The Morning Call/ Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion SURVEY OF LEHIGH VALLEY REACTION TO THE 10th ANNIVERSARY OF THE TERRORIST ATTACKS OF SEPTEMBER 11th, 2001 KEY FINDINGS REPORT September 12, 2011 1 PART ONE KEY FINDINGS: 1. Ten years after the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001 Lehigh Valley residents have become less concerned about the possibility of a similar attack affecting themselves or their families, yet a significant portion of Valley citizens have continued to alter aspects of their life since the tragic events of a decade ago. 2. A majority of the residents in Lehigh and Northampton Counties approve of the way that President Obama is handling terrorism, but only about 1 in 3 residents thinks the United states is winning the broader war on terror. 3. Nearly 1 in 3 Lehigh Valley residents indicated that they are less willing to fly than they were before the 9/11 attacks. While this number remains substantial it is only half the level set in the weeks after the attacks in 2001. 4. While most local residents do not expect an attack on the scale of the 9/11 strike to occur in the next year, a majority anticipate such an attack to occur sometime in the next decade. 5. About 3 in 10 survey respondents acknowledged that their views about ArabAmericans have changed since the attacks of a decade ago. With Republicans more likely than Democrats or independents to have had their views about this group altered by the events of 9/11. 6. A majority of residents in the region report that they are willing to sacrifice some of their personal freedoms to gain increased protection from terrorism, yet most also think the federal government has taken away too many rights in its effort to combat terrorist threats. METHODOLOGY: The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a telephone survey of residents of the Lehigh Valley between August 30th and September 6, 2011. Individual households in both Lehigh and Northampton counties were selected randomly for inclusion in the study. The sample of phone numbers used in the survey was generated by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, PA. Interviewing was conducted by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and PMI of Easton with 421 surveys completed. This number of completions results in a margin of error of +/- 5.% at the 95% confidence interval. Percentages throughout the survey have been rounded upward at the .5 mark, thus many totals in the results will not equal 100%. The survey questionnaire was designed by Christopher Borick, Ph.D. of the Muhlenberg 2 College Institute of Public Opinion in consultation with staff members of the Morning Call. Analysis and report writing were completed by Michael Wiener of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion under the direction of Dr. Borick. SECTION ONE: Opinions on Terrorism: A Decade Later Ten years after the devastating terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001, the lingering effects of that day continue to impact the attitudes, beliefs and behaviors of residents of the Lehigh Valley. While there has clearly been a shift in the level of concern regarding terrorist attacks since those frightening and confusing days after the terrorist strikes a decade ago, the marks of that day can be seen in the results of this survey of Lehigh Valley residents. Over the last ten years there has been a steady decline in the percentage of Valley residents expressing a high degree of concern about terrorism directly striking either their family or themselves with only 14% of Lehigh Valley adults indicating they are very concerned about this possibility. This marks an 18 point decrease in the percent of local citizens maintaining high levels of apprehension regarding this matter since September of 2001. TABLE ONE “How concerned are you that you or your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack in the