick Santorum,
who would you vote for?
Response
Casey
Santorum
Some Other Candidate (VOL)
Not Sure
Percent
44%
36%
7%
12%
Q11: Which of the following best describes your actions during the 2006 U.S. Senate
Election in Pennsylvania:
Response
I voted for Rick Santorum
I voted for Bob Casey Jr
I voted for a candidate other than Casey or Santorum
I didn’t vote in that election
Or I can’t remember what decisions I made in that election
Not Sure
Percent
22%
34%
4%
12%
25%
3%
Q12: What is the one word that you would chose to describe Rick Santorum?
BROAD CATEGORIES
Positive Word
Negative Word
Neutral Word
PERCENT REPONDING
30%
37%
33%
14
SPECIFIC CATEGORIES
Conservative
Honest/Trustworthy
Extreme/Dangerous
Sneaky/Devious
Religious/Christian
Lacks Intelligence
Crazy/Insane
Honorable/Decent
Moral Integrity
Arrogant/Obnoxious
Good/Nice/Kind
Consistent/Dependable
Family
Prejudiced
Other Negative
Other Positive
Other Neutral
Not Sure/None
PERCENT RESPONDING
13%
10%
8%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
16%
9%
5%
12%
Please indicate if you Strongly Agree, Somewhat Agree, Somewhat Disagree, or
Strongly Disagree with the following statements:
Q13: Rick Santorum shares
most of the same values and
beliefs that I have.
Q14: Rick Santorum can
beat President Obama in the
presidential election.
Q15: Rick Santorum’s views
on social issues are too
extreme for him to be
president.
Q16: Rick Santorum speaks
honestly about his beliefs.
Q17: Rick Santorum is too
connected to Washington
D.C. to understand the
issues facing average
Pennsylvanians.
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
Agree
Agree
Disagree
Disagree
22%
21%
11%
40%
Not
Sure
5%
13%
19%
14%
45%
10%
36%
15%
18%
23%
8%
60%
20%
7%
6%
6%
16%
16%
28%
28%
13%
15
Q18: My opinions of Rick
Santorum have changed
since his days representing
Pennsylvania in Congress
Q19: Rick Santorum’s views
on the use of military force
against Iran would make the
United States safer if they
were followed.
Q20: Rick Santorum’s
positions on contraceptives
are similar to my views on
this matter.
15%
20%
21%
37%
8%
12%
14%
14%
31%
30%
17%
10%
10%
44%
19%
Q21: Finally, a few questions about yourself. In which of the following age categories
does your current age fall. READ LIST _______
Response
18-29
30-49
50-65
Or Over 65
Not Sure (VOL)
Percent
12%
30%
34%
24%
<1%
Q22: Which of the following best describes your political beliefs. (Read List)
Response
Very Conservative
Somewhat Conservative
Moderate
Somewhat Liberal
Very Liberal
Not Sure (VOL)
Percent
15%
25%
31%
17%
9%
3%
Q23: What is your highest level of education? Is it (READ LIST)?
Response
Less than High School
High School Graduate
Some College or Technical School
College Graduate (4 yr only)
Graduate or Professional Degree
Not Sure (VOL)
Percent
2%
27%
24%
32%
14%
<1%
16
Q24: Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? (READ
LIST)
Response
White/Caucasian
African-American
Hispanic/Latino
Asian
Native American
Mixed Race
or Other
Not Sure (VOL)
Percent
89%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
Q25: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are
you (READ LIST)?
Response
Catholic
Protestant
Jewish
Muslim
Hindu
Other Religion/Agnostic
Or Atheist
Not Sure (VOL)
Percent
34%
42%
3%
<1%
<1%
15%
4%
2%
Q26 Which of the following categories best describes your family income? (READ
LIST)
Response
Under $20,000
$20,000-$40,000
$40,000-$60,000
$60,000-$80,000
$80,000-$100,000
Over $100,000
Not Sure (VOL)
Percent
11%
19%
23%
12%
10%
21%
3%
17
Q27 Finally, would you be willing to be contacted by a newspaper reporter for a
follow up interview?
Response
Yes
No
Not Sure
Percent
27%
72%
2%
Q28 Thank you for your help with the survey. We appreciate your time. (DO NOT
ASK!)
Response
Male
Female
Percent
48%
52%
18
SELECTED CROSSTABULATIONS
APPROVAL RATINGS
Barack Obama
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
Favorable
79%
12%
47%
48%
47%
41%
54%
Unfavorable
13%
84%
41%
46%
44%
51%
40%
No opinion
8%
5%
13%
6%
9%
9%
6%
Favorable
14%
39%
24%
27%
25%
24%
28%
Unfavorable
66%
40%
45%
53%
52%
55%
50%
No opinion
20%
21%
31%
21%
23%
22%
22%
Favorable
19%
65%
37%
35%
43%
44%
35%
Unfavorable
69%
23%
52%
53%
45%
41%
56%
No opinion
13%
12%
11%
13%
12%
15%
10%
Favorable
51%
26%
43%
41%
39%
39%
41%
Unfavorable
20%
42%
17%
29%
29%
31%
26%
No opinion
29%
32%
40%
30%
33%
30%
33%
Mitt Romney
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
Rick Santorum
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
Bob Casey Jr
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
19
Would you vote for Obama or Romney?
Obama
Romney
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
80%
12%
49%
47%
48%
42%
53%
Obama or Santorum
Obama
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
80%
14%
55%
50%
50%
43%
56%
9%
71%
30%
39%
36%
41%
35%
Santorum
11%
79%
33%
41%
42%
48%
37%
Some other
Candidate
6%
12%
12%
8%
10%
11%
7%
Not Sure/No
opinion
5%
5%
9%
5%
6%
6%
5%
Some other
Candidate
4%
2%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
Not Sure/No
opinion
4%
5%
9%
6%
5%
6%
4%
Does Bob Casey Jr. deserve to be reelected?
