Initiatives of the Philippine Statistical System
in the Compilation and Dissemination of
Flash Indicators to Monitor the Country’s
Economic Performance
by
Mr. Candido J. Astrologo, Jr.
OIC-Director
National Statistical Information Center
National Statistical Coordination Board
Republic of the Philippines
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
1
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Outline of Presentation
I. Introduction
II. Initiatives on flash indicators
A. Data frameworks
B. The NSCB Task Force on Flash Indicators
C. Compilation and Dissemination Sytems
III. Issues and Concerns
IV. The Way Forward
2
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Introduction
The Philippine Statistical System
government-wide system of providing statistical
information and services to the public
A decentralized statistical system composed of:





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a policy-making body
data producers
data users
a research and training institution
data providers
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Introduction
The Philippine Statistical System
Framework of Coordination
Legislative
Office
Executive
Office
Training, Education
and Research
Institutions
Policy-making/
Coordinating
Agency
Data Users
Data Producers
Data Suppliers/
Respondents
4
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Introduction
The Philippine Statistical System
Major Statistical Agencies
produces generalpurpose statistics
National
Statistics
Office
produces
agricultural
statistics
Bureau of
Agricultural
Statistics
Bureau of
Labor and
Employment
Statistics
National
Statistical
Coordination
Board
produces money
and banking
statistics
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Bangko
Sentral ng
Pilipinas
Policy-making
and coordinating
body
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
Statistical
Research
and
Training
Center
Produces
establishmentbased labor
and
employment
statistics
conducts shortterm courses in
statistics and
researches to
enhance
methodologies,
concepts, etc.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Introduction
The National Statistical Coordination Board
Executive Order 121 – January 30, 1987
Reorganizing the Philippine Statistical System
and for Other Purposes
• Created the NSCB as the highest policy-making
and coordinating body on statistical matters in the
country
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks
1. Regional Economic Situationer:
Rapid Appraisal of the Regional Economy
2. Leading Economic Indicators System
3. National Summary Data Page
4. Expectations Survey
5. Task Force on Flash Indicators
to Address the Global Financial Crisis
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks
II.A.1 Regional Economic Situationer
Provides up-to-date information as basis for quick
remedial actions and policy interventions
 Hard Indicators
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
CPI and Inflation Rate
Electrical porduction/consumption
Vehicle registration
Rice sufficiency
Tourist arrivals
Retrenchment and Workers Displaced
Number of Shipcalls
Passengers: Air and Sea
 Rapid Appraisal of the Regional Economy
personal interview of key informants to obtain a general
perception or "gut feel" of the regional economic
performance
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks
II.A.2. Leading Economic Indicator System
• Serves as a basis for short-term forecasting of
the macroeconomic activity in the country
• Involves a study of the behavior of indicators
that consistently move upward or downward
before the actual expansion or contraction
of overall economic activity
• Provides advance information on the
direction of the country’s economic
activity/performance in the short run
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks
II.A.2. Leading Economic Indicator System (cont)
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•
Compiled by the NSCB to generate the
Composite LEI
•
Contains 11 indicators:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
consumer price index
electric energy consumption
exchange rate
hotel occupancy rate
money supply
number of new business incorporations
stock price index
terms of trade index
total merchandise imports
tourist arrivals, and
wholesale price index
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – A. Data Frameworks
II.A.3. National Summary Data Page
• Contains data described in IMF’s DSBB and
SDDS
• Compilation of time series data shows trends of
various economic indicators
II.A.4. Expectations Survey (Business and Consumer)
Business
• 1,242 entrepreneurs
from the Top 7,000
corporations
• basis for forecasting
short-term business
cycles
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
Consumer
• 5,448 households
(nationwide)
• short-term outlook of
households and turning
points in their spending
patterns
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force
5. Task Force on Flash Indicators
to Address the Global Financial Crisis (TFFI)
Background
SouthEast Asia
• slowdown of growth
• worsening of
macroeconomic balances
• huge inflationary pressures
Philippines
crisis will last longer and “should plan for 2009
to 2010 and leave something for 2011”
• Slowdown in overseas remittances
growth