future? “ Sept. 01 Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Very Concerned Not Concerned at All Don’t Know Oct/Nov. 01 Sept. 02 Sept. 03 Sept. 06 Sept. 11 32% 21% 19% 12% 17% 14% 41% 41% 46% 48% 48% 39% 23% 32% 27% 28% 26% 30% 3% 5% 8% 11% 8% 16% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% Despite relatively few Valley residents indicating that they are very concerned for the personal and family safety, local residents are split among political party and gender about whether they feel a risk from traveling to major cities such as NYC or flying on an airline. For example the series of Tables 2 through 4 provide insight into the views of 3 Lehigh valley residents regarding willingness to travel by air. Table 2 illustrates the trend as related to willingness to travel on an airline while tables 3 and 4 illustrate political party and gender differences for the same question. Nearly 1 in 3 Lehigh Valley residents indicated that they are less willing to fly than they were before the 9/11 attacks. While this number remains substantial it is only half the level set in the weeks after the attacks in 2001. TABLE TWO “Have you been less willing to travel on an airline since the attacks of September 11th?” Sept. 01 Yes No Not Sure Oct/Nov. 01 46% 51% 2% 62% 36% 3% Sept. 02 Sept. 03 Sept. 06 39% 58% 2% 34% 65% 1% 37% 61% 2% Sept. 11 31% 67% 2% Notably, Republicans in the Lehigh Valley are more likely than their Democrat and independent counterparts to indicate that they are less willing to board a plane since the terrorist strikes of a decade ago. Similarly, females in the region are more likely to avoid air travel than males, with 36% of women stating this position in comparison with only 26% of men. TABLE THREE Crosstab of “less willing to travel on an airline” as compared to Political affiliation Yes Democrat Republican Independent Total No 22% 41% 29% 31% Not Sure (VOL) 2% 2% 0% 2% 76% 57% 71% 67% Total 157 134 65 420 surveyed TABLE FOUR Crosstab of “less willing to travel on an airline” as compared to Gender Yes Male Female Total No 26% 36% 31% 73% 61% 67% 4 Not Sure 2% 3% 2% Total 205 216 421 surveyed SECTION TWO: Opinions on those of Arab descent in America after September 11, 2001. Ten years after the terrorist attacks orchestrated by Osama Bin Laden, Lehigh Valley residents are still split as to whether the attacks changed their view of Arabs in America. The chart below shows that there has been a six point drop in those that say the attacks have changed their views in those of Arab descent in America. TABLE FIVE Have the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001 affected the way you view individuals of Arab origin that are citizens or residents of the United States? September 2006 39% 57% 4% 0% Yes No Not Sure Refused September 2011 33% 64% 3% <1% A closer analysis of this question showed a split between how those of different political party and those of different age groups answered this question. The crosstabs for each are below. 43 % of Republicans interviewed said that their view of individuals of Arab origin that are American citizens or residents changed because of the 9/11 attacks. This is 8 points higher than Independents asked the same question and 16 points higher than Democrats. TABLE SIX Crosstab of “attack on way you view individuals of Arab origin that are American citizens or residents” as compared to political affiliation Democrat Republican Independent Total Yes 27% 43% 35% 33% No 70% 54% 65% 64% Not Sure 3% 3% 0% 3% 5 Refused 1% 0% 0% 1% SECTION THREE: Presidential Handling of the War on Terror Those Lehigh Valley residents interviewed have shown a higher approval rating for how President Barack Obama is handling the war and terrorism in comparison to how President George Bush was handling the situation in 2006. Besides the change in President, these past five years have also seen an exit strategy for US troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan and the killing of Osama Bin Laden by Seal Team VI in May of 2011. TABLE SEVEN Bush vs. Obama approval rating for dealing with terrorism and Homeland Security Approve Disapprove Not Sure Refuse Bush September 2006 37% 52% 0% 0% Obama September 2011 51% 36% 12% 1% President Obama’s generally positive standing in the Lehigh Valley in terms of his handling of terrorism is nearly the inverse of his overall standing, with only 37% of Valley residents approving of Obama’s handling of his job. SECTION FOUR: American’s Rights: How many rights should Americans sacrifice for protection from terrorism A section of the survey dealt with whether respondents were willing to give up some of their rights so that the American government could better protect its public form terrorist attacks. The survey also asked questions about whether actions taken in the past had restricted the American people’s constitutional rights too much or the necessary amount to protect this country from future terrorist attacks. Below are various crosstabs that analyze responses to these questions in the survey, both when these questions were compared with each other as well as against a variety of demographic questions. 6 TABLE EIGHT Willingness to give up rights compared to opinion that government has violated too many Constitutional rights of individuals in its fight for terrorism Agreement with the statement “The Federal Government has violated too many Constitutional rights of individuals in its attempt to fight terrorism. Agreement with the statement “I Strongly agree Somewhat am willing to give agree up some of my Somewhat personal rights in Disagree order to prevent Strongly future terrorist attacks disagree Not Sure Total Strongly agree 17% Somewhat Somewhat agree disagree 21% 29% Strongly disagree 32% Not Sure 1% Total 72 12% 34% 40% 10% 5% 164 20% 41% 24% 7% 9% 71 55% 17% 14% 8% 7% 102 15% 25% 15% 28% 31% 29% 0% 12% 39% 6% 12 421 Table Eight shows a strong correlation among Lehigh Valley residents that were surveyed who were willing to give up some of their rights and those who thought that the government had not violated too many of their rights. Conversely, there is also a strong correlation between those who think the government has gone too far and those who are not willing to give up their rights. TABLE NINE Voting Status compared to agreement with statement that the Federal Government has violated too many Constitutional rights of individuals in its attempt to fight terrorism Democrat Republican Independent Total Strongly agree 20% 26% 28% 25% Somewhat agree 35% 21% 29% 28% Somewhat disagree 31% 32% 19% 29% Strongly disagree 11% 12% 17% 12% Not Sure Total 4% 8% 8% 6% 158 133 65 421 Democrats were significantly more likely than Republicans to say that they strongly or somewhat agreed that the federal Government had violated too many rights, but a majority of citizens in each political category at least somewhat agreed with this position. 7 TABLE TEN Voting Status compared to agreement with statement that the Federal Government is doing a good job preventing future terrorist attacks Democrat Republican Independent Total Strongly agree 25% 16% 28% 21% Somewhat agree 55% 45% 37% 46% Somewhat disagree 13% 19% 14% 16% Strongly disagree 4% 15% 17% 11% Not Sure Total 3% 6% 5% 5% 158 135 65 423 surveyed Christopher P. Borick Director, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion Michael A. Wiener Research Analyst, Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion 8 Morning Call/Muhlenberg College 9/11 Anniversary Survey Morning Call/Muhlenberg College 9/11 Anniversary Survey Release Date: September 11th 2011 Date of Interviewing: August 30th to September 6th, 2011 Population: Lehigh and Northampton Counties in PA. Number of Completed Surveys: 421 Margin of Error +/- 5% at 95% level of confidence Frequency totals may exceed 100% due to rounding at .5 Data Weighted by Gender, County, Income and Race. Comparisons made with September 2001 survey of 300, November 2001 survey of 305, September 2002 survey of 308, September 2003 of 300, and September 2006 sample of 425. Q1. In which of the following categories does your current age fall? September 2011 1. 18-29………………8% 2. 30-49………………23% 3. 50-65………………32% 4. Or over 65………….36% 5. Refused (VOL)…….1% Q2. What county do you currently reside in? September 2006 1. Lehigh County………50% 2. Northampton County...49% 3. Other…………………2% 4. Not Sure……………...0% 5. Refuse………………..0% September 2011 1. Lehigh County………55% 2. Northampton County...45% 3. Other…………………0% 4. Not Sure……………...0% 5. Refuse………………..0% Trend Sept. 01 54% Lehigh Northampton 46% Oct/Nov. 01 60% 40% Sept. 02 53% 47% 9 Sept. 03 52% 48% Sept. 06 50% 49% Sept. 11 55% 45% Q3. Next, I would like you to provide your opinion on the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he is doing his job. First, President Barack Obama 1. 2. 3. 4. Approve…………….37% Disapprove………….48% No Opinion (VOL)….14% Refused (VOL)……..2% Q4. Senator Pat Toomey? 1. 2. 3. 4. Approve…………….35% Disapprove………….29% No Opinion (VOL)….34% Refused (VOL)……..2% Q5. Senator Bob Casey Jr.? 1. 2. 3. 4. Approve…………….33% Disapprove………….21% No Opinion (VOL)….44% Refused (VOL)……..2% Q6. Governor Tom Corbett? 1. 2. 3. 4. Approve…………….40% Disapprove………….25% No Opinion (VOL)….33% Refused (VOL)……..2% Q7. and Congressman Charlie Dent? 1. 2. 3. 4. Approve…………….51% Disapprove………….20% No Opinion (VOL)….27% Refused (VOL)……..2% 10 Q8. Do you think that, as a country, we are safer from terrorist attacks, about as safe, or less safe from terrorist attacks than we were before September 11, 2001?" September 2006 1. Safer…………………..32% 2. About as Safe………….37% 3. Less Safe………………27% 4. Not Sure (Volunteered)..3% 5. Refuse (Volunteered)…. September 2011 1. Safer…………………..39% 2. About as Safe…………39% 3. Less Safe………………20% 4. Not Sure (Volunteered)..2% 5. Refuse (Volunteered)….0% Q9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling terrorism and homeland security? Bush September 2006 1. Approve……37% 2. Disapprove…52% 3. Not Sure……0% 4. Refuse………0% Obama September 2011 1. Approve……51% 2. Disapprove…36% 3. Not Sure……12% 4. Refuse………1% Q10. How concerned are you that you or your family will become a victim of a terrorist attack in the future? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned or not concerned at all? September 2006 1. Very concerned……….17% 2. Somewhat concerned….48% 3. Not very concerned……26% 4. Not concerned at all……8% 5. Not sure………………1% 6. Refused……………….0% September 2011 1. Very concerned……….14% 2. Somewhat concerned…39% 3. Not very concerned……30% 4. Not concerned at all……16% 5. Not sure………………1% 6. Refused………………0% Trend Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Very Concerned Not Concerned at All Don’t Know Sept. 01 Oct/Nov. 01 Sept. 02 Sept. 03 Sept. 06 Sept. 11 32% 21% 19% 12% 17% 14% 41% 41% 46% 48% 48% 39% 23% 32% 27% 28% 26% 30% 3% 5% 8% 11% 8% 16% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 11 Q11. Are you concerned about the possibility of a terrorist attack in your community? September 2006 1. Yes……..18% 2. No……...79% 3. Not sure…4% 4. Refuse……0% September 2011 1. Yes……..18% 2. No……...81% 3. Not sure…2% 4. Refuse……0% Trend Sept. 01 Yes No Not Sure 31% 62% 7% Oct/Nov. 01 30% 66% 4% Sept. 02 Sept. 03 Sept. 06 Sept. 11 24% 72% 4% 23% 76% 2% 18% 79% 4% 18% 81% 2% Q12. Have you changed any aspect of your personal life in order to reduce your risk of becoming a victim of terrorism since the attacks of September 11th 2001? September 2006 1. Yes……..28% 2. No……...72% 3. Not sure...1% 4. Refuse…..0% September 2011 1. Yes……..29% 2. No……...71% 3. Not sure...0% 4. Refuse…..0% Trend Sept. 01 Yes No Not Sure 33% 61% 6% Oct/Nov. 01 26% 73% 1% Sept. 02 Sept. 03 Sept. 06 Sept. 11 24% 75% 1% 21% 79% <1% 28% 72% 4% 29% 71% <1% Q13. Are you less willing to travel on an airline since the attacks of September 11th 2001? September 2006 1. Yes……..37% 2. No……...61% 3. Not sure...1% 4. Refuse…..1% September 2011 1. Yes……..31% 2. No……...67% 3. Not sure...2% 4. Refuse….0% 12 Trend Sept. 01 Yes No Not Sure 62% 36% 3% Oct/Nov. 01 46% 51% 2% Sept. 02 Sept. 03 Sept. 06 Sept. 11 39% 58% 2% 34% 65% 1% 37% 61% 2% 31% 67% 2% Q14. Are you less willing to travel to major urban areas such as New York City since the attacks of September 11th, 2001? September 2006 1. Yes……..26% 2. No……...73% 3. Not sure...1% 4. Refuse…..0% September 2011 1. Yes……..21% 2. No……...77% 3. Not sure...2% 4. Refuse….0% Trend Sept. 01 Yes No Not Sure 39% 62% 7% Oct/Nov. 01 NA NA NA Sept. 02 Sept. 03 Sept. 06 Sept. 11 20% 78% 3% 21% 78% 2% 26% 73% 1% 21% 77% 2% Q15. Have the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001 affected the way you view individuals of Arab origin that are citizens or residents of the United States? September 2006 1. Yes……..39% 2. No……...57% 3. Not sure...4% 4. Refuse…..0% September 2011 1. Yes……..33% 2. No……...64% 3. Not sure...3%% 4. Refuse….<1% Trend Sept. 01 Yes No Not Sure 21% 75% 4% Oct/Nov. 01 28% 68% 5% Sept. 02 Sept. 03 Sept. 06 Sept. 11 30% 65% 5% 30% 64% 6% 39% 57% 4% 33% 64% 3% 13 Q16. How meaningful do you think the color-coded terror alert system is in informing Americans of the risk of a terrorist attack? Do you think it is very meaningful, somewhat meaningful, not very meaningful, or not meaningful at all? September 2006 1. Very meaningful………14% 2. Somewhat meaningful…50% 3. Not very meaningful…..22% 4. Not meaningful at all….14% 5. Not sure……………….1% 6. Refuse………………….0% September 2011 1. Very meaningful………11% 2. Somewhat meaningful…42% 3. Not very meaningful…..24% 4. Not meaningful at all….21% 5. Not sure……………….2% 6. Refuse………………….0% Trend Very meaningful Somewhat meaningful Not very meaningful Not meaningful at all Not sure Sept. 03 10% 52% 22% 17% 2% Sept. 06 14% 50% 22% 14% 1% Sept. 11 11% 42% 24% 21% 2% Q17. Next, I would like to read a few statements regarding efforts by the government to prevent terrorism in the U.S. For each statement I read please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with that statement. First, I am willing to give up some of my personal rights in order to prevent future terrorist attacks. September 2006 1. Strongly agree……34% 2. Somewhat agree….30% 3. Somewhat disagree…13% 4. Strongly disagree……18% 5. Not sure……………..4% 6. Refuse……………….1% September 2011 1. Strongly agree……17% 2. Somewhat agree….39% 3. Somewhat disagree…17% 4. Strongly disagree……24% 5. Not sure……………..3% 6. Refuse………………0% Trend Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure Sept. 02 30% 37% 12% 16% 5% Sept. 03 23% 44% 12% 18% 3% 14 Sept. 06 34% 30% 13% 18% 5% Sept. 11 17% 39% 17% 24% 3% Q18. The Federal Government has violated too many Constitutional rights of individuals in its attempt to fight terrorism. September 2006 1. Strongly agree……25% 2. Somewhat agree….21% 3. Somewhat disagree…26% 4. Strongly disagree……23% 5. Not sure……………..4% 6. Refuse……………….1% September 2011 1. Strongly agree……….25% 2. Somewhat agree…….28% 3. Somewhat disagree…29% 4. Strongly disagree……12% 5. Not sure……………….6% 6. Refuse………………..0% Trend Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure Sept. 02 10% 21% 30% 30% 8% Sept. 03 19% 30% 24% 23% 4% Sept. 06 25% 21% 26% 23% 5% Sept. 11 25% 28% 29% 12% 6% Q19. The Federal Government is doing a good job preventing future terrorist attacks. September 2006 1. Strongly agree……18% 2. Somewhat agree….40% 3. Somewhat disagree…19% 4. Strongly disagree……17% 5. Not sure……………..5% 6. Refuse……………….0% September 2011 1. Strongly agree………21% 2. Somewhat agree…….46% 3. Somewhat disagree…16% 4. Strongly disagree……11% 5. Not sure……………..6% 6. Refuse………………0% Trend Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure Sept. 02 19% 50% 12% Sept. 03 18% 53% 12% Sept. 06 18% 40% 19% Sept. 11 21% 46% 16% 9% 10% 10% 8% 17% 5% 11% 6% 15 Q20. How likely do you think it is that an act of terrorism will occur somewhere in the United States in the next 12months? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely? September 2006 1. Very likely………….26% 2. Somewhat likely……56% 3. Somewhat unlikely…11% 4. Very unlikely……….4% 5. Not sure…………….4% 6. Refused……………..0% September 2011 1. Very likely………….15% 2. Somewhat likely……44% 3. Somewhat unlikely…29% 4. Very unlikely……….9% 5. Not sure…………….2% 6. Refused…………….0% Q21. What is the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the scale of the 9/11 attacks occuring in the United States on the following time frames? is it no chance, very unlikely, somewhat unlikely, somewhat likely, very likely, or certain? By the end of 2011 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. No Chance……………….9% Very Unlikely……………28% Somewhat Unlikely……...26% Somewhat Likely………..27% Very Likely……………...5% Certain…………………..2% Not Sure (VOL)…………3% Refused (VOL)………….0% Q22. By the end of 2016 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. No Chance……………….3% Very Unlikely……………12% Somewhat Unlikely……...16% Somewhat Likely………..38% Very Likely……………...17% Certain…………………..5% Not Sure (VOL)…………9% Refused (VOL)………….0% Q23. By the end of 2021 1. 2. 3. 4. No Chance……………….3% Very Unlikely……………11% Somewhat Unlikely……...12% Somewhat Likely………..30% 16 5. 6. 7. 8. Very Likely……………...22% Certain…………………..7% Not Sure (VOL)…………16% Refused (VOL)………….0% Q24. If the United States removed its troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, do you think the threat of terrorist attacks on United States soil would increase or decrease? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Increase……………………………….32% Decrease………………………………21% No Effect/Stay the Same (VOL)……..40% Not Sure (VOL)………………………8% Refused (VOL)………………………0% Q25. Who do you think is winning the war against terrorism- The United States and its allies, neither side, or the terrorists? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The US and Allies……….....39% Neither Side………………..46% The Terrorists ……………..9% Not Sure (VOL)……………6% Refused (VOL)……………0% Q26. What is your current marital status? September 2011 1. Single………………………16% 2. Married…………………….62% 3. Separated…………………..1% 4. Divorced…………………...5% 5. Widowed ………………….12% 6. Partnered…………………..2% 7. Not Sure (VOL)……………0% 8. Refused (VOL)…………….2% Q27. Which of the following categories describes your current voting status? September 2011 1. Democrat……………………………37% 2. Republican………………………….32% 3. Independent…………………………16% 4. Other Party………………………….3% 5. Not registered to Vote in PA……….8% 6. Not Sure…………………………….1% 7. Refused……………………………..4% 17 Q28. What is your highest level of education? September 2011 1. Less than High School………………..4% 2. High School Graduate………………..28% 3. Some College or technical school…….25% 4. College Graduate……………………..28% 5. Graduate or Professional Degree……..14% 6. Not Sure ………………………………0% 7. Refused……………………………….1% Q29. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? September 2011 1. White/Caucasian…………..87% 2. African-American………..4% 3. Hispanic………………….4% 4. Latino……………………1% 5. Asian……………………..1% 6. Native American…………1% 7. Mixed Race……………...1% 8. Or other………………….0% 9. Not Sure…………………0% 10. Refused…………………..2% Q30. Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? September 2011 1. Catholic………………………………..30% 2. Protestant……………………………...44% 3. Jewish………………………………….2% 4. Muslim…………………………………0% 5. Other religion (including agnostic)……10% 6. Or Atheist……………………………..2% 7. Not Sure (VOL)……………………….7% 8. Refused (VOL)………………………..5% Q31. Which of the following categories best describes your family income? September 2011 1. Under $20,000……………11% 2. $20 - $40,000……………..18% 3. $40 - $60,000……………..16% 4. $60 - $80,000……………..8% 5. $80 - $100,000……………6% 18 6. Over $100,000……………15% 7. Not Sure (VOL)…………..2% 8. Refused (VOL)…………..24% Q32. Gender September 2011 1. Male………………..49% 2. Female……………..51% 19