Yes
No
Democrat
54%
16%
Republican
24%
41%
Independent
40%
15%
Female
40%
26%
Male
40%
26%
No College
38%
26%
College
41%
25%
Not sure
31%
36%
45%
35%
35%
36%
34%
Would you vote for Casey or Republican candidate?
Casey
Republican
Depends on
Candidate
Democrat
61%
6%
16%
Republican
13%
56%
21%
Independent
35%
16%
26%
Female
40%
27%
20%
Male
36%
27%
19%
No College
37%
29%
16%
College
39%
25%
23%
20
Not Sure
18%
11%
23%
13%
17%
18%
13%
Would you vote for Rick Santorum or Bob Casey Jr.
Casey
Santorum
Some other
Candidate
Democrat
68%
12%
8%
Republican
17%
66%
3%
Independent
44%
30%
10%
Female
42%
36%
9%
Male
44%
37%
5%
No College
37%
39%
7%
College
49%
34%
7%
Results of the 2006 election
Santorum Casey
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Female
Male
No College
College
5%
47%
8%
25%
20%
22%
22%
53%
9%
31%
37%
27%
26%
38%
other
2%
6%
5%
5%
3%
5%
4%
Didn’t
vote
11%
10%
31%
11%
16%
17%
11%
Not Sure
12%
14%
16%
13%
14%
17%
10%
Cant
remember
24%
24%
21%
16%
31%
24%
23%
Not
sure
3%
2%
3%
3%
2%
4%
1%
Ref.
2%
1%
1%
3%
0%
3%
1%
What is one word to describe Rick Santorum: (Positive or negative)
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Democrat
14%
59%
27%
Republican
48%
15%
37%
Independent
29%
30%
41%
Female
26%
39%
35%
Male
33%
36%
32%
No College
36%
33%
31%
College
24%
41%
35%
Rick Santorum shares most of the same values and beliefs that I have
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat
Strongly
agree
agree
disagree
disagree
Democrat
7%
9%
11%
65%
Republican
43%
34%
10%
11%
Independent
8%
24%
20%
42%
Female
19%
24%
10%
42%
Male
24%
19%
13%
38%
No College
24%
23%
10%
36%
College
20%
20%
13%
44%
21
Not sure
8%
2%
6%
5%
6%
7%
4%
Rick Santorum can beat President Obama
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat
agree
agree
disagree
Democrat
4%
7%
15%
Republican
24%
36%
13%
Independent
12%
14%
15%
Female
12%
19%
12%
Male
15%
19%
16%
No College
14%
23%
12%
College
14%
15%
15%
Strongly
disagree
65%
19%
47%
49%
39%
37%
49%
Rick Santorum’s views are too extreme to be president
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
agree
agree
disagree
disagree
Democrat
53%
14%
11%
11%
Republican
13%
17%
26%
39%
Independent
42%
15%
24%
11%
Female
36%
17%
18%
20%
Male
35%
14%
20%
24%
No College
27%
16%
24%
22%
College
43%
15%
14%
22%
Rick Santorum speaks honestly
Strongly Somewhat
agree
agree
Democrat
45%
26%
Republican
77%
15%
Independent
53%
19%
Female
58%
21%
Male
59%
21%
No College
59%
20%
College
59%
21%
Somewhat
disagree
10%
2%
10%
7%
6%
7%
6%
Strongly
disagree
11%
3%
11%
9%
6%
7%
8%
Not sure
9%
9%
13%
8%
11%
13%
6%
Not sure
11%
5%
8%
9%
7%
11%
6%
Not sure
9%
3%
6%
5%
7%
6%
7%
Rick Santorum is too connected to Washington, DC to understand the issues of
average Pennsylvanians
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
Not sure
agree
agree
disagree
disagree
Democrat
21%
18%
25%
17%
19%
Republican
7%
14%
30%
42%
8%
Independent
17%
16%
36%
19%
12%
Female
14%
19%
26%
29%
12%
Male
16%
14%
29%
27%
15%
No College
15%
18%
26%
27%
15%
College
16%
14%
30%
295
12%
22
My opinions of Rick Santorum have changed since his days representing
Pennsylvania in Congress.
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
Not sure
agree
agree
disagree
disagree
Democrat
14%
15%
18%
43%
10%
Republican
14%
27%
25%
29%
5%
Independent
17%
23%
22%
28%
9%
Female
11%
21%
24%
37%
8%
Male
17%
20%
19%
35%
9%
No College
17%
18%
25%
32%
9%
College
12%
23%
18%
40%
7%
Rick Santorum’s view on the use of military against Iran will make the US more safe.
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
Not sure
agree
agree
disagree
disagree
Democrat
2%
6%
18%
46%
28%
Republican
24%
27%
8%
11%
31%
Independent
8%
7%
24%
34%
27%
Female
12%
17%
15%
31%
25%
Male
11%
13%
14%
29%
33%
No College
14%
15%
13%
26%
32%
College
9%
15%
15%
34%
27%
Rick Santorum’s views on contraception are similar to mine.
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
agree
agree
disagree
disagree
Democrat
6%
4%
8%
65%
Republican
29%
15%
15%
22%
Independent
12%
15%
12%
47%
Female
13%
10%
14%
45%
Male
19%
10%
8%
44%
No College
20%
12%
10%
35%
College
13%
8%
12%
53%
23
Not sure
17%
21%
15%
18%
20%
24%
15%