• Drop in exports and capital flows
• Exchange rate volatility
• Drop in equity prices
• Rise in risk premium
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
Calls for action
on the part of the
Philippine
Statistical System
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force
Creating a Task Force on Flash Indicators
to Address the Global Financial Crisis (TFFI)
(NSCB Memo Order No. 008-2009)
Functions
• Identify and generate “flash” indicators for key
economic variables on a daily, weekly or monthly basis
generated by government offices
• Recommend a dissemination system to ensure that the
indicators are made available to the public
• Monitor the generation of the indicators in terms of
availability and timeliness
• Recommend statistical policies to the NSCB Executive
Board for the institutionalization of the compilation of
the “flash” indicators
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force
Creating a Task Force on Flash Indicators
to Address the Global Financial Crisis (TFFI)
(NSCB Memo Order No. 008-2009)
Composition
Chair
Co-Chair
: Director, National Planning and Policy Staff, NEDA
: Director, Economic Statistics Office, NSCB
Members: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Dep’t of Finance
Dep’t of Budget and Management
Dep’t of Labor and Employment
Dep’t of Trade and Industry
Export Development Council
National Statistics Office
Securities and Exchange Commission
Secretariat: NSCB Technical Staff
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force
Data Framework
Flash Indicators
- Available on a monthly basis
- Has time lag of not more than 3
months
- Available series since Jan 2007
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force
Identified Flash Indicators
Prices
Production
• Inflation Rate
• Headline, Core
• NCR, AONCR
• Food, Non-Food
• Price Indices
• WPI, PPI
• Prices: Oil, Basic
Commodities
• Volume of
Production Index,
Value of
Production Index,
Capacity
Utilization
• Cement
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
Employment
• Affected workers
• Displaced:
permanent
separations,
temporary
layoffs
• flexible work
arrangements
• OFWs: Displaced,
Deployed
Sales
• Electrical
Consumption
• Cars
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force
Identified Flash Indicators
External Sector
• Exports: Agri,
Electronic
• Imports: Raw
materials, capital
goods
• Balance of Payments
• Overall BOP, Current
Acct, Capital and
Financial Accounts,
Net Direct
Investments, Export
of Services, Book to
Bill Ratio
• OFW remittances
• Gross International
Reserves
• International
Investment Position
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National Government
Cash Operations
• Revenues: Tax, Non-tax
• Expenditures
• Balance Surplus/
Deficit
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
Money and Banking
• Lending rate
• 91-day Treasury Bills
• Fixed-rate Treasury
Bonds
• BSP Rate: Rediscount,
Policy: Lending,
Borrowing
• Phisix Index
• Peso-Dollar Rate
• Loans: Outstanding
Loans: Real Estate,
Manufacturing; Nonperforming,
commercial
• Credit card
transactions
Tourism
• Hotel occupancy
• Tourist arrivals
• Tourist receipts
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – B. Task Force
Identified Flash Indicators
Metadata
•
•
•
•
•
•
Definition
Unit description
Data source
Revision policy
Schedule of release
Remarks
References
• NSCB Resolutions – Official Concepts and
Definitions for Statistical Purposes
• International Organizations
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – C. Compilation and Dissemination
Data template
Agency 1
Data template
Agency 2
Data template
Agency n
Compilation
• Use of data template
• Updates e-mailed to NSCB
• Updates stored in database
Dissemination
NSCB Technical Staff
• When: Upon schedule of
release of data from source
agency
• Where: NSCB website; links
from agency websites
Update webpage
NSCB TS
Website
Agency 1
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
Website
Agency 2
Website
Agency n
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. Initiatives on Flash Indicators – C. Compilation and Dissemination
Website on Philippine Flash Indicators
Contents
Time Series Tables and Charts
Calendar of Release
Metadata
StatWatch
Guide for analysis
•
•
•
•
•
• RSS feeds
• Press Releases
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/flash
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
III. Issues and Concerns
• Unavailability of higher frequency indicators:
unemployment, compensation, revenues,
bankruptcies/closures, investments
• Long time lag of monthly indicators
• Distinct indicators
Need for composite? Turning points?
• Clearance for release
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
IV. Way Forward
• Institutionalization
framework and systems; early warning indicator system
• Policies and interventions:
improvement of time lag, generation of more higherfrequency indicators
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Thank you!
URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph
e-mail: info@nscb.gov.ph
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International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
CJAJ/PH/27-29 May 2009, Ottawa, Canada
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD