INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON TIMELINESS,
METHODOLOGY AND COMPARABILITY OF
RAPID ESTIMATES OF ECONOMIC TRENDS
Session 6 Summary
REVISIONS IN QUARTERLY GDP OF OECD
COUNTRIES: AN UPDATE
AC188-S62a
OECD Revisions Analysis
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examines the revisions histories of eighteen OECD
member countries for the first estimates of constant
prices, seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP
growth rates
methodology can be used to test hypothesis that an
increase in timeliness for official statistics leads to an
increase in revisions and a decrease in quality
uses mean absolute revision and relative mean
absolute revision to take into account the average size
of growth in a given period for a given country as high
growth numbers result in higher absolute revisions
OECD Revisions Analysis
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well established and documented methodology
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uses extensive data holdings of OECD
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tools available free from the OECD - links to
programs included
OECD Revisions Analysis
Typical use is for ongoing series such as
quarterly GDP, comparing first estimate
compared to three years later but methodology
could be useful to see if quality drops e.g. with
the introduction of more timely estimates.
Indicators for long-term developments
Eurostat
AC188-S63
Structural indicators
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focus on growth and jobs
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79 indicators arranged within 6 themes
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very high visibility of these indicators (APR,
most consulted tables on the Website)
can compare countries and country to EU
Sustainable development indicators
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Measuring progress is integral part of the EU
strategy
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use 130 indicators covering 10 themes and 11
headline indicators
Main output:
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Indicators on the Website
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Biennial monitoring report of the EU SDS
PEEIs
EuroIND and the Euro-indicators/PEEIs tables are structured in
eight main groups:
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Balance of payments
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Business and consumer surveys
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Consumer prices
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External trade
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Industry, commerce and services
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Labour market
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Monetary and financial indicators
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National accounts
Aggregated and national data on web with access/ graphing etc tools.
Dissemination
Datasets appear to have developed separately,
but in general:
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readily available on web
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linked metadata available
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aggregated and national data available for a
selection of periods
standard outputs plus user selectable datasets
sophisticated tables/ graphs/ cross
classifications available
World Bank Country At A Glance Tables on
Recent Economic and Financial Indicators
AC188-S64
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monitoring the rapidly evolving global financial
crisis requires current or near current, high
frequency data
lots of such data available, but in different
places and only for high-income and large
developing economies
to meet emerging needs, the World Bank has
developed Country At A Glance - Recent
Economic and Financial Indicators (AAG-REFI)
AAG-REFI
includes indicators covering the external sector,
financial sector, fiscal sector, and real sector
that help to measure the vulnerability of
countries to shocks arising from a sudden drop
in private capital flows, volatility in primary
commodity prices, and the emergence of stress
in financial markets
AAG-REFI
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available for twenty two developing countries
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one or two month lag in most data
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readily accessible through standard
presentations
World Bank High Frequency Data Sources
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GEM website – macroeconomic, financial and
commodity data for high income and emerging
countries
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JEDH / QEDS – external debt data
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Lots more – see paper
Some messages:
Dissemination and communication
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Most recommendations apply whether we are in a
crisis or not i.e. we should probably be doing all this
anyway, but the crisis highlights the issues.
data hard to access despite best efforts of
international organisations
priority is to make visible existing data
lots of data out there – if more collected/ disseminated,
there is a risk of plethora of datasets
is there too much data?
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need to guide users to the most relevant data in
the sea of data
however, what is relevant may change quickly
make metadata visible, but don't swamp the
data
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if it needs lots of caveats, is it fit to publish?
coordination is important if data is to be
approved/ disseminated quickly and more than
one agency is involved
talk to users - then talk to them again
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International organisations duplicate data
collection and holding - data often old
however, there are some gains in this area e.g.
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http//:principalglobalindicators.org
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www.jedh.org
International Organisations make an enormous
contribution in setting standards e.g. SNA
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How to present data:
user friendly - electronic straight to spreadsheet (not
necessarily fancy and complex)
focus on month on month/ quarter on quarter rather
than annual changes
seasonally adjusted and trend – upfront and visible
(but down to what level of detail?)
focus on price/ volume measures
prices contain best market signals
packaged presentations like StatCan story are useful.
publish methodology/ metadata
educate users
Who disseminates?
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only talking about data which is disseminated
(what is status of data “for internal use only”?)
NSO - collected data (including leading
indicators)
who should do forecasts?
there is a role for commercial data providers
a rigid framework/ list of indicators may be of
limited use, because we don't know what is
coming next, so needs may change quickly
Bits:
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GDP(A)
There are well established methodologies to
test quality of rapid estimates e.g. OECD tools
Centres of excellence? e.g. OECD for revisions
analysis
Don Drummond: "I would rather have no data
than wrong data."