Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Lehigh Valley/Trump/Presidential Election Poll
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 416 registered voters in Lehigh
and Northampton Counties in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between September 17 and
22, 2015. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (297) and cell phones
(119) by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) in Allentown,
Pennsylvania on the Institute’s Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. Of the
119 cell phone respondents 98 had no landlines in their household. With a randomly selected
sample of 416 respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of
confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample sizes, such as those for voters
from one political party, will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that
question wording and other fielding issues could introduce error or bias into survey results. The
sample data has been weighted by gender and party to reflect those characteristics as reported by
the Pennsylvania Secretary of State for Lehigh and Northampton Counties. The calculation of
sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order
to reach a representative sample of adult Pennsylvanians both land lines and cell phones are
called up to 5 times. The response rate for this survey as calculated using the American
Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) RRII formula is 13%. Due to rounding the
totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in
its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick of the MCIPO is conjunction with
the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the
MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at
484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at cborick@muhlenberg.edu.
INSTRUMENT
And
FREQUENCY REPORT
Q1: What is your current age? (Open Ended) (Coded into Categories)
18-34…………………11%
35-50…………………17%
51-64…………………34%
65 and Over…………..38%
Q2: Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you
registered as a ______? (READ LIST)
1. Democrat…………………….53%
2. Republican…………………...37%
3. Independent/Other Party…..…10%
Q3: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I
read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable. (ROTATE)
First, Hillary Clinton
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not Sure
Haven’t Heard Of Her
All
35%
55%
10%
0%
Democrats
58%
30%
12%
0%
Republicans
7%
88%
5%
0%
Independents
19%
62%
19%
0%
All
28%
60%
13%
0%
Democrats
13%
79%
8%
0%
Republicans
42%
39%
20%
0%
Independents
50%
35%
15%
0%
All
25%
52%
23%
<1%
Democrats
19%
57%
23%
0%
Republicans
33%
42%
24%
1%
Independents
29%
57%
14%
0%
All
33%
41%
20%
7%
Democrats
46%
25%
21%
8%
Republicans
11%
66%
17%
6%
Independents
40%
35%
20%
5%
Q4: Next, Donald Trump?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not Sure
Haven’t Heard Of Him
Q5 Jeb Bush.
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not Sure
Haven’t Heard Of Him
Q6: Bernie Sanders?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not Sure
Haven’t Heard Of Her
2
Q7: Now, if the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the race was between
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
Clinton
Trump
Neither/Other (Vol)
Not Sure (Vol)
All
41%
40%
18%
1%
Democrats
69%
13%
17%
2%
Republicans
7%
72%
20%
1%
Independents
19%
62%
19%
0%
Q8: And if the race was between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders who would you vote for?
(OPTIONS ROTATED)
Trump
Sanders
Neither/Other (Vol)
Not Sure (Vol)
All
36%
45%
16%
2%
Democrats
13%
68%
17%
2%
Republicans
64%
16%
17%
4%
Independents
57%
38%
5%
0%
Q9: And if the race was between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush who would you vote for?
(OPTIONS ROTATED)
Clinton
Bush
Neither/Other (Vol)
Not Sure (Vol)
All
45%
46%
7%
3%
Democrats
70%
22%
6%
3%
Republicans
8%
79%
11%
3%
Independents
45%
55%
5%
0%
Q10: And if the race was between Hillary Clinton and Carly Fiorina who would you vote for?
(OPTIONS ROTATED)
Clinton
Fiorina
Neither/Other (Vol)
Not Sure (Vol)
All
42%
39%
13%
6%
Democrats
66%
16%
11%
7%
Republicans
8%
70%
18%
4%
Independents
45%
50%
5%
0%
Q11: And if the race was between Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio who would you vote for?
(OPTIONS ROTATED)
Clinton
Rubio
All
41%
48%
Democrats
68%
21%
3
Republicans
4%
85%
Independents
33%
48%
Neither/Other (Vol)
Not Sure (Vol)
8%
4%
7%
4%
5%
5%
19%
0%
Q12: And if the race was between Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson who would you vote for?
(OPTIONS ROTATED)
Clinton
Carson
Neither/Other (Vol)
Not Sure (Vol)
All
41%
47%
6%
6%
Democrats
67%
21%
4%
8%
Republicans
5%
82%
8%
5%
Independents
40%
50%
10%
0%
Q13: Vice President Joe Biden is considering running for president in 2016. Do you think he
should run for president in 2016 or not run?
Run
Not Run
Not Sure (Vol)
All
46%
44%
10%
Democrats
49%
39%
12%
Republicans
46%
46%
9%
Independents
40%
55%
5%
Next I’m going to read you a list of statements. For each statement I read please tell me if you
strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement.
First:
Q14: Climate Change is a hoax
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
21%
10%
15%
51%
3%
Democrats
11%
7%
9%
71%
2%
Republicans
33%
17%
25%
22%
4%
Independents
31%
6%
11%
53%
0%
Q15: In order to pay down the national debt there should be a one-time 14% tax on wealthy
Americans.
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
25%
24%
12%
29%
9%
Democrats
31%
27%
18%
19%
7%
4
Republicans
18%
20%
8%
43%
11%
Independents
22%
28%
0%
33%
17%
Q16: In order to effectively fight ISIS boots on the ground are necessary.
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
40%
18%
8%
23%
11%
Democrats
25%
18%
9%
33%
15%
Republicans
59%
20%
5%
9%
7%
Independents
50%
11%
6%
22%
11%
Q17: The United States should build a great wall on the southern border and have Mexico pay
for it.
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
26%
9%
13%
48%
4%
Democrats
17%
8%
8%
62%
5%
Republicans
35%
11%
20%
32%
3%
Independents
44%
11%
22%
22%
0%
Q18. The nuclear deal with Iran gives Iran a lot and the United States gets nothing.
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
42%
11%
12%
23%
13%
Democrats
26%
7%
20%
32%
15%
Republicans
62%
15%
4%
8%
11%
Independents
50%
11%
0%
33%
6%
Q19: What is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Donald Trump? (Open
Ended – Coded into Categories)
Arrogant/Abrasive
Jerk/Idiot
Joke/Clown
Businessman
Rich/Successful
Honest
Entertainer/Showman
Flamboyant/Flashy
29%
13%
12%
7%
5%
4%
4%
3%
5
Smart
Strong
Generally Positive
Generally Negative
Other
3%
1%
2%
3%
13%
Next I’m going to read you a series of claims made by Donald Trump. For each of Trumps
claims that I read pleases indicate if you thing the claim is completely true, partially true or
completely false. First: (Rotate)
Q20: That he has become pro-life after years of being pro-choice
Completely True
Partially True
Completely False
Not Sure (Vol)
All
13%
23%
38%
26%
Democrats
11%
13%
48%
29%
Republicans
21%
32%
25%
23%
Independents
0%
44%
39%
17%
Q21: There are 30 million illegal immigrants in the United States
Completely True
Partially True
Completely False
Not Sure (Vol)
All
37%
23%
20%
20%
Democrats
29%
23%
26%
22%
Republicans
45%
25%
12%
18%
Independents
44%
11%
17%
28%
Q22: The United States is the most highly taxed nation in the world.
Completely True
Partially True
Completely False
Not Sure (Vol)
All
30%
11%
44%
15%
Democrats
19%
10%
53%
18%
Republicans
40%
11%
37%
12%
Independents
61%
11%
17%
11%
Republicans
11%
17%
57%
15%
Independents
22%
6%
61%
11%
Q23: John McCain has done nothing to help veterans.
Completely True
Partially True
Completely False
Not Sure (Vol)
All
10%
10%
65%
15%
Democrats
8%
7%
71%
15%
6
Now I would like to read a few descriptions of Donald Trump. For each description I read
please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree
with the description of Donald Trump. First: (Rotate)
Q24: Trump speaks the truth.
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
25%
23%
12%
39%
1%
Democrats
10%
17%
11%
60%
1%
Republicans
39%
31%
14%
15%
1%
Independents
50%
33%
6%
11%
0%
Democrats
56%
22%
11%
9%
2%
Republicans
27%
22%
16%
33%
1%
Independents
17%
33%
6%
39%
6%
Democrats
12%
12%
17%
47%
11%
Republicans
19%
23%
15%
34%
8%
Independents
22%
39%
22%
17%
0%
Democrats
52%
19%
13%
10%
6%
Republicans
25%
18%
15%
38%
4%
Independents
11%
32%
26%
32%
0%
Q25: Trump only cares about himself.
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
42%
22%
13%
21%
1%
Q26: Trump is a real conservative
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
15%
19%
17%
40%
9%
Q27. Trump can’t be trusted.
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
38%
20%
15%
23%
5%
7
Q28: Trump can be elected President of the United States
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Not Sure
All
33%
25%
11%
29%
2%
Democrats
22%
29%
10%
39%
1%
Republicans
47%
18%
15%
16%
4%
Independents
44%
33%
6%
17%
0%
Next I’m going to read a list of functions that a President often performs in office. For each
function that I mention please tell me if you think that Donald Trump
would be excellent, good, fair or poor at performing that function. First: (ROTATE)
Q29. Serving as commander in chief
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Not Sure
All
9%
22%
21%
47%
1%
Democrats
2%
11%
23%
63%
1%
Republicans
15%
37%
18%
27%
3%
Independents
24%
29%
24%
24%
0%
Democrats
3%
14%
16%
64%
3%
Republicans
28%
25%
18%
28%
0%
Independents
22%
17%
28%
33%
0%
Republicans
15%
Independents
6%
Q30. Negotiating with hostile nations
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Not Sure
All
14%
19%
18%
48%
1%
Q31. Working with Congress to get things done
Excellent
All
7%
Democrats
2%
8
Good
Fair
Poor
Not Sure
20%
28%
43%
2%
13%
26%
57%
2%
29%
29%
25%
1%
22%
33%
33%
6%
All
21%
30%
25%
23%
2%
Democrats
10%
29%
27%
30%
3%
Republicans
33%
31%
22%
13%
1%
Independents
33%
33%
17%
17%
0%
Democrats
11%
14%
16%
54%
5%
Republicans
29%
33%
17%
18%
3%
Independents
39%
17%
11%
33%
0%
Democrats
11%
11%
14%
61%
2%
Republicans
32%
19%
22%
25%
1%
Independents
33%
33%
17%
17%
0%
Democrats
1%
7%
18%
71%
Republicans
6%
28%
25%
37%
Independents
17%
22%
28%
33%
Q32.Creating jobs
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Not Sure
Q33. Improving economic conditions for the middle class
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Not Sure
All
20%
22%
16%
39%
3%
Q34. Dealing with illegal immigration
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Not Sure
All
21%
17%
17%
44%
2%
Q35. Improving race relations
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
All
4%
16%
21%
55%
9
Not Sure
3%
3%
4%
0%
DEMOGRAPHICS
Q36: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best
describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?
1. White/Caucasian…………………… 86%
2. African-American………………….. 4%
3. Hispanic……………………………. 6%
4. Latino………………………………. 1%
5. Asian……………………………….. 1%
6. Native American…………………… 0%
7. Mixed race ………………………… 3%
8. or other………………………………..0%
9. Not Sure (Volunteered)………………<1%
Q37: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you
(READ LIST)?
1. Catholic………………………………………… 34%
2. Protestant……………………………………….. 37%
3. Jewish…………………………………………… 2%
4. Muslim………………………………………….. <1%
5. Hindu……………………………………………. <1%
6. Other Religion (Including agnostic)…………….. 18%
7. or Atheist ………………………………………... 7%
8. Not Sure (Volunteered)………………………….. 1%
Q38: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)
1. Less than High School……………………………. 1%
2. High School Graduate……………………………..25%
3. Some college or technical school …………………22%
4. College graduate (4 yr only)……………………….32%
5. Graduate or professional degree…………………...19%
Q39: Which of the following best describes your political beliefs?
10
(READ LIST)
1.Very Conservative…………………………………..18%
2. Somewhat Conservative………………………… 25%
3. Moderate……………………………………………30%
4. Somewhat Liberal…………………………………..16%
5. Very Liberal……………………………………… 10%
6. Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………………. 1%.
Q40: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?
1. Under $20,000……………………………………….9%
2. $20,000-$40,000……………………………………17%
3. $40,000-$60,000……………………………………18%.
4. $60,000-$80,000……………………………………12%
5. $80,000-$100,000…………………………………..15%
6. Over $100,000………………………………………24%.
7. Not Sure (Volunteered)………………………………4%
Q41: Thank you for your help with the survey. We appreciate your time.
(GENDER DETERMINED BY VOICE RECOGNITION)
1. Male…………..48%
2. Female………..52%
,
11